Saturday's headliner in MLS betting is the Trillium Cup, contested annually between rivals Columbus Crew and Toronto FC. While TFC have won the last three season series between the Crew and Toronto, it's the Crew who have gotten off to a hot start in the new season with four points through two games.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the Columbus Crew vs. Toronto FC, with kickoff set for March 12.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLS odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC betting tips
Predictions made on 3/11/2022 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC game info
• Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, OH
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+, TSN
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC betting preview
Weather
We'll have freezing conditions in Columbus on Saturday for the Trillium Cup, with temperatures around 25 degrees Fareheehit at kickoff. There's no snow forecast overnight Friday or during the day Saturday, however.
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
It's a new era for Toronto FC after bottoming out in recent seasons, and they entered a fresh chapter in a typically big TFC way. There was a splash at manager, as they went and hired long-time USMNT manager Bob Bradley, most recently of LAFC. And there was a splash in attack, with Napoli legend Lorenzo Insigne set to arrive in the summer.
With one of the best managers North America has ever produced, the financial resources to compete with any team in MLS, and one of the most talented players in league history arriving this summer, Toronto will surely turn it around and return to contender status. That, however, appears to evade it a bit longer.
TFC have gotten off to a poor start in 2022, with just a point from two games. That point, in the opener in Dallas, was lucky to come by as Toronto was vastly out-created in xG, 2.6-1.4, in what finished as a 1-1 draw. TFC wasn't so lucky at the second time of asking, as they were hammered by New York Red Bulls, 4-1. That was simply a collapse with little resistance, as Toronto conceded all four goals in the space of 25 minutes.
The Crew's attempt to return to postseason play has gotten off to a considerably better start. Columbus began the year with a fortunate fixture, playing a Whitecaps team that has rarely bordered on competency over the last five-plus years. That game went about as expected, with Vancouver pulled apart in a 4-0 loss.
Columbus' thrilling play carried into the next weekend, in which it had three points in the bag — until that bag emptied. The Crew were up 3-1 on 10-man San Jose with six minutes left plus injury time, only for the Earthquakes to pull one back and then score an equalizer in the final moments.
While the Crew should have done better to hold a lead there, it was a proper smash-and-grab from San Jose, who created very little. The Earthquakes totaled just 12 shot-creating actions and 1.4 expected goals — over half of which came from a ninth-minute penalty scored by San Jose.
Save for 10 minutes of calamity against the shorthanded Earthquakes, the early returns from the Crew have been very promising. They've effectively contained the opposition, created a ton of chances going forward, and have an early MVP candidate in attacking midfielder Lucas Zelarayan. We've seen far more out of Columbus than Toronto thus far, so it only makes sense to back the Crew in this rivalry matchup.
Prediction: Columbus Crew (-154)
Over/Under analysis
It's surprising to see the Over 3 sitting at plus money for this game, as every indication is to expect plenty of goals.
The Crew have been goal machines through two games. They finished the first weekend as the league's second-highest scoring team as they put four past the Whitecaps in a 4-0 drubbing. Then their second game, against the Earthquakes, produced even more fireworks in a thrilling 3-3 draw which featured four goals in the final 25 minutes.
Not to be outdone, TFC have seen plenty of goals in their games this season, too. The first game of the season, a 1-1 draw with FC Dallas, surprisingly finished all level despite Dallas creating 2.6 expected goals, with TFC creating 1.4 xG themselves. That swung back around in the second match week, as five goals were scored in the first half of TFC's 4-1 loss to the New York Red Bulls.
The early struggles in defense are foreboding for a team who were downright horrific defensively a season ago, conceding 66 goals in 34 games.
We have a rivalry game that often features high-scoring displays, with one team's games averaging 5.0 goals and the other 3.5. We're going Over here.
Prediction: Over 3 (+113)
Best bet
In a match that promises goals, we're looking to the goalscorer market and have good value in backing Crew forward Derrick Etienne to score anytime.
Etienne has started both of Columbus' games so far alongside Miguel Berry and is tied for second on the team with one goal so far. He's also second on the team in shot-creating actions (10) and goal-creating actions (2) per 90 minutes, while leading the Crew in xG, with 1.1.
Etienne's goalscoring chances should remain high throughout the season, with Crew No. 10 Lucas Zelarayan starting the year in fantastic form and creating a high number of chances. Between Etienne's pace and Zelarayan's ability to play through balls (he averaged 4.92 progressive passes per 90 over the last year) against a mediocre TFC centerback pairing, the Crew attacker should find himself through on goal with a great chance to cash this prop at good odds.
Prediction: Derrick Etienne anytime goal (+350)
