The New York Yankees head to American Family Field on Friday to open a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Both teams still have plenty to play for, as the Yankees try to put away the AL East crown, while the Brewers find themselves in the middle of the NL Wild Card race.
We’ll break down this critical matchup in our MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Brewers on September 16.
Yankees vs Brewers best odds
Yankees vs Brewers picks and predictions
The Yankees have won four in a row, and look like they’ve finally broken out of their second-half slump that nearly threatened their seemingly inevitable division title.
Aaron Judge has been the big story, as he continues to close in on the AL home run record in a likely MVP season. But up and down the lineup, the Yankees possess one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, ranking fifth in the majors in OPS (.745) and second in runs per game (4.96).
New York faces a very hittable pitcher on Friday in Adrian Houser. The 29-year-old righty has only struck out 65 batters in 91.2 innings while allowing a WHIP of 1.418. The Yankees should be able to score runs against Houser, who has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last eight starts.
Milwaukee can crush the ball too, though they find much more success against righties. The Brewers have put up a .751 OPS against right-handed pitching, compared to a pedestrian .663 against lefties. That means the Brewers will be happy to see Frankie Montas on the mound tonight. Montas moved from Oakland to the Bronx at the trade deadline but has severely underperformed for the Yankees.
In seven starts with the team, Montas has pitched to a 5.94 ERA, failing to provide the middle of the rotation help New York was looking for. That’s exactly the kind of matchup the Brewers need as they look to remain in the Wild Card race. Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong, and Christian Yelich are among several Milwaukee hitters who have massive platoon splits, with all of them hitting far better against righties.
With both teams likely to put up runs tonight, I’ll be targeting the Over in this game. While the total opened at 8.5, it quickly fell to eight runs and has remained stable ever since. That’s a number I’m more than comfortable taking on Friday, as I’m happy to back two powerful lineups facing off against underperforming pitchers.
My best bet: Over 8 (-103 at Unibet)
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Yankees vs Brewers betting preview
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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Moneyline analysis
The Yankees have won four straight and eight of their last 10, which has helped them rebuild a 6.5-game lead in the AL East. Despite their second-half slowdown, New York is still second in the majors with a +209 run differential and has the second-best record in the American League at 87-56.
Milwaukee has won five of its last seven, doing just enough to remain in the NL Wild Card race. The Brewers sit two games back of the San Diego Padres for the final postseason position in the National League. While both of Friday’s starting pitchers have struggled this season, Houser has shown some positive signs as of late. In his past two starts, he has given up just two earned runs (and four runs in total) over 11 total innings of work, picking up the win each time.
Montas, on the other hand, has given up at least four earned runs in four of his seven starts for the Yankees, and has never gone more than six innings since joining New York. Milwaukee always mashes against right-handed starters, and Montas should be no exception. The Brewers translate that hitting into wins, with Milwaukee going 13-3 in its last 16 home games against righties.
Over/Under analysis
There is little reason to believe that either pitcher will be able to contain the opposing lineup tonight. The Yankees can score against any pitcher in the league and have broken out of any perceived slump in the past two weeks. New York is averaging 4.75 runs over its last 12 games and scored at least five runs in each of its last four contests.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee turns into an absolute juggernaut when it gets to feast on righthanded pitching. The Brewers are averaging 4.81 runs per game when facing a righty starter. Like the Yankees, the Milwaukee bats have also been turning it on as of late, scoring five or more runs in three of the last four outings.
The matchup looks even better for the Brewers given Montas’ recent struggles. Since joining the Yankees, Montas has watched his WHIP balloon to 1.46. He has also seen his strikeout rate from 9.4 per nine innings down to 7.7, all while allowing more hits, home runs, and walks. Whether this is a temporary slump or the struggles of dealing with the pressure of playing with the Yankees, Montas is not in good form right now.
Houser has looked better for Milwaukee as of late, but that success has come against weaker opposition. In his last four games against top-tier teams — the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies — Houser has pitched to a 9.00 ERA over 19 innings.
Yankees vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, September 16, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Wisconsin
Starting pitchers
Frankie Montas (5-12, 3.89 ERA): Montas built himself into a reliable starter for the Oakland Athletics over the past four seasons, and looked to be off to a similar start this year. He was 4-9 with a 3.18 ERA and solid peripherals when the A’s traded him and reliever Lou Trivino to the Yankees at the deadline. However, Montas has disappointed for New York, winning just one game in seven starts while pitching to a 5.94 ERA. After a promising start earlier this month against the Tampa Bay Rays, Montas turned around and allowed four runs on nine hits over 5.2 innings against the same Rays lineup in his last start on September 9.
Adrian Houser (6-9, 4.61 ERA): A heavy groundball pitcher, Houser relies on his sinker in an effort to get outs. That approach has provided mixed results throughout his career, including this season. Houser is giving up lots of hits and walks but does a fair job of keeping the ball in the park, as he has allowed only 0.8 home runs per nine innings. Houser last saw the mound on September 10 against the Cincinnati Reds. He gave up just one run on one hit over six innings — without striking out a single batter — to pick up his second consecutive win.
Key injuries
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-2 in the Yankees’ last eight games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers
