Rangers vs Diamondbacks World Series Game 3 Player Prop Bets: Pfaadt's Chance

Prop bet #1: Pfaadt of the land

Tonight’s pitching matchup should be fun, as we have a legendary fireballer like Max Scherzer and a rookie with one hell of a sweeper in Brandon Pfaadt.

Backing a rookie starting pitcher making his first World Series start against bats as potent as what the Texas Rangers boast is always a dicey proposition, but I don’t have any qualms whatsoever backing this one tonight.

Pfaadt has been big for the Snakes rotation. He might be 0-0 during the postseason, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are 4-0 when he takes the hill, and the rookie has struck out 22 hitters over 16 2/3 playoff frames. 

Those are heady numbers for sure, but he’s also thrown 10 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts over his two playoff starts at Chase Field. 

Pfaadt enjoyed a decent rookie season pitching at Chase Field. He struggled a bit with his command, but he allowed a dozen earned runs with 28 strikeouts over his last five regular-season home starts, and I expect a big night for Pfaadt against Texas' lumber.

Texas has already struck out 20 times in this series. Moreover, the team struck out 22.6% of the time it faced righties on the road this season. Thus, we could see the young rookie pile up strikeouts and exceed his more than manageable prop number. 

Brandon Pfaadt prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at BetMGM) 25% boost available

Prop bet #2: Maxed out

Max Scherzer has enjoyed a career most only dream about, bull-dogging his way to 3,000+ strikeouts, 214 career wins, and a 2019 World Series title with the Washington Nationals. 

For all his Hall of Fame-worthy success conquering hitters, the one thing that he would love to change is his postseason record. Outside of that amazing 2019 run, he has experienced a whole lot of disappointment and has an 8-9 postseason record over 29 appearances.

Scherzer hasn’t pitched into the fifth inning in any of his last five postseason starts. He’s been dreadful during October — he’s struck out fewer than four hitters in four of his past five postseason starts and has coughed up seven home runs over his last 15 2/3 postseason frames.

The Diamondbacks scored the fourth-most runs against righties in the National League during the regular season. The Snakes' sticks had the third-best home strikeout rate, the fourth-highest walk rate, and — as we’ve seen — can cause all sorts of trouble for anyone with their unmatched speed on the basepaths. 

Arizona has scored 14 runs during the first two contests, and while they struck out a whopping — and uncharacteristic — 14 times in Game 1, they only punched out twice in Game 2, which was more in line with their 20% strikeout rate against righties this season.

Scherzer will again struggle to get through the fifth inning with the D-backs making consistent contact and running wild on the bases.

Max Scherzer prop: Under 14.5 outs recorded (-130 at BetMGM) 25% boost available

Prop bet #3: Slowing Seager

Diamondbacks pitching coach Brent Strom seems to have instructed his pitchers to pitch around Texas slugger Corey Seager as much as possible, and I believe that could be the case once again tonight.

Pfaadt has been tremendous, but he had a bit of trouble pitching against lefties this season. He walked 3.22 lefties per nine frames during the regular season, and while that walk rate dipped a touch at Chase Field, lefties are batting .314 against the rookie righty at home this season.

Seager is far and away the Rangers' most accomplished offensive postseason threat, and he’s someone you don’t want to face in a must-win situation. He tied Game 1 in the bottom of the ninth with a two-run blast, and there is no chance in the world that Diamondbacks manager Torrey Lovullo will allow that to happen tonight if faced with a similar decision.

The Rangers slugger walked 14 times in 68 plate appearances during the postseason (20.6% walk rate) and twice during a closely-contested Game 1. Although Game 2 was a washout for Rangers bats, Arizona continued to pitch around him, and I see that trend continuing tonight.  

Finally, Game 3 could be another tight contest. Pfaadt will try and avoid Seager like the plague and pitch around him as often as possible. Seager was issued the fourth-most intentional walks in MLB this season with an 11.2% walk rate on the road against right-handed pitching. 

Corey Seager prop: Over 0.5 walks (+125 at DraftKings) 25% boost available