Bucks vs Bulls Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Puts Foot Down

After two unimpressive showings, the Milwaukee Bucks dominated the Chicago Bulls in Game 3 and will be seeking a commanding 3-1 series lead Sunday, April 24th.

Our NBA picks and predictions series today dives into how the defending champs turned things around and what NBA betting of value is to be had in Game 4 of Bucks vs. Bulls.

Bucks vs Bulls odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The line on this game has been stable at Milwaukee -4. The total has dropped ever so slightly from 219 to 218.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bucks vs Bulls predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -4 (-111)
• Prediction: Under 218.5 (-111)
• Best bet: Vucevic Over 2.5 made 3s (+120)

Predictions made on 4/24/2022 at 3:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bucks vs Bulls game info

• Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Bucks vs Bulls series odds

Bucks: -1,000
Bulls: +600

Bucks vs Bulls betting preview

Key injuries

Bucks: Khris Middleton (Out), George Hill (Out).
Bulls: Lonzo Ball (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Bulls.

Bucks vs Bulls picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

It seems like all the Bucks needed was a bit of a kick in the pants.

After losing All-Star Khris Middleton during their Game 2 loss to the Bulls, the Bucks got serious and finally played a 48-minute game up to their standard. Not that it took that long, as the Bucks established a 30-point lead in the first half and the Bulls never seriously threatened at any point afterward.

The Bucks’ level of play through two games had been a cause for concern, but it appears losing Middleton made them realize just how perilous the road to a repeat championship actually is. They then promptly reminded everyone in Game 3 precisely what they’re capable of when they’re clicking as a unit, and why most predicted this would be a lopsided series.

Getting Bobby Portis back was critical, as Milwaukee opted for a gigantic starting lineup featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez that Chicago had no answers for.

The Bulls don’t have the athletes or pick and roll attack to exploit the slower, plodding nature of that group, which is surely going to start again in Game 4. Unlike most giant lineups, this one takes nothing off the table on the perimeter, and it helped hold the Bulls to a playoff low 8.9% offensive rebounding rate.

Giannis playing small forward wreaked havoc on the offensive end, collapsing the defense, helping lead to five Grayson Allen threes. Jrue Holiday, after struggling with the long ball for the first two games, decided to put his head down and get to the basket to great success.

But even more than the Bucks’ offense, they beat the Bulls with their defense. The Bulls scored a playoff low 81 points, and it all stemmed from a two-part defensive game plan that the Bucks executed perfectly. Giannis matched up with Alex Caruso, covering him closely enough to avoid conceding wide-open shots, but still far enough off that he was able to disrupt any drives by DeRozan or LaVine inside the arc.

Jrue, meanwhile, stepped up his defense against DeMar, forcing him away from his preferred shooting spots from midrange, and only allowing him nine shots in 32 minutes. The Bucks showed much greater defensive discipline overall, only allowing 10 Chicago free throws the entire game.

The Bulls will play better. They’ll find ways to spring DeMar open for shots, and exploit Milwaukee’s commitment to strictly playing drop in the pick and roll, but the gulf between these two teams is as wide as it first appeared, and the Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

The Bulls simply don’t have the personnel to handle the Bucks when they’re locked in. Losing Middleton was the wake-up call they needed in this series, and I strongly favor the Bucks to cover again this afternoon.

Prediction: Bucks -4 (-111 at Betway)

Over/Under analysis

After looking shockingly competent through two games, the Bulls' defense is broken. Alex Caruso is a wonderful ballhawk, but there’s only so much he can do against the Greek Freak thundering toward him in transition. The Bulls wilted against the size of Milwaukee and struggled with their ability to stretch the floor from the four and five spots.

The Bulls might struggle to stop the Bucks, but their offense will do better than the pitiful 81-point outing in Game 3. Per ShotQuality, based on the looks that the Bulls generated in Game 3, they should have scored closer to 96 points, but that still would have kept the game well below the total for that contest. 

Now that the Bucks have turned up the heat on defense, I don’t foresee them letting the Bulls off the hook again. This game might be more competitive than Friday's, but this Over is still a reach.

Prediction: Under 218.5 (-111 at Betway)

Best bet

This jumbo version of the Milwaukee Bucks will exclusively play drop coverage, making them particularly vulnerable to the pick and pop of Nikola Vucevic.

Vucevic attempted nine 3-pointers on Friday, almost all of which were uncontested or lightly contested after receiving a pass at the top of the arc. Going 3-for-9 isn’t a great percentage, but it would be enough for his prop here, and that Game 3 mark is him underperforming his opportunity. 

Structurally the Bucks must concede this shot to continue their preferred scheme, so Vucevic will have ample opportunity to hit this prop on Monday.

Pick: Nikola Vucevic Over 2.5 made threes (+120)

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