NASCAR returns to arguably its most famous track — Daytona International Speedway — for August 27th's Coke Zero Sugar 400.
While not as illustrious as the Daytona 500, this race will still play a pivotal role in the NASCAR Cup Series season's stretch run, as the final race before the playoffs.
As the last chance for certain drivers — most notably Chase Elliott after his early-season injury — to secure a playoff berth, the Coke Zero 400 odds will be hot betting targets this weekend, and as is typical on superspeedways, there's little consensus on favorites.
Let's break down the field and check out the best betting picks for NASCAR's regular-season finale.
Odds to win 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400
| Driver |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | +1,100 | +1,300 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| Joey Logano | +1,200 | +1,200 |
| William Byron | +1,400 | +1,800 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,400 | +1,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,400 | +1,400 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,800 | +1,500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1,800 | +2,000 |
| Ross Chastain | +2,000 | +2,500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +2,000 | +3,000 |
| Kyle Larson | +2,000 | +2,200 |
| Daniel Suarez | +2,000 | +3,000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +2,200 | +2,500 |
| Austin Dillon | +2,200 | +3,000 |
| Austin Cindric | +2,200 | +3,000 |
| Aric Almirola | +2,200 | +2,500 |
| Christopher Bell | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2,800 | +2,600 |
Odds as of August 22, 2023.
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Coke Zero Sugar 400 field
Superspeedways are generally higher-variance tracks, so it's not surprising to see the favorites at longer odds (over +1,000 as opposed to the typical +500 to +700 range), and very slim margins at the top. Such a flat tier of favorites — with seven drivers priced from +1,100 to +1,400 — is almost never seen outside of superspeedways.
Chase Elliott, priced as the DraftKings favorite, could be a misnomer. Outside of a couple runner-up finishes at Daytona, it isn't one of his stronger tracks. Superspeedways in general aren't an Elliott forte in the vein of road courses, and despite a slew of Top-5 finishes, he hasn't actually won a race this season. However, in the "win and you're in" era, a checkered flag might be Elliott's only route to a playoff berth, adding extra incentive.
Other consensus favorites among the crowded top tier include Joey Logano — who won this year's Duel, won on a like track in Atlanta, and finished second in the Daytona 500 — and Ryan Blaney, who won this race in 2021, then infamously went on an almost two-year cold streak. He hasn't finished better than ninth in any of the past 10 races.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 picks and predictions
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Coke Zero Sugar 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Joey Logano (+1,200)
These were among his worst tracks last year but his best in 2023. Logano was runner-up here in February and won this past spring in Atlanta. While he was 30th at Talladega and 17th in the return Atlanta trip, his car was much better than those two results entail. He’s scored the third-most points (138) on superspeedways this season with three Top-10 finishes in four tries and a series-leading 166 laps led.
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
Blaney won the summer Daytona race in 2021 and had two wins prior to that at Talladega. Blaney has finished eighth, seventh, second, and ninth in four superspeedway races this season, which has helped him score the most points (148) among these tracks.
Kyle Busch (+1,200)
He's worth a look. Coming into this race last year, he had finished 20th or worse in seven of his previous 10 Daytona starts. While he's also 0-for-18 in the Great American Race, he should have won this past February, did win in Talladega, and was 10th and fifth, respectively, in Atlanta. He’s scored the fifth most points (121) on superspeedways this season.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 sleepers
Brad Keselowski (+1,400)
You can never count him out on superspeedways. He was a last lap crash away from a the very least a Top-2 finish in the 2021 Daytona 500. Keselowski also led a lot of laps in the last two Daytona 500s (finishing ninth and 22nd). He was in the Top 2 with five laps remaining in February, was runner-up in Atlanta, fifth in Talladega, and sixth in his return to Atlanta. If not for the rain last month, Keselowski likely wins at Atlanta. He won a Duel in 2022 and also won this race in July 2016. Keselowski's led the second-most laps (110) and has accumulated the second-most points (143) on these tracks in 2023 too.
Chris Buescher (+1,800)
He has five Top-10 finishes in his last 12 Daytona starts. He was third in the 2020 Daytona 500 and ninth in the 400 that year. He crossed the finish line second in the 2021 400 before a penalty ultimately negated that. Buescher was leading with five to go in February and finished fourth. While he was only 35th and 15th in Atlanta and 13th in Talladega, I still like his chances. He’s led the third-most laps (76) among all drivers on these tracks this season and has the seventh-most points (117) scored.
Daniel Suarez (+2,000)
Coming into this year, Suarez has not had any Daytona success with his best result being 17th. His other finishes — with the exception of two — had all been outside the Top 20. He was seventh in the Daytona 500, ninth in Talladega, and runner-up in Atlanta 2, though.
