New York City FC looks for redemption and sole possession of first place in the Eastern Conference when they play New York Red Bulls, their cross-town rivals in the first Hudson River Derby of the 2022 MLS season.
Both New York-based teams are in the running for first place, with the Red Bulls two points behind second-place NYCFC and three points adrift of first-place Philadelphia.
NYCFC, just a point behind the Union, have a match in hand and, with a victory on Sunday, would put five points between them and the Red Bulls while leapfrogging Philadelphia.
The Cityzens will attempt to get rid of a lingering sour taste after their last trip to Red Bull Arena, which resulted in a 0-3 setback in the US Open Cup quarterfinal.
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC betting tips
Predictions made on 7/15/2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC game info
• Location: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, New Jersey
• Date: Sunday, July 17, 2022
• Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC betting preview
Weather
Sunday should see a high of 84?F with a mere 15% chance of precipitation. Light 13 km/hour winds along with a fairly high 64% humidity are expected at kickoff.
Injuries
New York Red Bulls: Lucas Monzon D (Out), AJ Marcucci GK (Out), M Wiki Carmona (Questionable), Andres Reyes D (Questionable), Tom Edwards D (Questionable).
New York City FC: Keaton Parks M (Out), Anton Tinnerholm D (Out), Maxi Moralez M (Questionable), Alexander Callens D (Questionable).
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
The Red Bulls, who are undefeated in eight games in all competitions at Red Bull Arena, have turned their home form around after a six-match winless streak to start the season.
Their counter-punch style suits Sunday’s contest, as the Cityzens prefer to dominate the ball and dictate play. The Red Bulls haven’t lost in over three months at home, their last defeat a 2-1 setback against Montreal on April 9.
Three home wins on the bounce by a combined 8-2 score have the Red Bulls scorching hot at home entering the business end of the campaign. Despite the Red Bulls’ recent invincibility at Red Bull Arena, they still hold the Eastern Conference’s fourth-worst home record.
Sputtering out of the gates, the Red Bulls secured just four points from a possible 18 on home field. While their current six-game home MLS unbeaten streak is worth raving about, Gerhard Struber’s men have still only taken 13 from a possible 27 at Red Bull Arena.
Based on recent proceedings, that horrific start is now nothing more than supressed memories for Struber’s side.
Not only are the Red Bulls enjoying an indomitable spell in the friendly confines of their home arena, their eyes also collectively light up when NYCFC come knocking. The Red Bulls have won six of their last seven home encounters against the Cityzens.
Overall, the Red Bulls have lost just one of their last six against their bitter rivals. However, NYCFC won’t fear the upcoming test at Red Bull Arena.
Interim coach Nick Cushing, after starting his tenure without a win in four, has guided his side to two straight MLS victories, the most recent of which an impressive 1-0 away victory over FC Dallas.
NYCFC are a bit of an enigma, as their inability to score goals on the road starkly contrasts their home potency. The Cityzens are easily the highest-scoring team in the Eastern Conference, bagging 38 goals in 19 fixtures, though only 10 have occurred on hostile terrain, showcasing the problematic dichotomy Cushing faces.
While Cushing’s side struggles to score away from home, they boast an outstanding defensive record in enemy environs. The Cityzens have allowed nine goals in eight away contests, four of which against Cincinnati on June 29. Aside from that run-and-gun shootout against the Orange and Blue, the Cityzens have conceded a conference-best five goals in seven away matches.
NYCFC enters Sunday’s match losing only one of their recent five away contests. Even more tellingly, they’ve suffered defeat just once in their last 14 MLS games.
With both teams playing their best soccer and considering the importance of the contest, expect a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. The Cityzens should escape Red Bull Arena with a share of the spoils in a 1-1 stalemate.
Prediction: Draw (+250 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Aside from the aforementioned aberration in Cincinnati, NYCFC doesn’t concede goals on the road. They kept Dallas from scoring on Wednesday and have recorded four clean sheets in eight away matches.
Philadelphia and Toronto are the only sides this season who have managed to score two goals in a home contest against the Cityzens.
And while Nick Cushing’s side are known for their prolific attack and propensity to score in bunches, that rarely happens on the road. Four of their 10 away goals this season were scored in that infamous match against Cincinnati, mustering only six goals in the other seven tilts.
Five of the Red Bulls’ last six MLS matches have resulted in the Under. The Red Bulls also know how to keep the Cityzens at bay, keeping clean sheets in five of their last seven meetings at Red Bull Arena.
Both teams understand acutely the gravity of Sunday’s contest and will acquit themselves accordingly. There is no margin for error, so expect a tight, cagey match.
Look for the Under in this one.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-137 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Valentin Castellanos leads the MLS with 12 goals, one ahead of four players. The Argentinian is easily the most prolific goalscorer in the league, netting 12 goals in just 15 games, a 0.8 goal-per-game return.
Seemingly a shoo-in to score on Sunday, the 23-year-old has scored 21 goals in his last 22 MLS appearances.
Lock it in at +140 and watch the formidable striker continue his remarkable almost goal-per-match scoring record.
Pick: Valentin Castellanos to score anytime (+140 at BetMGM)
