The New York Yankees and Houston Astros wrap up their three-game set at Minute Maid Park on Sunday.
After two entertaining games, including a dominant complete game performance from Gerrit Cole on Saturday, Jameson Taillon and Framber Valdez will head to the mound for the series finale and last game before the All-Star break. Can Taillon help New York secure the sweep?
Find out with our best free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros on July 11.
Yankees vs Astros game info
• Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
• Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021
• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• TV: WPIX, ATT SportsNet-SW
Yankees vs Astros odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonHouston landed on DraftKings' odds board as -143 chalk Saturday night and is down a few cents to -136 at 11:45 a.m. ET today. It's two-way moneyline action, with 56 percent of bets on the Astros, while dollars are running dead even. The total is stable at 8.5 (Over -120), with 65 percent of bets/94 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameYankees vs Astros betting preview
Starting pitchers
Jameson Taillon (4-4, 5.05 ERA): This season hasn’t been a great one for Taillon, but the righty is coming off an excellent performance against the Seattle Mariners on July 6. In that start, Taillon struck out nine and allowed only one earned run over seven innings of work. It was also a road start, which is encouraging when factoring in that he had been struggling away from home all season.
Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86 ERA): Valdez has been excellent for Houston this season, but he's coming off his worst start of the year. On July 6, the lefty gave up five earned runs on 10 hits in just five innings of work against the Oakland Athletics. One thing that’s worth keeping in mind is that Valdez hasn’t allowed a homer in each of his last two starts. If he can keep that up, it’ll be hard for the Yankees to score runs. They’re a team that relies on power.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Luke Voit 1B (Questionable), Miguel Andujar 3B (Questionable), Darren O’Day RP (Out), Zack Britton RP (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Out).
Astros: Carlos Correa SS (Out), Alex Bregman 3B (Out), Pedro Baez RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 6-2 in their last eight games against left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
Moneyline pick
Cole turned in one of the most impressive performances of the year last night, as the righty pitched a shutout and finished it off with 12 strikeouts. Now, the Yankees will be looking to completely demoralize the Astros by sweeping them in Houston, and they have to be pretty confident that they’ll get the job done here.
On the mound for the Astros in this game is Valdez, who has been really sturdy as a member of this Houston rotation. However, he's a lefty and that means that the Yankees will be trouble for him. Only three teams in the entire league have hit more homers against left-handed pitching than New York this season.
Aaron Judge is batting .330 with eight homers and 18 RBIs against lefties, making him one of the many members of this New York team that could deliver in this game. You’ll also want to keep an eye on Gary Sanchez, who is 2-for-2 with a homer against Valdez. Overall, Houston’s lefty doesn’t allow homers very often, but there are theories that he could be a pitcher who struggles as a result of the foreign substance ban. Perhaps he’ll start giving up some more bombs in the future, and it’s entirely possible that’ll begin against a team with some serious power.
As for Taillon, it’s important that the righty doesn’t make any massive mistakes in this game. He gave up three homers in an 11-5 win over the Los Angeles Angels on June 29, but he responded with that stellar performance against the Mariners in his last start. Taillon looked like the guy the Yankees thought they were acquiring in the offseason in that outing, and he’ll be looking to build on it here.
PREDICTION: New York (+124)
Over/Under pick
The Yankees have the type of lineup that can absolutely crush lefties, and that’s why the team has been so productive against southpaws recently.
Now, a New York team that has played some great baseball over the last week or so gets to face Valdez, who looked extremely beatable in his last trip to the mound. With that, the Yankees should be able to put up a decent amount of runs, especially after scoring just one in last night’s 1-0 victory.
Taillon might be coming off a great start for New York, but he hasn’t exactly been dominant this year. Houston will likely be able to plate a few and help this Over cash.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Astros betting card
- New York (+124)
- Over 8.5 (-120)
Picks made on 7/10/2021 at 11:07 p.m. ET
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