It could all come down to this game for the New York Yankees.
After a 99-win regular season, Aaron Boone’s squad is now down 2-1 in the ALDS after a miraculous come-from-behind win by the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3.
Lose Game 4 and it’s all over for a team that early in the regular season looked like a dominant force.
Will the Yankees get sent home early this year or can they extend their season? Read our MLB betting picks and predictions below to find out and also check our Yankees vs. Guardians analytics piece.
Yankees vs Guardians best odds
Yankees vs Guardians picks and predictions
The Yankees are on the brink of elimination in Game 4. Lose and go home — it’s that simple! Hoping to stave off the onset of an early offseason, Aaron Boone will turn to ace Gerrit Cole in Game 4.
It will be a rematch of the same starting pitchers we saw in Game 1 when the Yankees grabbed a 4-1 win behind a strong outing from Cole. He tossed 6 1-3 innings, allowing only one earned run on four hits while striking out eight batters.
Cole’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5 on DraftKings with -155 odds to the Over. We’re attacking that Over as our best bet in this game for a starting pitcher who had a 32.4% strikeout rate in the regular season.
Why is this prop so low? The Guardians pride themselves on putting the ball in play, ranking dead last in the MLB with a 17.9% strikeout rate. Still, Cole is likely to see a heavy workload in Game 4 as the Yankees are dealing with injury concerns and overall ineffectiveness in the bullpen.
He’s the team’s ace and they need him in the worst way on Sunday, so we can forecast him to pitch deep into the game barring an utter disaster.
Cole navigated his way to eight strikeouts in Game 1 and strike out six Guardians when these teams met in the regular season.
My best bet: Gerrit Cole Over 5.5 strikeouts (-155)
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Yankees vs Guardians ALDS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 New York Yankees |
+160 |
 Cleveland Guardians |
-190 |
Yankees vs Guardians moneyline analysis
The Yankees have the starting pitching advantage in this matchup, and it’ll be hard to find anyone who will dispute that claim. Cole had a 13-8 record in the regular season with a 3.31 xERA and 3.47 FIP.
Cal Quantrill pitches to contact, which is a scary proposition against a Yankees lineup that mashes the ball into the next galaxy if the ball is left over the plate too much. He has just a 16.6% strikeout rate, which won’t get the job done considering his 5.7% barrel rate allowed.
The Yankees got to him with two home runs in Game 1, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Quantrill given a quick hook if he allows more hard contact on Sunday.
The Yankees are listed as -165 favorites at DraftKings, and they are the warranted favorite. They hold significant starting pitching and lineup advantages, but the one concern is a leaky bullpen that has already dampened their playoff outlook this season.
A Guardians win would be an upset for a reason — they’ve used more rookies (17) this season than any other ballclub. Win and it would be their first trip to the ALCS since 2016.
Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under analysis
The total for this matchup is ranges from book to book, with both 6.5 and 7 available depending on where you shop. If looking to play an Over, the best price available is 6.5 (-120) at WynnBet. If going the Under is a path you’d like to take, Under 7 (-124) at Unibet is the best line at current.
The Yankees are trending to the Under, going below the total in 10 of their last 11 when their opponent scores five or more runs in the prior game. They are 4-1 to the Under in their last five games overall.
Cole is a dominant pitcher, but his home ERA (3.20) has been better than his road ERA (3.81) this season.
The Guardians are 4-1 to the Under in their last five overall and 4-1 to the Under in their last five games against right-handed starters. In the last five meetings between these two teams, the Under has cashed four times.
If Quantrill struggles, expect Cleveland to go to the bullpen early. They have a minuscule 0.42 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in relief this postseason, a continuation of their success in the regular season when they ranked fifth in ERA (3.05) and third in WHIP (1.11).
Yankees vs Guardians trend to know
The Yankees are 8-3 in their last 11 games in Cleveland. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians
Yankees vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, October 16, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (1-0, 1.42 ERA): Cole was the winning pitcher in Game 1, allowing one run on four hits across 6 1-3 innings. He struck out eight Guardians in that game as a continuation of the success that he found this year. In the regular season, he had a 3.50 ERA across 200 innings while notching a 13-8 record.
Cal Quantrill (0-1, 5.40 ERA): Quantrill was on the other end of that Game 1 against Cole, tossing five innings and allowing four earned runs to take the loss. He allowed two home runs in that contest, a solo shot in the third and a two-run blast in the sixth that led to his ousting.
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
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Yankees vs Guardians weather
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