If you had the Arizona Diamondbacks facing off against the Texas Rangers in the annual Fall Classic on your bingo card, futures betting card, scratched on a bar napkin, or whatever, congratulations — you may be among the only ones to have done so. This matchup truly defies the World Series odds.
Arizona swept Milwaukee in the NL Wild Card series. The Dbacks then swept the Dodgers in the NLDS series before winning the final two games in Philadelphia to become National League champions.
The Rangers swept the Rays in the AL Wild Card round in Tampa Bay. Then Texas swept Baltimore in the ALDS before avenging their AL West pennant loss to the Astros in an epic seven-game ALCS series.
This improbable World Series matchup should be a good one. Let's take a closer look at the MLB odds and analyze three prop bets to accompany our MLB playoff predictions and MLB picks.
Game 1 of the 2023 World Series gets underway tonight at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX, and our full-game preview of World Series Game 1 is available. Kenny Ducey also shares his best Corey Seager player prop predictions.
Diamondbacks vs Rangers prop picks
- Thomas Under 0.5 total bases
- Heim Under 0.5 total bases
- Gallen Over 15.5 total outs
Picks made on October 27 at 5:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Diamondbacks vs Rangers Game 1 props
Prop bet #1: Alek takes the collar
Alek Thomas has had some big hits for the Diamondbacks during the playoffs, but the rookie center fielder was a .206 hitter on the road over 199 at-bats during the regular season.
Thomas has seven hits during the Diamondbacks' unlikely playoff run, with four of those seven leaving the yard. He’s had three hits in his last four games, and two of them going yard with a pair of timely walks during Game 6 of the NLCS.
The rookie center fielder is a big swinger with a 20% chase rate and, as a result, has nine strikeouts over 33 post-season at-bats. He chases quite a few pitches out of the zone, and that’s never a good thing for Alek Thomas odds when facing a veteran with a strikeout rate like what he will see tonight in Nathan Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has been stellar during the Rangers’ playoff run. He’s 4-0 during the postseason with a 2.42 ERA. He’s allowed just two dingers and 21 hits over 26 innings pitched and has looked like the ace he was hyped to be.
During his postseason run, Eovaldi has whiffed 26 batters with only two walks, and I believe he will handle Thomas. The veteran righty has a four-pitch arsenal with an above-average chase rate, and Eovaldi will have the go-big or go-home rookie grabbing plenty of pine tonight.
Alek Thomas prop: Under 0.5 total bases (+130 at DraftKings) 25% boost available
Prop bet #2: Jonah swallowed by a snake
Next up we're targeting Jonah Heim odds. The Rangers catcher has had a strong postseason. He’s currently on a three-game hitting streak and has a dozen hits with a pair of home runs in 49 postseason at-bats.
Heim is coming off the best season of his brief MLB career. He had 118 hits over 501 plate appearances with a career-best strikeout rate, but a career-worst walk rate. Heim hasn’t come close to the same postseason production as he enjoyed during the regular season, and he’s up against a pitcher who he has some history with.
Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen was the Cy Young Award front-runner for most of the season. He was 17-9 with a sixth-best 220 strikeouts, but the postseason hasn’t been as kind to Gallen — he’s served up five home runs over two losing starts in the NLCS against Philadelphia, but got wins over the Dodgers and Brewers. I expect a bounce-back performance tonight.
Heim has faced Gallen eight times during his brief career and has gone hitless with six strikeouts. The Diamondbacks righty whiffs 8.65 lefties per nine away frames on the bump, and clearly, Gallen has found some sort of edge over the Rangers slugger.
Heim slashes just .074/.107/.185/.292 with two hits and nine strikeouts over 27 at-bats against the rest of the Arizona staff, and I believe he goes hitless tonight.
Jonah Heim prop: Under 0.5 total bases (+160 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Ten-Gallen hat
Gallen hasn’t had the best postseason, but Arizona manager Torey Lovullo seems to trust his ace starter, and I believe the Zac Gallen odds of 15.5 outs tonight are too low.
The Diamondbacks ace recorded 15.5 outs or more in 28 of his 36 regular season starts, and in three of his four postseason starts. He would need to get absolutely lit up to get an early hook, and I don’t believe the Rangers will have a big night against the Snakes' righthander.
Texas can hit the baseball. They were fourth during the regular season in runs scored at home and boasted the fourth-highest run differential in baseball this season. The Rangers scored 21 runs over their final two games at Houston and 19 runs during their four playoff matchups in 2023 at Globe Life Park.
Gallen has an 86-bat history against this current collection of Rangers sluggers, and it's a good one. The Arizona righty has yielded 22 hits, a pair of home runs, and 25 strikeouts — the current Rangers slash .256/.281/.384/.685 against the Dbacks ace.
I expect a bounce-back performance from Gallen tonight. He may have gotten roughed up a bit recently, but Gallen has a good head-to-head history against these Rangers bats with a manager who trusts him enough to leave in the game long enough for Gallen to exceed 15.5 outs.
Zac Gallen prop: Over 15.5 total outs (+110 at BetMGM)
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