Things have gone from bad to worse for the Philadelphia 76ers, who have now dropped four straight to fall to 1-6 and lost star guard Tyrese Maxey in the process.
Paul George and Philly will look to find the right combination on offense in its first game without Maxey when it enters into a menacing road matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday. My 76ers vs. Lakers predictions don’t feel very optimistic about the road team, however.
Let’s hand out some NBA picks for Friday, November 8.
76ers vs Lakers prediction
My best bet
Lakers -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This was about as bad as a matchup can get for the Philadelphia 76ers before Tyrese Maxey went down with an injury last game, and it’s going to grow even tougher without him.
Already playing without Joel Embiid, this Sixers frontcourt has been abysmal in allowing 38.8% of their opponents’ looks to come at the rim — the third-highest clip in the league — and compounding that by sitting 27th in rim defense according to Cleaning the Glass.
We know this is where the Los Angeles Lakers like to operate, even with their late-season blossom into a 3-point shooting team in 2023-24. L.A. has taken the fourth-highest percentage of shots at the rim in the NBA, converting on over 67% to sit just outside the Top 10.
Despite injury scares with Anthony Davis and Jaxson Hayes, it appears they’re set to suit up on Friday. So even with a reliable interior scorer in Rui Hachimura listed as questionable with an illness, the Lakers should still have the goods to exploit this matchup.
Offensively, it’s really hard to see where Philly goes from here. It will get Embiid back soon, once his league suspension is lifted, but until then this team will need to find a go-to scorer with Maxey and his 31.3% Usage Rate sidelined.
While Paul George is more than capable of playing the role, and should do so here, expectations surely have to be curbed considering he’s played just twice all year and has been eased back into action with limited minutes.
Even if George is able to flourish, the matchup on the other end of the court is equally as grim when you consider the Sixers have focused their offense on inside looks — something that won’t allow them to keep pace with the rate at which the Lakers should score.
L.A. has struggled a bit inside, but without the probing Maxey to score or pass into a basket on the drive, I’m expecting very little from Philly.
76ers vs Lakers same-game parlay
Lakers -7.5
Austin Reaves Over 16.5 points
Paul George Over 22.5 points
This matchup should be won and lost from inside the arc, so we’ll back a pair of players who should have plenty of opportunities to score at and around the rim for their respective teams.
I’m loving this matchup for Austin Reaves, who has shot 79% at the rim (according to Cleaning the Glass) even if he’s taken shots in that zone at a slightly below-average rate. He did rank in the 52nd percentile in shot frequency at the cup a year ago, and the Sixers have given up very few shots per game from downtown as their perimeter defense has let opposing wings drive right by them to the rim.
Meanwhile, as the Sixers continue to look for scoring inside — something they’ve done all year long — they should have no choice but to live and die with George in this one.
George has been used somewhat sparingly through two games, playing 27.6 minutes per game, but now that Philly is shorthanded I expect him to take on a significant amount of run. That’s good news if you choose to back him here, considering the Lakers rank 25th in defending the rim and 26th against the mid-range shot.
The veteran is a mid-range maestro, ranking in the top 20% of the league in shot frequency in that range and taking a whopping 48% of his shots from that zone through two games with his new team. He’s shot 41% or better on these looks for four straight years now, and is coming off a career season from mid-range where he shot 46% with the LA Clippers.
The volume really should be there for George, and the matchup is perfect.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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76ers vs Lakers odds
76ers vs Lakers live odds
76ers vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +8 | Los Angeles -8
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +290 | Los Angeles -370
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
76ers vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Lakers remained 8-point favorites for most of the early betting window before the line moved to 7.5 points early Friday, where it’s remained.
- While 57% of the bets have come in on the Lakers to cover, a firm 73% of the money is headed that way.
- The total began climbing rather quickly, reaching as high as 223.5, before it was quickly bet back down to 221. It’s since recovered, shooting back up to 223.
- The Over has accounted for 79% of the tickets and 85% of the handle.
76ers vs Lakers trend
The Lakers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Lakers.
How to watch 76ers vs Lakers
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
76ers vs Lakers latest injuries
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