The Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins face off in MLB action on Wednesday night.
These AL Central rivals are technically still in the wild-card hunt but would need a miracle to get there. This is the second contest in a three-game set at Target Field in Minneapolis with the home side blanking Chicago 4-0 last night.
MLB betting lines hit the board with this game at close to a pick'em with the White Sox as slim -115 road faves. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for White Sox vs. Twins on September 28.
White Sox vs Twins best odds
White Sox vs Twins picks and predictions
The White Sox have been cold at the dish lately, but one player who has been making solid contact is Eloy Jimenez, who leads the club with a slugging percentage of .511 and has upped that number to .614 this month.
Jimenez hit 31 dingers and drove in 79 runs in just 122 games as a rookie in 2019 and followed up on that with a Silver Slugger campaign in 2020 where he slashed .296/.332/.559.
He missed most of last season due to an injury and, after a slow start to this year, suffered a torn hamstring in April that knocked him out of the lineup for six weeks. He began to hit his groove a few weeks after rejoining the team and has slashed .340/.409/.578 with 13 homers and 10 doubles in 59 games since the All-Star break.
With Minnesota rookie Josh Winder and his expected slugging percentage of .460 (bottom 10th percentile of all MLB pitchers) toeing the rubber today, I'm backing the Over 1.5 total bases for Jimenez at plus money.
My best bet: Eloy Jimenez Over 1.5 total bases (+132)
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White Sox vs Twins moneyline analysis
It's been a disappointing year for both clubs. The White Sox entered as +1,000 contenders to win the World Series but have lost seven in a row and are now 7.5 games behind the Mariners for the final AL wild card with just eight games left in the season.
The Twins were seven games above .500 in the middle of August but are just 3-9 in their last 12 and sit one game behind the White Sox in the standings.
Minnesota is fifth in the majors in barrel rate and seventh in hard-hit percentage but those strong analytics haven't resulted in much scoring with the Twins tied with the White Sox for 17th in the majors with 4.28 runs per game.
The White Sox are fifth in the majors in batting average (.258) but just 26th in isolated power (.132), which indicates that despite making good contact, they seldom pick up extra-base hits.
Both lineups are also without a pair of key contributors with Chicago's Tim Anderson and Luis Robert sidelined by injuries and Minnesota missing Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco.
The White Sox send veteran righty Johnny Cueto to the mound. While he has an impressive 3.15 ERA in 22 starts this season, his expected ERA of 3.99 is significantly worse and his expected batting average is in the bottom 20th percentile of all pitchers.
The Twins respond with Winder, a 25-year-old rookie with an xERA of just 5.13 and an xBA in the bottom 15th percentile.
White Sox vs Twins Over/Under analysis
The Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these divisional foes with the lone Under during that span coming last night.
The Over is also 7-3 in the Twins' last 10 home games with the total set between 7-8.5 while going 5-2 O/U in Chicago's previous seven contests with the total between 7-8.5.
The total for this game is low at 7.5 when you consider the below-average xERA of both starters and the solid hitting analytics of these lineups even without a few big bats.
That said, both clubs have really struggled at the dish lately with the White Sox ranking 26th in the majors in OPS (.621) over the last 15 days and the Twins 29th in OPS (.657) this month.
White Sox vs Twins trend to know
The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Twins
White Sox vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, September 28, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Chicago, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Johnny Cueto (7-9, 3.15 ERA): The former All-Star hasn't looked great since 2016 and despite an impressive ERA this season, his 3.90 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, and .262 OBA are average at best. His last outing came against the Guardians last Thursday when he surrendered eight hits and four runs (three earned) in six innings.
Josh Winder (4-5, 4.20 ERA): The rookie has pitched to a 5.20 FIP with a 1.25 WHIP and an OBA of .252 in 60 innings. In his previous start last Thursday, Winder scattered six hits and allowed three runs in six innings of work against the Royals.
White Sox vs Twins latest injuries
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White Sox vs Twins weather
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