It's getaway day for many teams and we've got a full slate of pitchers to dig into.
I'm sticking with the Detroit Tigers and strikeouts, fading a pitcher who should see some regression, and betting on Jack Kochanowicz's short leash.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, April 23.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 23
Olson 5+ strikeouts (+135 at bet365)
Sugano Over 2.5 earned runs (+100 at BetMGM)
Kochanowicz Under 16.5 outs (-105 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Padres vs. Tigers
The angle: The books are still pricing the Padres as a low K% but their current lineup is very different
The move: Reese Olson Over 5+ strikeouts (+135 at bet365)
The San Diego Padres struck out 12 times last night as the Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Ks was an easy cash. I'm going back to the well today with Reese Olson, who has topped this number in three of his four starts.
The biggest angle here is the Padres' pricing. They rank 30th in K% but are without two of their lowest K% hitters, Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill. This lineup has a lot of swing-and-miss and the afternoon setting combined with a getaway game for the Friars makes it even better.
Orioles vs. Nationals
The angle: Tomoyuki Sugano has had an easy schedule and his BABIP is showing something more is coming
The move: Tomoyuki Sugano Over 2.5 earned runs (+100 at BetMGM)
Tomoyuki Sugano has faced some bad offenses over his first four MLB starts. The Baltimore Orioles starter has seen the Blue Jays twice and the Royals and Guardians once apiece. He does not miss bats as he has just eight strikeouts over 21 innings and his .261 BABIP is a little low for a pitcher who is constantly giving up contact.
James Wood has been crushing the ball for the Washington Nationals and can do some damage, which is partially why all Sugano's Over hits and earned runs are projecting so well today in decent April hitting conditions. THE BAT is projecting 3.13 earned runs on 88 pitches and 6.14 hits allowed.
Don't let Sugano's 3.42 ERA fool you. His xERA is 6.42 and his 5.6 FIP is a very good indicator that tougher times are coming.
Pirates vs. Angels
The angle: Jack Kochanowicz is not a good pitcher and that's why he doesn't throw the ball more than 80 times
The move: Jack Kochanowicz Under 16.5 outs (-105 at bet365)
Jack Kochanowicz has not gone more than 15 outs in three straight starts. He has failed to get 15 outs in back-to-back starts, allowing 10 earned runs on 15 hits and four walks.
The tall drink of water has to be wildly efficient if he wants to get deep as his pitch counts from the start of the season have been 64, 79, 86, and 72. THE BAT is projecting 84 pitches and 16 outs tonight vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Los Angeles Angels right-hander is also not missing bats, with just two punchouts over his last 9+ innings (two starts). He is getting hit and hit hard. The only way this goes Over is if Pittsburgh just starts hacking early in the count and gets bad BABIP luck.
He could be at 75 pitches and not come out for the sixth or he could shelled and hit the showers early. There are plenty of paths for this Under.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
