The New York Yankees have a 2-0 series lead against the Cleveland Guardians as the ALCS shifts to Ohio for an important Game 3 on Thursday night.
With the Guardians having their backs against the wall and playing at home, I'm expecting a big performance from their best players, which has me backing starter Matthew Boyd and All-Star slugger Jose Ramirez with my MLB picks.
Here are my best free Yankees vs. Guardians predictions for ALCS Game 3 player props on October 17.
Yankees vs Guardians ALCS Game 3 props
- Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts (+125 at Sports Interaction)
- Ramirez Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-105 at DraftKings)
- Stanton Under 1.5 total bases (-165 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-17 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Yankees vs Guardians props
Prop bet #1: Matthew Boyd Over 3.5 strikeouts
Matthew Boyd began the year on the IL as he recovered from elbow surgery but he has been dealing since returning to Cleveland's rotation in August. In eight regular season starts, he pitched to a 2.72 ERA with 46 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings. Boyd didn't throw enough pitches to qualify for the Statcast leaderboard but if he had, his strikeout rate (27.7%) and whiff rate (29.7%) would have tied for 13th in the majors.
That strong play has continued into the postseason where he hasn't allowed a single run while striking out 10 batters in 6 2/3 innings across two starts. The New York Yankees led the majors in slugging percentage (.445) against right-handed pitchers during the regular season but that number plummeted to .387 against southpaws like Boyd.
Considering that Boyd had struck out 4+ batters in nine of 10 starts this year, he should be able to eclipse this low total as long as he doesn't get pulled early. This is a five-star play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 4.7 strikeouts for the Cleveland southpaw.
Prop bet #2: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Jose Ramirez put together another All-Star season for the Cleveland Guardians in 2024, slashing .279/.335/.537 while ranking third in the majors with 118 RBIs and seventh with 114 runs. He performed even better at home, where he had a .301 BA with a .576 slugging percentage, and he's poised for a big game at home today.
The Yankees are sending Clarke Schmidt to the mound and while he had a 2.85 ERA in 16 starts this year, his expected ERA was significantly higher at 3.75. He also hasn't looked that sharp since coming off the IL in September, pitching to a 4.38 ERA over his last five starts.
Ramirez has gone 4-for-9 against Schmidt in his career, and I'm betting on that success to continue tonight.
Prop bet #3: Giancarlo Stanton Under 1.5 total bases
Giancarlo Stanton is a five-time All-Star but it's clear that his best days are behind him. After a brutal campaign in 2023 where he hit .191 with a .420 slugging percentage, the 34-year-old saw slight improvements this season, batting .233 and slugging .475. However, he had poor reverse splits, slugging .405 against lefties and slugging just .385 on the road.
Stanton has an impressive slugging percentage of .525 in his career, but that number has dipped to .448 in 17 games at Progressive Field. He has also gone 0-for-3 in his career against Boyd, and things won't get any easier for Stanton in the later innings with Cleveland owning the best bullpen in the business.
That has me fading the Yankees designated hitter on his total bases prop here.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
