With the international break in full swing, there are just three matches on the MLS calendar this weekend. Just one features two teams that could very well be in the playoffs, however, as Charlotte FC and the New York Red Bulls square off on Saturday afternoon.
The Red Bulls look to continue one of the greatest road starts any team has ever put together in the history of the league, while Charlotte hopes to get a win in their first match since changing managers.
No matter who prevails, this should be an entertaining match, with a matchup of two contrasting styles. Check out our MLS picks and predictions for Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls for Saturday, June 11.
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls betting tips
- Prediction: Red Bulls ML (+125)
- Prediction: Red Bulls Over 1.5 goals (+110)
- Best bet: Second half to have the most goals (+110)
Predictions made on 6/10/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls game info
• Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
• Date: Saturday, June 11, 2022
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls betting preview
Weather
Rain in the morning will give way to sunshine in Charlotte on Saturday afternoon, but temperatures are not expected to get past 90 degrees. Wind should not be a factor, and the chance of rain during the match is very slim.
Injuries
Charlotte FC: Harrison Afful D (Out), Yordy Reyna M (Out), Pablo Sisniega GK (Questionable), Adam Armour M (Out), Chris Hegardt M (Out), Karol Swiderski F (Out).
New York Red Bulls: Cameron Harper M (Out), Ashley Fletcher F (Doubtful), Lucas Monzon D (Out), Andres Reyes D (Out), Serge Ngoma F (Out), Aaron Long D (Out).
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Despite having played just 14 matches in their club’s history, Charlotte FC are already onto their second manager. Miguel Angel Ramirez was surprisingly fired at the end of May, with their 2-1 defeat at Seattle on May 30th giving him eight losses on the season.
Things were rocky from the start, with his off-season criticism of the roster to the standoffish relationship he seemed to have with the players. That’s the impression that veteran defender Christian Fuchs gave when asked about the situation this week, stating Ramirez was unable to connect with the players.
New manager Christian Lattanzi steps in seeking to keep a more compact shape in defense while focusing on being more clinical and aggressive at the other end. Charlotte have struggled to turn possession and opportunities into meaningful chances this season, with their 1.07 xG per 90 minutes being the third-lowest in the league.
This is despite averaging 4.36 shots on goal per match and possessing the ball for 53.4% of the time, both ranking eighth in MLS. They will take solace in the fact that they've won five of their last six matches in front of home fans, with three clean sheets in that span.
Converting chances is not an issue for their opponent. The Red Bulls enter the match having scored 10 goals over their last three contests, including a 4-1 thrashing of DC United two weeks ago. Gerhard Struber’s outfit ended a four-match run without a victory, albeit having lost just once in that span, as they scored four goals after halftime. Their 24 goals are the fifth-most in the league, with Lewis Morgan and Luquinhas having scored half of those between themselves.
New York now hits the road where they’ve put together a historic run. Winners of an MLS record-tying five straight away matches to start the season, their 2-0 loss at Inter Miami on their last away excursion was their first in seven road matches this season, and just their third on the whole. Of their 24 goals this season, 14 have come on the road as they’ve taken 16 of a possible 21 points.
That said, the Red Bulls' defense cannot be overlooked, with their 15 goals allowed ranked third in the league this season, although Aaron Long’s presence will be missed this weekend as he is out on international duty. Charlotte will be implementing a new set of tactics with a new voice, and by all accounts, they will be in a better mindset as they take the pitch on Saturday than they perhaps have been in all season.
However, that doesn’t magically fix their ability to score. Their average shot attempt takes place 17.4 yards per goal, one of the furthest away in MLS this season, and their paltry expected assists per 90 mark shows a real struggle to create chances. Despite their high possession, they take more touches in their own defensive third than three-quarters of the league. This type of slow, methodical play without much reward tends to struggle against pressing sides, and nobody presses better than New York.
Not only do they lead MLS in total pressures by a very large margin, but they've also registered the fourth-best successful pressure percentage and have allowed the fewest touches in their final third of any team. Given their stellar road form and the fact that Charlotte’s leading scorer this season is with the Polish national team at the moment, I doubt a new manager bump will be enough to see them take a result on the day.
Prediction: Red Bulls moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The Red Bulls have found the back of the net in six of their seven away matches this season, with multiple goals in four of those tilts. Their stunning capitulation to Inter Miami aside, only twice have they failed to score more than once away from home. In both of those matches, they were down to 10 men for at least 20 minutes.
On the other side, Charlotte have allowed just one side to score multiple goals at Bank of America Stadium this season, with CF Montreal walking away with a 2-0 victory last month. That stat is somewhat indicative of the attacking quality they've faced, as Montreal is the only home opponent they’ve faced this season averaging better than 1.5 goals per contest.
In addition, the Red Bulls put three past Charlotte last month in their US Open Cup match in New York. They will test their defense much more thoroughly with a stronger lineup in this match.
Take the visitors to yet again to find the back of the net at least twice.
Prediction: Red Bulls Over 1.5 goals (+110 at DraftKings)
Best bet
While New York have been a goal-scoring machine this season, they’ve done much of their damage after the halftime interval. Of their 24 goals scored this season, just eight have come in the opening 45 minutes. Away from home, they’ve scored six goals in seven matches in the opening stanza, but have found the back of the net a league-leading eight times in the second half.
In addition, Charlotte’s seven home matches in 2022 have seen a total of eight goals scored after halftime, versus just six beforehand. In addition, they’ve conceded a goal just twice at home before halftime. With their offensive struggles this season and given what their new manager hopes to focus on, I expect Charlotte to come out a bit cautious to avoid conceding any early goals against New York’s relentless pressure.
This should lead to a cagey opening first half, and provide more opportunities for goals after the break. Take the second half to have more goals for the fourth time in New York’s last six road tilt.
Pick: Second half to have the most goals (+110 at FanDuel)
