The third and final game of this Interleague series gets underway Sunday with the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals hosting the AL East’s New York Yankees.
These two clubs split Saturday’s doubleheader after Friday’s game was postponed due to inclement weather.
Will the Cardinals defend their home diamond, or can the Yankees secure the victory on the road? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Cardinals on Sunday, July 2.
Yankees vs Cardinals odds
Yankees vs Cardinals predictions
Cardinals left-hander Jordan Montgomery is slated to take the mound and he should be a good candidate to fade. Through 16 starts this season, Montgomery is 5-7 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 51st percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Specifically, we are going to fade Montgomery in the strikeout department.
Entering Sunday, he ranks in the 40th percentile or lower in both K% and Whiff%. Currently, you can find his strikeout prop as high as 4.5 at FanDuel.
While the Yankees have generally struggled at the plate this year, they are good at one thing: limiting strikeouts. New York specifically makes consistent contact against southpaws, ranking in the top half of the league in K% vs. lefty hurlers.
Looking at Sunday’s projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this year. This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against old friend Montgomery.
My best bet: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (-104 at FanDuel)
Yankees vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Under 8.5 runs (-155)
Yankees moneyline (-115)
We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let us look at the other two.
On the other side, right-hander Gerrit Cole takes the mound for New York. One of the front-runners for the AL Cy Young award, Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.
We should expect the same-old stuff from Cole and see the Cardinals’ bats limited, but what about New York’s? While we are fading Montgomery in the strikeout department, I once again point you to the best bet section where I alluded to the Yankees’ struggle at the dish this season.
Currently, New York ranks in the Bottom 8 of the league in hits per game, batting average, and OPS. With the significant pitching advantage, I see the Yankees winning in a low-scoring affair.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Yankees vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened to a pick ‘em before some steam brought up New York to the –120 range. That movement makes sense, given that Cole is a much stronger pitcher than Montgomery.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 8 and has since been bumped up to 8.5. The tick-up is not surprising with the Cardinals’ strong lineup even against an ace like Cole. And despite the Yankees’ below-average performance at the plate this year, they should not be overlooked either thanks to a long list of hitters who have historically shown an ability to do damage.
However, in a game with Cole on the mound and Montgomery going against an inconsistent New York lineup, I still like the Under as long as you grab it at 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Cardinals are 1-6 in Mongtomery’s last seven starts against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cardinals
Yankees vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Sunday, July 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Midwest |
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (8-1, 2.78 ERA): It has been another tremendous campaign for the right-hander, who currently holds the third-shortest odds in the AL Cy Young race. This strong season is likely to continue against St. Louis, a team he is 8-4 against in his career with a commanding 2.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Jordan Montgomery (5-7, 3.52 ERA): There is not much to love about Montgomery. His surface-level stats are middling and his underlying metrics are not any better as he ranks in the 51st percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, and Whiff%. The good news for him is that the Yankees are not a threatening lineup, especially without Aaron Judge.
