The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays will wrap up a three-game series in Toronto this afternoon. The Yanks will look to complete the clean sweep.
What can you say about New York? They've made a laugh of the AL East race, building up a 12-game lead after winning nine of 10, including yesterday's win against the Blue Jays with the impressive Alek Manoah on the mound. They took advantage of one bad inning and won 4-0.
Read our MLB picks and predictions for Blue Jays vs. Yankees to see which side we'll be backing tonight.
Yankees vs Blue Jays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
New York opened up around a -120 favorite and got pounded immediately. In some books, they've gone as high as -160, with the Jays returning around +145. Often, you'll see some sharp action on an opponent in this situation. After all, the Yankees have to cool at some point, and a divisional opponent aiming to avoid a sweep is as good as any team to bet. But, it's worth noting that doesn't appear to be the case here.
The total opened at 9 and has stayed there with a bit of money coming in on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Blue Jays predictions
- Prediction: Blue Jays F5 ML (+145)
- Prediction: Under 9 (-110)
- Best bet: SGP, Kiner-Falefa to record a hit + Severino Over 5.5 Ks (+105)
Picks made on 6/19/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Sunday, June 19, 2022
• First pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
• TV: YES Network, Sportsnet
Yankees vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (4-1, 2.80 ERA): Returning from a season-ending injury last year, Severino has been relatively dominant to start the season. He gave up just one earned run in June after back-to-back impressive starts against the Cubs and the Tigers. Severino does his best work against teams that swing and miss at a decent clip. He's posted one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball thus far. You'd wonder if Severino is due for negative regression, but according to his expected ERA, he's been unlucky (2.55 xERA).
Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 4.80 ERA): Kikuchi has been a favorite fade of mine. He has failed to make it past four innings in three consecutive starts and was hit pretty hard by Baltimore his last time out. He gave up four earned runs and two home runs in just four innings of work. Honestly, it's hard to imagine things getting much better for Kikuchi, either. His barrel rate is one of the worst in the league, making that especially problematic in a division filled with long-ball hitters. His hard-hit rate follows as only slightly better. His expected ERA is over six, which marks one of the most significant differentials between expected and actual ERA for any pitcher in baseball. Simply put, the outlook is not good.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Danny Jansen C (Out).
Blue Jays: DJ LeMahieu 2B (Questionable), Giancarlo Stanton DH (Questionable), Aroldis Chapman RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in New York's last six games vs. left-handed starters.. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Yankees vs Blue Jays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
After the negative view of Kikuchi at the onset, I couldn't possibly side with him here, could I? Well, you're in for a surprise. I don't feel good about it, but I am.
With an OPS of .873 in June, the Yankees are hitting as well as any team in modern baseball history. There's a situational path here for Toronto, though. Because of that, I'm rolling with the Jays.
Kikuchi has managed to make his best starts of the season against the Yankees, which is surprising given his anemic barrel rate, but that's the story here. Severino has had some uneven results against Toronto, but that's not the angle. For now, let's explore why Kikuchi has had success against New York.
Perhaps this comes down to New York's struggles against left-handed pitching. I believe they are the best team in baseball, but if they fall short of taking home the crown, it'll be because left-handed pitching spelled their demise. Their batting average falls dramatically against left-handed starters, but more importantly, it's where their heavy bats struggle.
Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, and others all have below-average slugging percentages against left-handed pitching this season. Giancarlo Stanton has had great success against them, but he's been amid a pretty significant slump and may not even play today.
Kikuchi has made three starts against the Yankees this season and, collectively, has a 2.84 ERA in those starts. That's well and above his best mark against any team, he's seen multiple times this season. The Blue Jays are 3-8 against the Yankees this season, and he's been part of one of those wins.
It's entirely possible that New York could come out and do what they do, but the value just isn't there.
If another pitcher were on the mound for the Jays, I'd probably have more conviction in backing them. I love the contrarian aspect of playing a competitive team looking to avoid a sweep at home to a divisional foe.
Even if I'm pretty down on Kikuchi, I can't ignore the Yankees' struggles against left-handed pitchers and his success.
I also can't ignore my projections that give the Jays a 48% chance of leading after the first five innings. That's a significant value at this number and one I have to grab.
Prediction: Blue Jays first five moneyline (+145 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
This is another side where the angle of the Yankees' struggles against left-handed pitching stands out. The Under is 5-1 in the Yankees' last six games vs. a left-handed starter.
We've talked enough about Kikuchi against the Yankees; let's talk about Severino against the Jays. He's seen them twice this season: in one start, he was excellent, but in the other, not so much. So let's focus on his rough start and explain why it's unlikely to happen again.
The second time around against Toronto, Severino went four innings and gave up three earned runs on four hits. It wasn't exactly a disaster, but by his standards set this season, it was a pretty rocky outing.
However, he was reasonably unlucky. Two earned runs came in the second inning on a double by Santiago Espinal. That is still the only RBI he's recorded against the Yankees in 11 appearances this season.
I would rarely point to a single play and talk about it to this degree, but it feels worth mentioning. It was a random deflected ball and without it, we'd have two dominant performances from Severino against the Jays and two totals that have gone Under. We also may have a lower total today, but we'll use it to our advantage.
What's more likely this go-around is Severino going around five to six innings, using his exceptional strikeout clip to get outs against the swing-heavy Jays. If he does that, I think this total safely stays Under.
The Yankees have a well-rested bullpen, and the Jays aren't in bad shape there either. My projections also have this staying Under around 60% of the time.
Prediction: Under 9 (-110 at FanDuel)
Best bet
For our best bet, we'll take the two handicapping angles we've discussed above and get a little creative. We're talking about a player to record a hit that does well against left-handed pitching and Severino to do what he does on the mound.
The Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching, but there are a few exceptions. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has flourished against them and is also swinging a hot bat right now. He has a career .250 average against Kikuchi but has at least one hit against the Jays in each game he's started this season.
As a whole, against left-handed starters, Kiner-Falefa is hitting over .300, which is good for the second-best mark on the Yankees roster. It's a bit anecdotal, but I feel he'll be a little more locked into today given the situational aspect of going for a sweep against a divisional foe.
The Severino aspect of this is simple. He's easily eclipsed this number in both his starts against the Jays this season and in seven of his 11 starts this season. The Blue Jays swing and miss a pretty good amount, given their aggressive nature at the plate.
You'd have to expect they'll be even more aggressive today, desperately looking for the win. I'll take advantage of that.
Pick: SGP, Isiah Kiner-Falefa to record a hit + Luis Severino Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at FanDuel)
