Yankees vs Rays Picks and Predictions: Cortes Pitches Gem in Yanks Win

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet for Game 2 of a three-game series tonight. 

Last night mainly went as expected from a scoring perspective as it was a one-run game after six innings. From there, both teams traded scoring until New York pulled away for a final time in the ninth inning, winning the game 4-2

Can Tampa Bay bounce back tonight? Read our MLB betting picks and predictions for Rays vs. Yankees to see which side we'll be backing. 

Yankees vs Rays odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Odds for this game were released this morning. The Yankees opened up as -160 favorites, with the Rays returning around +150. The odds have mostly stayed there across the board.  The total opened up at 7.0 and stayed there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Yankees vs Rays predictions

• Prediction: Yankees F5 -0.5 (-125)
• Prediction: Rays TT Under 1.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Highest-scoring inning: Yankees (-120)

Picks made on 6/21/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Yankees vs Rays game info

• Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa, Florida
• Date: Tuesday, June 21, 2022
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun

Yankees vs Rays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Nestor Cortes (6-2, 1.94 ERA): Cortes' story this season has been pretty cool to watch. The lefty had a career ERA that hovered around 4.00 before the season started. He's been pretty much elite through nearly the halfway point this season, surrendering just five earned runs in June. Four of those runs came via the Twins, who also hit two home runs, partly due to their elite barrel rate. Pretty much all Cortes' peripherals impress. Maybe you'd like to have a little more swings and misses, but it hasn't mattered. Not only is Cortes' actual ERA impressive, but his expected ERA suggests little-to-no regression should be coming. 

Jalen Beeks (1-1, 1.29 ERA) Beeks' start indicates this will be a bullpen game for the Rays as he has only thrown over two innings once this season. However, Beeks has been relatively impressive this year. He made five starts in June — all of which were less than two innings — and gave up just one earned run. Beeks does an excellent job of inducing soft contact with a hard-hit rate that ranks at the top of the majors. However, the juxtaposition between his actual and expected ERA comes with a warning of possible regression. His barrel rate is a problem, especially against a team with bats like the Yankees. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Yankees: Aroldis Chapman RP (Out).
Rays: Kevin Kiermaier CF (Out), Manuel Margot CF (Out), Mike Zunino C (Out), Wander Franco 2B (Out), Brandon Lowe 2B (Out), Drew Rasmussen RP (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the last two meetings between the Yankees and Rays. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays

Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The story is quite the same as it was yesterday for the Yankees. They have an elite pitcher on the mound and won't need to score many runs to win. This time, though, I believe they'll have their best pitcher and the better pitcher between the two teams. That's a large part of this handicap and why I'm riding the Yankees tonight. 

It's difficult to handicap a bullpen game from the hitting perspective of the Yankees. There are a few things we do know, though: Beeks has pitched two scoreless innings against the Yankees. The second is that the Yankees' batting average increases roughly by 10% the second time they see a pitcher.

We also know is that Beeks' barrel rate ranks in the bottom 20% of all MLB pitchers. He's going against a team with the best barrel rate in baseball and the hottest bats. Seeing them take Beeks long a few times early wouldn't be a shocker, and it could prove to be huge, given the state of the Rays' offense.

I have much more confidence in what Nestor Cortes will do on the mound. Teams that have given him issues are teams that have reasonable barrel rates — just look at the evidence. His worst outing came against Minnesota when he gave up four earned runs. The Twins have the third-best barrel rate in baseball.

The Rays are the antithesis of the Twins. Tampa has the fourth-lowest barrel rate in baseball. Its offense has been anemic as of late, scoring over two runs just once in its last five games. It seems unthinkable that it'll have any early success against Cortes. That probability went even lower when big bats Kevin Kiermaier and Manuel Margot went down with injuries last night.

I think New York rolls outright tonight, winning by a few runs, but I have higher confidence when I can isolate Cortes on the mound. I feel good about him going five innings or more which is while I'll be attacking that market. 

Prediction: Yankees first five -0.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

I'm going to be looking to target Tampa's offensive issues.

The Rays have ranked 26th in wOBA. As a team, they are generally better against left-handed pitching, but the absences of Margot and Franco, among others, make that more of a tricky proposition. Without those two in the lineup, it leaves them with Ji-Man Choi as their best hitter.

Unfortunately for the Rays, his numbers take a significant dip against left-handers. For his career, his OPS goes from .835 against right-handers to around .600 against lefties. It leaves Tampa in a pretty compromising position when it desperately searches for the offense. 

On a night-to-night basis picking what the Yankees' offense will do can be a bit of a tall task. The bats are hot right now, but plenty of advanced numbers suggest their pitching is much more sustainable than their offense. So it causes you to hesitate a little more on full-game totals, and that's why I'll be avoiding them today.

Instead we'll be looking to isolate Cortes on the mound once again and play the Under on the Rays' team total in the first half of the game. I may sound like a bit like a broken record, but this offense has looked dreadful for a few weeks now, and they look even worse early in games. 

Prediction: Rays' first five team total Under 1.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Best bet

I'm going to be involved in multiple ways in this game. First, I'll look around for a good number on the Rays to be shut out through five innings and the entire game. Both of those are at excellent plus money numbers. I'll also back Cortes to get a win at plus money. Finally, I may even search the Internet for a market on a Cortes' no-hitter. That's just how much of a nonbeliever I am in the Rays tonight.

After inputting the new Tampa injuries, my personal projections have the Rays scoring Under two runs around 45% of the time and Under three runs around 70% of the time. I'm a little more confident than that. But either way, it makes my best bet today pretty strong.

I'll be betting the Yankees to have the highest-scoring inning. This is available at FanDuel and has become a bit of an auto-bet for me throughout the season. In about 90% of the wins the Yankees have had this season, they've either won or pushed on this market. I believe they win tonight, which makes this an excellent way to back them without paying the juice on the outright moneyline. 

Pick: Highest-scoring inning: New York Yankees (-120 at FanDuel)

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