Yankees vs Orioles Predictions, Picks, Odds: Baltimore Returns to Prime Time in Style

It is a special occasion when the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball.

Why is it so special? This is the first time the O's have graced the primetime Sunday night slot since 2018. The moment is a testament to the franchise's meteoric rise over the last two seasons and its return to being among the elite. These two have split the series' first two games, making the distance between first and last in the AL East just eight games. That speaks volumes to just how competitive the division has been this season. Three of the five teams in the division would be in the playoffs if things ended today.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Orioles on Sunday, July 30th.

Yankees vs Orioles odds

Yankees vs Orioles predictions

I've written it before, and I'll say again: this Yankees team is challenging to figure out. We've all seen what it looks like without Aaron Judge, and it added more validity to his MVP award a season ago than his play likely ever could. They have gone 1-1 since his return, and the verdict on where they'll finish this season is still very much in the air.

With that in mind, I will take what I believe to be the strongest data point in this one, and that's the rapid improvement of Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer, who will take the mound tonight for the O's. My best bet? His Over 16.5 outs. I projected this number at 17.5, so I'll happily grab it at the price of -120.

Kremer has exceeded this number in three of his last four starts, including the last time he faced this Yankees team. He was dominant then, posting 10 strikeouts in a seven-inning appearance and allowing just one earned run. While Kremer is unlikely to repeat the same strikeout performance, it's hard for me to argue that he doesn't have a similar dominance performance in this spot.

Kremer has had success with his cutter this season, yielding a 27% whiff rate and providing a strong secondary pitch to his fastball. I'd expect him to lean on it a ton tonight because there's a good amount of easy outs in this Yankees lineup with this pitch. Consider that just two players in tonight's lineup have a positive run value against the cutter this season. One of those is Judge, who is still ramping up to game shape. Half the lineup New York will put on the field has a whiff rate above 25% against this pitch. I'm expecting those numbers to hold up here and for Kremer to have substantial success as a result.

It's hard to speak too strongly about what the Yankees offense did sans Judge. Again, he's such a significant part of this team that those numbers carry little weight, but it's still worth mentioning the struggles. The outburst came last night, but leading up to that game, it had been shut out and scored fewer than four runs in back-to-back games. Contrast that to Kremer's recent stretch, and this feels like a solid spot to buy on him.

There are not a lot of data points here, but it's not that complicated. Let's lay it out:

• The Yankees offense has been poor
• The Yankees struggle mightily against one of his best pitches
• Kremer has reached peak form

These three things add up to Kremer once again going over 16.5 outs. It's the best bet on the board. 

My best bet: Dean Kremer Over 16.5 outs recorded (-120 at bet365)

Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay

Dean Kremer Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-115)

Giancarlo Stanton Under 1.5 total bases (-165)

Orioles most hits (-125)

+275 at bet365

Unexpectedly (and throughout writing this), bet365 pulled its outs recorded props from being used in same-game parlays. With that in mind, we've had to pivot to Under 2.5 runs instead of Over 16.5 Outs. The analysis used above is virtually identical. I just saw more value on the outs prop vs. the runs. Either way, we're dealing with a lousy offense against a pitcher with a good matchup.

We paired things with two pretty straightforward plays. We are fading Giancarlo Stanton hard. It's one of my favorite plays on the board. Stanton has the highest whiff rate on the team against the cutter and unless he's going deep, it's difficult to see him exceed this number. As we've mentioned, this is a pitch Kremer should and will lean on tonight. I expect him to blow Stanton away with it. 

The last leg of parlay is the Orioles to have the most hits between the two teams. This is as straightforward as can be. This has happened to Luis Severino in five consecutive starts, even with his recent improvements. It shouldn't change against a Baltimore lineup that matches up fairly well against him.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I don't have much of a feel for a side here so I'm staying away. My projections made this an exact coin flip of a matchup. By that logic, there's some slight value in grabbing the Yankees at plus money, but I need more. 

It's anyone's guess as to why Severino has struggled so much this season. There are some small indications that he's potentially turned a corner over his last two starts, and that's likely made this number closer than it would be. However, I need more value to back him. Particularly given how much the Orioles have shelled him.

As for the total, I lean Under. I will place a half unit on the 9 available at -120 over at FanDuel. 

In a vacuum, both pitchers are on the upswing and in a period of good form. I've knocked Severino a ton, but again, there are some reasons to be optimistic after he's put back-to-back quality starts together for the first time all season. Throw in the aforementioned Kremer aspect, a Yankees offense that has been relatively lackluster; plus, both of these teams know the importance of this series finale, and you have the recipe for a low-scoring game. 

Conditions in Camden Yards should be good for a reduction of home runs. Winds will be blowing in, and it should be less humid. That's good for two pitchers who have occasionally struggled with the long ball this season. It also adds to the value of playing the Under in this spot tonight. I expect this to become the second game of this three-game set between these teams to go Under.

Trend to know

Dean Kremer has recorded Over 16.5 Outs in three of his previous four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles

Yankees vs Orioles game info

Starting pitchers

Luis Severino (2-4, 6.46 ERA): It has been quite the fall from grace for Severino, especially compared to a season ago. What sticks out the most is how hard he's been hit with a barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard hit rate among baseball's worst. That said, Severino does enter today off of two back-to-back quality starts — a first this season. His last game saw him go six innings against the Royals, allowing three earned runs.

Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59 ERA): Kremer has turned a page this month. Yeah, there was a rough start against the Dodgers when he allowed five earned runs in just over four innings. Outside of that, in his other three most recent starts, Kremer has allowed two earned runs or fewer and gone six innings or more each time. That includes a start against the Yankees to begin the month when he allowed two earned runs in a six-inning win. 

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