The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will conclude a series on Sunday Night Baseball for the second week in a row.
These two will play a doubleheader today after a rain-out yesterday and each played a mid-week series in between its series from last weekend before facing one another again.
The closest of the primetime duels prompted Red Sox manager Alex Cora to semi-jokingly tell the media he thought the series was getting too much attention. Boston will enter today with a 3-1 season-long advantage over New York; that mark could be evened or decisive by the night's end.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Yankees below.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox predictions
Here's what we have tonight: A team — albeit a small sample — that has dominated the other this season, a steadily-improving pitcher taking on a steadily regressing one, and an offense that scores the second-most runs in baseball at home against one still missing its most prominent star in the lineup.
Luis Severino will take the mound for the pinstripes tonight, and the struggles of his season are just impossible to look past. This handicap is a fade of him just as much as anything.
Severino has one of the worst expected ERAs in baseball at 6.35. He's given up 4+ runs in three consecutive starts and has mainly been troubled by the hard-hit ball. That's a problem facing this Boston Red Sox team with plenty of hard hitters in its lineup.
Boston isn't a team that ranks tremendously high in barrel rate or exit velocity, but when you pull back the curtain, you see more of the full story. The BoSox rank in the Top 10 in the expected slugging, wOBA, and batting average; only five other teams in baseball can claim that.
And as I've mentioned, this offense gears up in Fenway and averages an entire run higher there. You can pick which Severino metrics you want to target; they're all bad. However, the barrel and whiff rates in the Bottom 20% of baseball are particularly troubling. The Red Sox have shown they are both a good-hitting and unlucky team. That's a bad combo for Severino.
On the other side, I mentioned Brayan Bello steadily building over his last few starts, and one of the best examples of that was his most recent. It came against this Yankees team, where he allowed just two earned runs over seven innings. You could make the case it was his best start of the season, and even a skeptic would have to say he's improving.
"The kid is growing up," Cora said after that last start. It's easy to see and I expect more of the same tonight. This Yankees lineup continues to suffer with the void left by Aaron Judge's absence. As long as Bello's command is in check, he should be able to work through this lineup comfortably before handing things off to a well-rested bullpen.
It's a juicy price, but it's the best bet in tonight's game. I priced them at -155 this evening, which gives me a comfortable edge.
My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (-137 at BetRivers)
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Red Sox ML
Red Sox first-inning 3-way ML
Our same-game parlay tonight couldn't be simpler, and at the price point, it's pretty attractive. The theme today has been fading Luis Severino. His time in the starting rotation for the Yankees is almost enough, and tonight could solidify that.
One of the most significant issues for Severino this season is simply getting off to a good start. In his last start against the Mets, he gave up two earned runs in the first inning, which marked the third out of his previous four starts in which a first-inning run was scored.
Counter that with the fact that the Red Sox offense is back at home and, as I've discussed, Fenway has been everything for their offense. In home games, Boston has scored an average of .84 first-inning runs, the third-best mark in baseball and in huge contrast to their .12 runs scored in the opening frame on the road.
Since we're playing the Red Sox moneyline and not just to score, we're taking a risk, but it's one we're willing to take. Bello has progressed nicely over the last month, and there's little to suggest it doesn't continue tonight. Pairing this first-inning bet with our best bet presents some excellent value that I priced at +330.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I'm comfortably backing the Red Sox tonight as my best bet.
Both tickets and money are also flowing in that direction, according to Covers Consensus. While I was writing this article, our best bet price dropped from -132 to -137. Bettors are seeing what we all see: this is just a decisive pitching mismatch.
Severino has shown you little reason to place faith in him to manage through this game. That's an even stronger belief, or lack thereof when he'll face one of the best home offenses in baseball in Fenway. The status quo tonight means that the Red Sox hit Severino hard early and often before handing this off to a well-rested bullpen.
As for the total, it's nearly on the dot to what my projections are saying. I'd lean to the Under, but it's not a bet for me, so I do it with little conviction. At Fenway tonight, winds will blow in, and it will be a cooler night.
BallparkPal is calling for a slight reduction in runs but a significant decrease in home runs. That could keep Severino around the game longer than it otherwise would. Depending on how you look at things, that's either a good thing for the Under or bad. You know that blow-up inning is likely coming; you're just wondering when and if it will be enough to get the job done on the Over. That highlights my hesitation to bother with a bet on a side here.
The trends are strictly pointing to one direction, and that's a low-scoring game. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams. Additionally, the Under has hit eight in the previous 10 Game 2s of a double-header for the Yankees and 12 of the last 14 for the Red Sox.
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Trend to know
Luis Severino has given up 4+ runs in three consecutive starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (0-1, 6.48 ERA): What I wrote passionately about Bello precisely one week ago still holds: "I believe that Bello is turning a bit of a corner. The metrics aren't impressive, and he's been hit pretty hard a few times this season. That said, things of late have been improved from an eye test and a numbers game." He responded in that start by going seven innings and allowing two earned runs with no decision. You could argue that it was his best start of the season, and it continues to be a theme of Bello's rapid improvement, although the metrics still need to catch up fully.
James Paxton (2-1, 3.09 ERA): It's hard to find many positive things to say about Severino. He started the season relatively strong, but after that, it's been mostly a nightmare. A glass-half-full view would point to the limited data, but some of these starts are hard to ignore. There have now been three straight games where Severino has lasted five innings or fewer while allowing 4+ runs. He couples that with one of the worst expected ERAs in the league and metrics that are all rough. His time in the rotation could be limited once the Yankees staff is fully healthy.