Erik Jones (+3,500)
He won this race in 2018 and won the Clash in 2020. He also had a Top 5 going in the 2022 Daytona 500 before being caught up in that late crash. His last three superspeedway finishes are eighth, sixth, and 11th, respectively.
AJ Allmendinger (+4,500)
Allmendinger hates superspeedway racing, but he did finish sixth in the Daytona 500 and third in Atlanta. He’s had the 12th- most points scored on these tracks this season despite his general distaste for them.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 fades
Hendrick Motorsports
They're tied with the Wood Brothers for most Daytona wins in the NASCAR Cup Series at 15. Both have also won those 15 races with seven different drivers. However, HMS’ former dominance has since cooled.
Since 2016, they have just one win at this track. What’s bizarre is it’s not like they’ve shown up without speed as they’ve arguably had the fastest cars off the truck. It’s just that they’ve not had race-day speed to correlate with race-day handling. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott shared the front row of this race last year. It was actually the fourth straight HMS pole at Daytona and 12th in the last 16 tries on the high-banked 2.5-mile Florida superspeedway. The only four poles they didn’t win were Greg Biffle (July 2016), Joey Logano (July 2019), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (February 2020) and Kevin Harvick (Aug. 2020).
However, two of the four weren’t won on speed. Both Logano’s pole in 2019 and Harvick's in 2020 came on points.
Still, HMS failed to win by having just one victory in the last 15 Daytona races and that's counting February when they had another front-row sweep. Elliott led the most laps (31) last year but none of them even scored a Top 10.
Elliott (+1,100) was runner-up in the 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400, runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500, eighth in the 2021 400, and 10th in the 2021 Daytona 500. While he won two superspeedway races last year, he's been 38th, 12th, and 13th this year.
Larson (+2,000) has never won a superspeedway race and has just one Top 5 in 39 starts on them at that. He was 18th, 31st, 33rd and 36th on them this season.
Alex Bowman (+2,500) is always quick on superspeedways but has just one Top-5 finish at Daytona, which came in February's Daytona 500. He was 14th, 13th, and 26th in the other three superspeedway races.
William Byron (+1,400) is the only one I'd consider looking at. He has two Top-2 finishes in his last five Coke Zero Sugar 400 starts. His Daytona 500 starts? 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 38th, and 34th, respectively.
Denny Hamlin (+1,400)
He's never won the summer Daytona race and his four superspeedway finishes this season are 17th, sixth, 17th, and 14th.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2,000)
The last two Daytona sweeps came in 1982 and 2013 with Buddy Baker and Jimmie Johnson accomplishing that feat. I don’t see Stenhouse adding his name to that exclusive list on Saturday night. He was 17th, 15th, and 10th in his other three superspeedway starts this season.
Coke Zero Sugar 400 prop pick
Ford dominated the last two Februarys in taking the Top 3 spots in every practice, qualifying race, and the race itself in 2022 and 2023. They went 1-3-4-5-6-8-9 in Duel 1, 1-2-4-7 in Duel 2, and while they didn't win the 500, Ford did lead 122 of 212 laps in the process.
Ford then led 88 of 196 in Talladega. In the pair of Atlanta races, they led 221 of 260 in the first and 145 of 185 in the second. That works out to a whopping 576 of 853 (67.5%) of all laps led on these tracks by the blue ovals.
Pick: Ford outright win (+155 at DraftKings)
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Daytona International Speedway track analysis
While it’s a superspeedway, it differs from Talladega. It’s .16 miles shorter and not as wide. You can get three wide on this track but even that gets hairy. The race looks like Talladega in terms of a pack race with a similar strategy. It’s more about handling and drafting help rather than outright speed.
Winning at one of NASCAR’s most prestigious tracks, Daytona International Speedway, is a major accomplishment, too. So, it is not all that surprising that the Top 10 series-winningest drivers at Daytona are all also in the NASCAR Hall of Fame.
For the Coke Zero Sugar 400, three of the last six winners have earned their first career Cup victories. One of the other three was just his second.
For the Daytona 500, Denny Hamlin has won three of the last eight years but the other five winners were Austin Dillon (second career win), Kurt Busch (first career restrictor plate win), Michael McDowell (first career Cup win), Austin Cindric (first career Cup win) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (third career win).
Coke Zero Sugar 400 trends
- Only one Daytona pole winner has won here since 2011 (Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2016).
- None of the last 12 points-paying Daytona races were won by a series champion.
- There have been 13 different winners in the last 13 Coke Zero Sugar 400s.
