Yankees vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Cole Chills Os Lineup

A big-time series for the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles gets going Friday night in Maryland. 

While technically not the case, this series feels like a last gasp for the New York Yankees. Having gone .500 in its previous 10, New York is far behind in the AL East race and multiple games in the Wild Card one. A sweep or series loss here, and some of the questions being asked may get much louder. 

For as large of a series as this is for the Yankees, it's easily as significant for the Os. They had created some separation atop the East, only to give some of that back with back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia Phillies. Entering tonight, they are 1.5 games ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays for 1st place. 

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Orioles on Friday, July 28th.

Yankees vs Orioles odds

Yankees vs Orioles predictions

Even after a two-game losing streak, the Orioles are still riding high in Birdland atop the division. With that in mind, it makes sense that the Yankees are muted favorites over the Os – even with their ace. 

Yet still, sometimes it's simple: Are you telling me MLB odds are giving plus money on a fringe Hall-of-Famer in Gerritt Cole to outduel a first-year pitcher with an ERA over 6 and an expected ERA well over 5? I'll take that bet every time, and that's what I'm doing with my best bet tonight. 

Grayson Rodriguez will take the mound this evening for the Os, and he has Baltimore fans excited. They should be. There have been some bright flashes there that show how much potential he has. But he's still very young and raw, and in the present, there are some issues. Those are issues that this Yankees team should be able to exploit.

Rodriguez has some major hard-hit issues. Look at any definable metric you want regarding contact, and you won't find a positive. On that front, things are that bad. Even though this Yankees lineup has had its ups and downs without Aaron Judge in the lineup, it's well-equipped to target this. 

There are still guys like Giancarlo Stanton, Jake Bauers, Anthony Volpe, and DJ LeMahieu who sometimes haven't always been the best hitters but who all have a lot of power with hard-hit rates sitting in the Top 30% of the league. 

This isn't rocket science. This Yankees lineup is built around barrel rate and power bats (not hitting for average), and while that's often been to a fault, it's an excellent attribute when facing a pitcher with one of the highest barrel rates in the majors.

The other side of this is the Cole aspect. 

This is just such a massive pitching advantage, and it's because of how good Cole has been this season. It's been one of the better seasons of his career, and he matches up nicely tonight. Cole's success has always been predicated on getting chases, and he should have some success getting that. Baltimore ranks ninth overall in chase rank. If you've watched the Os lately, that feels like a number that has ticked up recently. That aspect looms large here, and what looms larger is that this is a bounce-back spot for Cole.

If history has told us anything, he usually responds when you get Cole once. He was hit relatively hard two months ago when he first faced this Baltimore team, to the tune of five earned runs in six innings. I'll back that not happening twice.

This is an excellent time to fade Baltimore. I'm bullish on them long-term and have explained why before, but this will be a different line of success. They punched hard in the series against the Tampa Bay Rays a week ago when they took two of three. Since then, they've lost two of three. These ebbs and flows happen with a young team, mainly when they are in the pressure cooker of a tight divisional race. I'm taking the value tonight that the Yankees lead after five innings with the significantly better pitching option. 

My best bet: Yankees first five -0.5 (+110 at FanDuel)

Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay

Yankees F5 -0.5

Cole to Record a Win

Stanton to hit a home run

+1,100 at bet365

We're paring our best bet tonight with two other legs in our same-game parlay that are highly correlated. In the process, we get a handsome payout if things go as planned.

The first leg is Cole to record a win. If the Yankees cash our best bet, this feels close to a free spot. There's not a ton to add here that I haven't said before, but this feels like such a decisive pitching advantage.

I projected the Yankees as favorites here, and getting Cole to go the length needed to record a win feels like a prerequisite based on what we've seen this season. He's gone five or more innings in every start he's made this season. I feel great about this, as long as the Yankees do their part and take advantage of Rodriguez. If they don't, it's likely a nonstarter because our best bet will have been lost.

The last leg is taking Giancarlo Stanton to go yard. Again, this isn't rocket science. The pitcher gives up a lot of hard contact, and this batter hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball. I'll like to take that player to hit a home run. I like that even more when the temperatures are in the 90s, and the winds are blowing out. Conditions that should improve ball carry and the likelihood of a home run. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I'm leaning on the Yankees to win this game outright. I have more value from a first-five perspective when putting these two pitchers head-to-head.

I'm a broken record, but there are just too many knocks on Rodriguez in this spot. This is the Bronx Bombers of last season, but they still have plenty of power to take advantage of a pitcher who struggles with that. They still sit in the Top 10 of baseball in critical metrics such as barrel rate, solid contact, and hard-hit rate.

There's also the situational aspects of things too. The Yankees feel the mounting pressure of the playoff race, and the Orioles feel the mounting pressure of the divisional race. You can argue for either side, but generally, I'll take my chances trusting the veteran side to respond more strongly to this.

I have no strong opinion on the total in this game. I made this total 9, and we're at a number of 8.5 from oddsmakers. With that in mind, there's a slight lean to the Over, but I don't think it's actionable enough. The threat of Cole having a dominant start is higher than usual here, given the stakes of this series and his looking to avenge a bad start against them previously. With that in mind, it solidifies this as a stay-away spot. 

The last 10 meetings between these two teams have gone Over to 7-2. That aids the lean of the Over, but I'd look for a live number rather than anything pregame. 

Trend to know

Gerrit Cole has a 1.6 ERA over his last five games. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles

Yankees vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (9-2, 2.78 ERA): Gerrit Cole has been Gerrit Cole. He's closing in on one of the better seasons of his career and has seen improvements from a season ago to his ERA along with WHIP. You'd like him to give up a little less hard contact, but all the metrics are encouraging. That includes pairing a Top 25% chase rate with a Top 10% fastball velocity. Those two things have yielded substantial success this season, and the ERA mostly speaks for itself. He's been a model of consistency. In all of the starts in July, he's gone at least six innings, including his most recent start, where he allowed two earned runs against the Kansas City Royals. 

Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 6.91 ERA): My best diagnosis of Grayson Rodriguez is that the tools are there; he's just yet to use them to fulfill his potential. The strikeout rate is encouraging, especially since it's his first season in the bigs. He sits in the Top 30% of the league, and he's seen multiple games with 8 Ks or more. However, everything else has been relatively lackluster. The ERA stands out like a sore thumb, although an expected number closer to 5 says it should be slightly better. Alongside that is a hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity, which are all in the very bottom-dweller of baseball. Rodriguez will continue to have an excessively high ERA until he can induce more soft contact. He's yet to figure out the way to do that. 

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic