Orlando City and New York Red Bulls face off Sunday in a matchup of the only two teams in MLS yet to lose away from home. Red Bulls have claimed victory in their first three away matches for the first time in club history, while the Lions are coming off consecutive wins for the first time since early October of last season.
The early-season success has both sides sitting in the Top 3 of the Eastern Conference, and Orlando City will seek to end a two-match skid to the visitors. Meanwhile, New York must find answers to their scoring woes if they wish to keep their perfect away record intact. Here are our Orlando City vs New York picks and predictions for Sunday, April 24.
Orlando City SC vs Red Bulls match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Orlando City SC vs Red Bulls betting tips
Predictions made on 4/22/2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Orlando City SC vs Red Bulls game info
• Location: Orlando City Stadium, Orlando, FL
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Orlando City SC vs Red Bulls betting preview
Weather
The forecast for mid-afternoon in Orlando calls for lots of sun with temperatures in the mid-80s. There is a minimal chance of precipitation, with winds expected to be in the 14 to 16 mph range for the duration of the match.
Orlando City SC vs Red Bulls predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Orlando City has put together a very impressive month. Aside from a 4-2 defeat to LAFC, arguably the best team in the league, the Lions have been nearly flawless. They recorded consecutive clean-sheet victories over Chicago and Columbus, with a win at the Galaxy and a draw at Portland added to the mix. Their five clean sheets this campaign are tied for the most in MLS, with keeper Pedro Gallese in stellar form. His 3.45 xG difference ranks third-best in the league, allowing just six to get past him from 9.45 expected goals. It has helped offset the loss of defensive stalwart Antonio Carlos, expected to be out three to four months after tearing his hamstring.
It's a similar story with New York, with keeper Carlos Coronel ranked second in the league in goals prevented over the past four weeks. He ranks eighth in MLS with a 2.52 xG difference, facing an expected 8.52 goals and allowing just six. Despite this, New York has kept just two clean sheets in seven outings, despite their xG against of 0.82 being second-best in the league.
Orlando looks to move to four unbeaten in all competitions after a mid-week 2-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rowdies in the third round of the US Open Cup. Alexandre Pato, who opened scoring against the Rowdies from the penalty spot, was terrific as the starting center forward and has scored two goals while assisting two others in his last four starts. He is leading the team with nearly three shots per match, despite playing both as the lone striker and wide on the right.
Orlando’s second goal in the 2-0 win over Columbus was a dream come true for manager Oscar Pareja, a brilliant move that saw seven passes completed in a six-second span. It was capped off by a spinning first-touch finish by striker Ercan Kara, as the 6’4” forward found the back of the net for the second time in as many matches.
One of four Lions with two assists on Orlando’s 10 league goals this season, Kara provided Orlando with a different look as his hold-up play enabled the side to hold more possession than usual. It was a deviation from their typical pressing style, giving them an option to offset some of the defensive gaps left by Carlos’ absence.
As for New York, their stellar away form has offset real struggles at home. They have taken just two of a possible 12 points at Red Bull Arena, having found the back of the net just twice. That’s in stark contrast to their three wins and eight goals on the road. Their finishing has been the culprit, as the offense has been held without a goal in three of their last five outings after scoring seven over their first two matches. In fact, their most recent MLS win, a 1-0 victory at New England, was courtesy of a fluke own-goal late in proceedings.
While they claimed a 2-1 victory midweek in a visit to Hartford Athletic in the US Open Cup, they are winless in their last two MLS outings. Last weekend saw a scoreless draw with FC Dallas, despite having an xG advantage of 1.81 to 0.33 while registering 20 shots, seven on goal, and having a 9-0 advantage on corners. That follows a 2-1 defeat to CF Montreal, where they scored just once despite 15 shots attempted.
Much of the focus has been directed at forward Patryk Klimala, who has failed to score in his last five matches despite 13 shots. He leads the team in failed touches, and his abysmal 59.3% pass completion rate is contributing to a 70.6% mark for the team, second-worst in MLS. Some of the blame also falls on the shoulders of manager Gerhard Stuber, who has put out five different formations in their seven matches. It has limited the ability for his side to build cohesion and chemistry, evidenced by the fact that standout wide man Lewis Morgan has featured in six different positions already this season.
Orlando has found the back of the net 10 times this season on just 30 shots on target, while New York’s league-high 41 shots on goal have yielded just nine goals scored. Given New York’s struggles offensively, I give the advantage to Orlando. They’ve had seven different players find the back of the net, with multiple attacking players in solid form. When you factor in the form of Gallese, I find it unlikely that New York’s unbeaten away record survives the weekend.
Prediction: Orlando City ML (+140 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
I agree with the bookmakers on this one, as I expect a low-scoring match. New York loves to swarm the ball and slow down attacks, but their passing woes make it difficult to build up an attack once they regain possession. Their 109 shots are second-most in the league, but often are low-quality chances. Their xG away from home this season sits at just 1.11, versus a 1.44 rating in the Big Apple.
As for Orlando, they hold the seventh-best home xG tally at 1.55 per match. They have scored multiple goals just twice in their eight matches, and their fixtures averaging just 2.13 goals total. Additionally, just once in the last five matches for either club has the total gone past two goals. With each defense playing well, I like a 1-0 or 2-0 outcome in this fixture and will gladly take the under 2.5 goals at -128.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-128 at FanDuel)
Best bet
Orlando have been one of the best second-half sides in the league, securing most of their wins after the break. Six of their eight matches this season have seen the score level at the break, including all four of their home tilts. Similarly, the score has been tied up at halftime in four of New York’s seven matches this season. All 10 of their combined first-half draws have seen an exact 0-0 score line. While tempted to grab that exact score at +170, I’m going to go with a safer bet and take the first half draw at +100 as my best bet.
For a bonus best bet, I am quite high on a booking for Cristian Casseres Jr. The New York defender has seen a yellow card in four of their seven matches this season, including each of his last three starts, and was sent off against Hartford on Wednesday night. With FanDuel offering +230 at the moment, I love this prop if he starts the match on Sunday.
Prediction: First half draw (+100 at FanDuel)
