Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are staring at another disappointing playoff exit ahead of tonight's must-win Game 5 against the New York Knicks.
Jalen Brunson’s 47-point masterpiece on Sunday tilted the series firmly in the Knicks’ favor, and the hosts are favorites again as my 76ers vs. Knicks predictions preview this April 30 matchup.
The 76ers almost snatched Game 2 in New York, but they might be running on fumes, particularly after Embiid missed the shootaround today. For a closer look at this evening's showdown, check out my NBA picks.
76ers vs Knicks predictions
My best bet
OG Anunoby Over 20.5 points + rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
It was unquestionably the Jalen Brunson show in Game 4 but you can’t gloss over OG Anunoby’s contributions in a marathon 47-minute effort. Anunoby guarded Joel Embiid for most of the fourth quarter and delivered 16 points and 14 rebounds to help get the Knicks over the line.
That was OG’s best game of the series so far, and I’m picking him to carry that do-it-all form into Game 5, cashing the Over on his points + rebounds prop in the process.
I also expect Anunoby’s minutes to stay north of 40. Bojan Bogdanovic’s ankle injury gives Tom Thibodeau even fewer wing options — and it’s no secret that Thibs is willing to pile heavy workloads on his key men.
Anunoby’s pair of quiet offensive games to start the series don’t overly concern me. The Knicks aren’t going to run many plays for him, but there are mismatches against Philadelphia’s smaller guards that he can exploit in the post.
He’s shot 51% from the field in the series, and all the 76ers attention on Brunson should translate to open looks for Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo.
OG’s 14-rebound effort at the weekend was an outlier, but he’s had four boards in each of the other three games in this series, and New York will be counting on him on the glass again tonight, especially if Mitchell Robinson (questionable) can’t go.
76ers vs Knicks same-game parlay (SGP)
OG Anunoby Over 20.5 points + rebounds
Kyle Lowry Over 3.5 assists
Knicks moneyline
I’m continuing the ex-Toronto Raptors theme by taking the Over on Kyle Lowry’s assist total tonight. Lowry had seven dimes on Sunday, and he’s much happier in the facilitator role these days, despite pouring in 18 points in Game 1.
Nick Nurse knows he can trust Lowry in big spots, and that points to a key role in this elimination game. With Embiid questionable and Tyrese Maxey sure to be attracting a crowd, Lowry’s playmaking could be the X-factor as Philly tries to keep the series alive.
But I’m still riding with the Knicks. Though their starters logged monster minutes in Game 4, a fired-up MSG crowd and more Brunson magic feels like a formula for New York stamping its ticket to the second round.
At this stage, it seems like a safer bet to rely on the Knicks’ role players than on meaningful moments from Tobias Harris or Buddy Hield.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
76ers vs Knicks odds
76ers vs Knicks live odds
Get the latest 76ers vs Knicks NBA playoff odds for Game 5.
76ers vs Knicks opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +3.5 (-105) | New York -3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +145 | New York -175
- Over/Under: Over 203.5 (-110) | Under 203.5 (-110)
76ers vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Knicks snapped into playoff mode before the regular season ended, and it’s hard to argue with a 3.5-point line when the hosts have won eight of their last nine games.
- The 76ers continue to get cooked in the minutes that Embiid sits. They’re +34 in 159 minutes in this series with the reigning MVP on the court, and -38 in 33 minutes when he’s on the bench.
- Though New York has played some thrilling fourth quarters — the 4Q Over is 14-2 in the hosts’ last 16 outings — I prefer the Under here, even with the line at 203.5.
- That O/U number is largely a reaction to Sunday’s rockfight and the question marks over Embiid’s health.
- The Under is 7-3 in the teams’ last 10 meetings, and Philadelphia has been held to 104 points or fewer in three of the four games in this series.
76ers vs Knicks trend
The Knicks have hit the first half Under in 40 of their last 61 contests. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Knicks.
76ers vs Knicks game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 4-30-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
76ers vs Knicks latest injuries
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