The Houston Astros will look to take a commanding two-game lead in the ALCS as they take on Luis Severino and the New York Yankees.
The Astros used three home runs to power the offense in last night’s 4-2 win, but it was how the Yankees pitched to Yordan Alvarez which has me looking for the best value on the board.
Find out where my best bet lies in my free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Astros. Also, don't forget to dive deeper with EV Analytics' Yankees vs. Astros insights.
Yankees vs Astros best odds
Yankees vs Astros picks and predictions
It seems the Yankees are not going to let Yordan Alvarez beat them. The slugging left-handed hitter saw one single ball in the strike zone over his first three at-bats, which included two walks — one of which was intentional. Even in his fourth AB, a strikeout, he saw just one ball that would have been a called strike in six pitches.
Jeremy Pena is in the two-hole and batting .350 in the postseason and has gone deep in back-to-back games. He has three doubles in the playoffs and one of those was the reason Alvarez was walked intentionally in Game 1.
With a right-handed starter in Severino, the Yanks could elect to walk Alvarez if first base is open in order to secure a better matchup against the right-handed hitting Alex Bregman.
With so few pitches to hit — and quality pitches being few and far between — it will be tough for Alvarez to rack up bases.
His total bases market is -140 to the Under 1.5 but with his power, if he does get a pitch, it will likely go for extra bases so I’m happy with hitting Under 0.5 hits at +195.
Of 15 pitches faced last night, Alvarez saw only two that would have been confidently called a strike.
My best bet: Yordan Alvarez Under 0.5 hits (+195)
Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) Harrison Bader and Gleyber Torres each Over 1.5 total bases BOOSTED to +400 at Caesars! Bet Now
B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.
Yankees vs Astros ALCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 New York Yankees |
+285 |
 Houston Astros |
-340 |
Yankees vs Astros moneyline analysis
The Astros sit as roughly as -150 favorite one night after closing at -185 yesterday. The 35-point swing is related to the talent difference in Game 1’s pitching matchup whereas tonight’s starters are valued evenly.
The Yankees might have Aaron Judge (4-for-24 in the postseason) and Giancarlo Stanton (4-for-20), but the Astros have the edge on offense without a doubt. The bottom of the New York lineup is an easy place to pitch to as the five-through-nine hitters went a combined 2-for-23 last night. That’s in sharp contrast to the Astros, who have two batters in their bottom four who are hitting at least .368 in the postseason — Yuli Gurriel and Chas McCormick, both of whom went deep last night.
Starting pitching is a wash when looking at edges as both Severino and Framber Valdez are solid postseason veterans with impressive numbers. The one thing with these pitchers is that Aaron Boone let Severino go over 100 pitches in his last start, which was a struggle in the early innings. Dusty Baker has no issues going to the pen if Valdez struggles with command and if this game settles in the later innings, the edge goes to the Houston bullpen.
Houston finished with the best team ERA in the AL this season and that included the league’s best bullpen ERA at 2.80. This is a much deeper stable of relievers than the Yankees are using as New York even had to go to starter Frankie Montas late last game.
Their middle relievers might be the best in baseball and the Yankees won’t likely see Valdez a third time unless the Houston lefty is dealing, which is possible too.
Taking the visitors at +130 isn’t interesting me at all today considering the advantages Houston has at home, in the bullpen, and in the lineup.
Yankees vs Astros Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 7 and leaning to the Under, but some love for the Over has moved it to -110 aside. Yesterday’s game closed at 7 after opening at 6.5, which shows there is some consistent love for this Over with people able to move the line.
The Houston bullpen is my biggest worry with this Over 7. It’s just so deep that there aren’t any weak spots in it. Valdez is a better pitcher to isolate for a F5 Over as his walk issues can get him in trouble. His groundball rate is epic, but New York could plate some early runs if he does struggle with command.
Severino can also get into trouble with walks as he posted 30 free passes over his 100-plus innings this season. THE BAT has both pitchers projected for 4.01 earned runs with Severino allowing more.
The F5 bet also gives us likely three plate appearances at the top of both orders which is huge when you consider how weak the Yankees are at bottom of their lineup.
We saw no issues with home runs yesterday as five left the yard. With both starters having issues with delivering free passes on occasion, we could see some traffic with those long balls.
I’m off the full game Over 7 but will get down on the F5 Over 3.5 (-110).
Yankees vs Astros trend to know
The Yankees are 0-5 SU in Severino’s last five road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Astros.
Yankees vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, October 20, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
TBS, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (7-3, 3.18 ERA): Severino threw 5 2-3 innings vs. the Guardians in his other 2022 postseason start. He had six strikeouts in that game with zero walks but also allowed eight hits but limited damage to just three runs. Severino threw 106 pitches in that start so he has the trust of Aaron Boone. He’s made nine career postseason starts, including three vs. the Astros where he’s allowed six runs over 13 innings with a 9/9 K/BB.
Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA): The Astros are 10-2 SU over Valdez’s last 12 starts. He took a no-decision vs. the Mariners in his only postseason go this year, recording 17 outs with four hits and three walks. Over his 49 postseason innings, he has a 4.38 ERA with a 48/21 K/BB. He can have command issues at times but he keeps the ball in the park and has given up a homer in just three of his last 16 starts.
Yankees vs Astros latest injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Yankees vs Astros weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
