The Houston Astros could book themselves a ticket to the World Series with a win tonight at historic Yankee Stadium. The 'Stros lead three games to one in their ALCS series with the Yankees.
Houston will send Justin Verlander to the mound for Game 5 while the Yankees will respond with James Paxton. From the first pitch to the final out we break down the odds and give you our best bets for this MLB postseason battle. **video
HOUSTON ASTROS AT NEW YORK YANKEES (+120, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
This is a rematch of the starting pitchers from Game 2, except this showdown will be at Yankee Stadium. Game 2 was classic October baseball, ending with a dramatic 3-2 Astros win in the 11th inning.
Both pitchers got off to flawless starts in that game, going three and out in the top and bottom of the first inning. We're backing another good start from Verlander and Paxton tonight.
PICK: First Inning Hits - Under 2 (-115)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
This bet is based on one man alone: Justin Verlander. Paxton had a strong regular season for the Yankees, going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. But Verlander was on a whole other level, going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. And unlike certain star pitchers (cough *Kershaw* cough), Verlander pitches very well in the postseason.
Since 2012, Verlander is 11-5 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in 20 playoff appearances. We're taking the Astros on the first five innings runline.
PICK: First Five Innings Runline Houston -0.5 (+100)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
While there have been some timely hits in this series, there hasn't been many of them. The teams combined for 16 hits in Game 1, but since then there has been a total of just 13 (in 11 innings), 12, and 13 hits over the last three contests.
In 240 1-3 innings pitched in both the regular season and postseason, Verlander has allowed just 150 hits. Bet on these sides going Under their total hits in this tense Game 5 matchup.
PICK: Total Hits Under 15.5 (-115)
FULL GAME TOTAL
If we haven't talked about Verlander enough already we're going to mention him again: the guy is pretty damn good. But it's not just about the starting pitchers in this game, the Yankees and Astros also have two of the better bullpens in the majors.
This game will have plenty of playoff intensity and if Paxton starts to look shaky, as he did early in Game 2, the Yankees won't hesitate to take him out and give their relievers significant work. Paxton has been much better at home this year, pitching to a 3.35 ERA with a BAA of .211 in 15 regular season games at Yankee Stadium. Even with a strong breeze blowing towards right field, we like the Under.
PICK: Under 7.5 (+100)
FULL GAME SIDE
New York might have home-field advantage but Verlander has been an absolute monster on the road this year, going 11-2 with a 0.76 WHIP and a batting average allowed of .164. Both teams have excellent hitters throughout their lineups and have terrific bullpens, so in other catagories they look fairly even.
That said, Verlander's recent success against the Bronx Bombers is impossible to ignore. Houston is 6-1 in Verlander's seven career starts against the Yankees as an Astro. And in that lone Houston loss, Verlander pitched eight innings of shutout ball. We're going with the future Hall of Famer and backing the road team.
PICK: Houston -140
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