The New York Yankees will try to avoid the two-game Subway Series sweep when they take on the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday night.
The Mets were able to get to Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery and chase him early in a 6-3 victory on Tuesday. Will it be more of the same in this spot?
Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mets on Wednesday, July 27.
Yankees vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as consensus favorites of -167, but that apparently wasn’t enough to sway bettors toward the Yankees, as the Mets have been moved to the -180 range at the majority of sportsbooks. The total opened at 7.5, but some books have brought it down to 7.0 with action coming in on the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 7/27/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Wednesday, July 27, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Yankees vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Domingo German (0-1, 15.00 ERA): German did not look like a former 18-game winner in his season debut against the Astros last Thursday. He was touched up to the tune of five earned runs against over three innings in that start. German is 1-1 with a 4.60 ERA in three lifetime appearances (15 2-3 innings) against the Mets.
Max Scherzer (6-2, 2.28 ERA): Scherzer took his second loss of the season when last seen, despite recording his ninth quality start over 12 chances. The three-time former Cy Young winner owns a 1.78 ERA through four starts in July with a 39-2 strikeout/walk ratio.
Weather
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Key injuries
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Betting trend to know
The Yankees are 2-7 in their last nine games against starters with a WHIP below 1.15. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mets
Yankees vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Yankees are hanging at what might be the biggest price you’ll see on them for months, but oddsmakers could set it higher and the Mets would still be the proper side in this tilt.
Max Scherzer has shown he still has plenty in the tank at age 37, returning from a mid-season injury to post a 1.78 ERA through four starts in July. He’s struck out 98 batters through 75 innings this season while walking only 13.
Scherzer has been around the block, so he has plenty of experience against the Yankees’ roster despite this being an interleague matchup. For the most part, he’s handled their batters with aplomb. Josh Donaldson, Aaron Hicks, and Gleyber Torres are a combined 2-for-32 (.063) against Mad Max with 11 strikeouts.
Domingo German, Scherzer’s opposite number here, doesn’t project to be in control on the Citi Field mound. He was jumped on by the Astros for five runs over just three frames last Thursday despite some encouraging rehab outings.
After sleepwalking out of the All-Star break, the Mets’ offense has come alive, plating 14 runs over their last 13 innings. Pete Alonso has been on a tear, authoring a 1.904 OPS and recording five RBI.
Bullpen strategy was crucial for Mets manager Buck Showalter on Tuesday, as he went straight to the reliable Adam Ottavino and Edwin Diaz for the final nine outs. He may not have that luxury in this spot, but he might be able to do without it. The Mets should build a sizable lead off German and never look back.
Trend bettors should note that the Bombers are 2-6 in their last eight meetings with the Mets and own an identical record in their last eight road games against right-handed starters. The Amazins are 20-8 in their last 28 home games against right-handed starters.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-175 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Despite the presence of Scherzer on the bump, the Over looks like the right play here.
It’s possible Scherzer simply shuts the Yankees’ offense down through seven or eight innings, but with the phenomenal run that Aaron Judge has been on, complete domination might be off the table.
Aaron Judge fired the opening salvo with a solo tater in the first inning on Tuesday night, good for his fifth homer and 12th RBI of the second half of the season. The Bombers typically find a way to get on the scoreboard, especially on the road where they’re pacing the majors at 5.41 runs per game.
If Scherzer leaves early, the softer portion of the Mets’ bullpen could be exposed. Drew Smith sports a 7.56 ERA in July (8 1-3 innings) while Joely Rodriguez owns an 11.57 ERA on the month (4 2-3 innings).
The trends suggest an Over is in store too, as these teams have exceeded the total in five of their last six meetings at Citi Field. The Over is 12-3-2 in the Mets’ last 17 interleague games against teams with winning records, and 14-3 in the Yankees’ last 17 overall.
Prediction: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Mets will probably prove best over nine innings, but with such a large advantage in the starting pitching battle on Wednesday night, it’s worth a few cents for the added peace of mind by factoring out the bullpens and simply betting the first five innings moneyline.
The Amazins are second only to the Rockies in first five inning runs per game at 3.13. They should tee off on the overmatched German, with Starling Marte (.381 average in July) and Francisco Lindor (.279 average in July) figuring to get on base in front of Alonso. However, it’s worth noting that the Mets scored only one run off the Bombers’ bullpen on Tuesday, and closer Clay Holmes didn’t even pitch.
If Scherzer doesn’t shut the Yankees out over five frames, he should at least keep the damage to a minimum and secure this first five innings triumph.
Pick: Mets first five innings moneyline (-184 at FanDuel)
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