Bucks vs 76ers Picks and Predictions: Defense is Name of the Game

It is always a thrill when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, two of the best bigs on the planet and perennial MVP candidates, face off on national television. With the Milwaukee Bucks winners in five of their last six head-to-head matchups against the Philadelphia 76ers, Embiid will be looking to steal a win and stamp his entry into this season’s MVP race Friday, November 18.

Our NBA betting picks and predictions for the Bucks vs. Sixers believe that with both teams locked in on defense and missing key offensive personnel, this game will be a low-scoring affair.

Bucks vs 76ers best odds

Bucks vs 76ers picks and predictions

While it couldn’t be said at the start of this year, Friday night’s game between the 76ers and the Bucks is a clash between two of the best defensive units in basketball. While both Philadelphia and Milwaukee are awash with offensive talent at full strength, these teams are collectively missing so many bodies that in order to win, they’ve leaned heavily towards defense-first alignments.

The Bucks have of course been missing their most important offensive initiator, Khris Middleton, for the entire season to date. Middleton and Giannis pick and rolls, where either player can function as the screener, are the bread and butter of Milwaukee's halfcourt offense. In Middleton’s absence, the Bucks relied heavily on Jrue Holiday for creation, but Holiday too has now been out with an ankle injury. 

And almost all the Bucks shooters who provide Giannis with the necessary spacing that makes his forays to the basket so devastating, are out too. In addition to Middleton and Holiday, Wes Mathews and Pat Connaughton are out for Friday’s game.

All of that leaves a heavy offensive burden on Giannis, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, and Jevon Carter. It’s why despite having Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are a Bottom-10 offense this season.

While the 76ers roster is dealing with much less disruption, it can’t be overstated how dramatic the impact of James Harden’s ongoing absence has been for Philly on both ends. Harden was easily its best offensive player until his injury, and it's seen a slow offensive start drop to Bottom-5 offense levels in his absence. 

But their reversal of fortune on the other side of the ball has been just as dramatic. The 76ers are the 16th-ranked offense and the fifth-ranked defense on the year, but since Harden’s injury on November 2nd, they’re playing at the level of the No. 1 defense and the 27th-ranked offense.

Embiid’s 59-point masterpiece against the Utah Jazz somewhat covered for the fact that the rest of the Sixers simply cannot score right now, and that’s not an exaggeration. Of the 27 points Philadelphia scored in the final frame against Utah on Sunday, Embiid scored 26 of them. It also signaled Embiid’s return to All-Defense form, as his seven blocks somehow undersell the amount of possessions he disrupted around the basket to seal the win.

The trends on both sides of this one all point to the Under as well. The Under is 4-1 in 76ers' last five overall while the Under is 5-1 in the Bucks' last six road games. The fact the total for this one has been precipitously dropping from its opening at 218 is not surprising once you dig into the numbers, but even at 212, I still like the Under as the best bet on the board.

My best bet: Under 212.5 (-110 at Betway)

Bucks vs 76ers spread analysis

While the difference in the standings between the 11-3 Milwaukee Bucks and the 7-7 Philadelphia 76ers is stark, the gap between the two in terms of level of play has narrowed in recent weeks. Milwaukee walks into Friday’s matchup with a +5.7 point differential, but a lower +3.3 mark since November 1.

The Sixers meanwhile are mostly treading water as their dramatic shifts in defense and offense balance each other out and are up from +2 to +2.1 over the same span.

Even missing so many critical rotation pieces, the Bucks are coached well, play hard, and have an identity they can fall back on when at a talent disadvantage. Oh, and having the best player on the planet helps too.

Giannis has struggled a bit recently from the field, perhaps due to a lingering knee injury that saw him miss time earlier in the season, but he and Lopez still pose a massive (pun sadly intended) lineup challenge for the 76ers. While Embiid is a suitable matchup for either Lopez or Giannis, there’s nobody else on the Sixers that can credibly match up with the Bucks’ frontcourt.

Despite all of Milwaukee’s missing personnel, it has been spread killers this season, going 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games overall. At Bucks +1.5, I have to defer to Milwaukee as the better overall team, even though Embiid has had monstrous outings over his last few games.

Bucks vs 76ers Over/Under analysis

Milwaukee’s offensive struggles are well established. It is a classic defense-to-offense team. It relies on defensive playmaking and generating turnovers to create transition scoring chances. Without those transition chances, its offense comes to a screeching halt. That’s how it plays even under the best of circumstances, but it’s even more extreme now that its best half-court initiators are Giannis and Jevon Carter.

Even given the Bucks' immense overall talent, they’re just missing too many of their offensive fulcrums, and there's only so much blood that can be squeezed from the stone that is the jumbo frontcourt pairing of Antetokounmpo and Brook. Middleton is their biggest loss as a pick-and-roll initiator but losing Jrue and most of their shooting makes them beyond predictable in the half court.

The Sixers, after starting the season as a defense-optional outfit that survived (or didn’t) on the scoring outbursts of James Harden, have flipped 180 degrees in his absence. Embiid has recovered from a poor start, and the Sixers have had the No. 1 defense since the calendar turned to November, just ahead of the third-ranked Bucks. 

But they’ve also seen a massive dropoff as an offensive team even with Embiid’s recent dominance. That switch, combined with Milwaukee’s own difficulties, makes the Under the play here.

Bucks vs 76ers betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last five overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. 76ers.

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