It’s a banger of a Western Conference matchup this Sunday when the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets. The Rockets are trying to lock up the 2-seed in the West, while the Warriors are looking to ensure they stay out of the play-in fray.
Our Rockets vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 6 think this one will turn into a good, old-fashioned defensive rock-fight.
Rockets vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Under 226.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Golden State Warriors are one of the hottest teams in basketball since acquiring Jimmy Butler, and that extra, talented body has allowed Steve Kerr to finally put players in their right spot in the rotation rather than hoping they punch up.
The Dubs are 21-5 since Butler joined the lineup on February 8, tied for the second-most wins in that span with Boston, and trailing only OKC in total wins. That's NBA title contender space they’re occupying. They’re also 14-0 when trotting out a starting lineup with Steph Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody.
And they’re not doing this with a pulverizing offense, although they’re inside the Top 10 during this stretch, putting up 118.5 points per game. They’re doing a lot more on defense, tied for fourth in points allowed at 108.7 points per game.
The Houston Rockets have been on their own fun run, with just two losses over its last 16, moving them to second in the West. A win over the Dubs gets them, at the least, a tie for the second seed.
The Rockets are getting it done on both ends of the court during this stretch. They rank first in scoring defense since March 6 at 107.8 points per game while sitting third overall in offense, dropping a healthy 121.4 per contest with a crisp 38.1% clip from 3-point range.
They just knocked off the Thunder and put an end to their 11-game win streak, but the Warriors present more of a hurdle to them.
Golden State has dominated this head-to-head, as they entered the season with a 13-game win streak over the Rockets, while already taking three of out of four in this regular series.
Not many teams have beaten the Dubs lately, and Houston was one of those victims on February 13, losing 105-98.
I do like the Rockets to cover, but it’s hard to bet against this current Dubs run. I think the Under is a great compromise. The Under has hit in three straight matchups this season, and the only game that went Over needed OT.
Both teams are strong defensively, and we’re going to see their best in a crucial matchup inside the West’s Top 6.
Rockets vs Warriors same-game parlay
Under 226.5
Brandin Podziemski Over 14.5 points
Alperen Sengun Over 4.5 assists
Brandin Podziemski has found his niche inside the Warriors’ offense as a beneficiary of all the actions off of Curry. Butler hasn’t really demanded as much offensively, letting the second-year pro get cooking.
Podziemski has scored at least 26 points in three of his last four, and while he’s not that big a scorer, he’s taken at least 14 field goal attempts in six of the last nine games.
He should again find great scoring chances around the gravity of Curry.
Let’s wrap with the assist total for Alperen Sengun. He had just four against OKC, but he’s had five or more dimes in four of the previous six.
Sengun presents one of the few size mismatches Sunday, and I think the Rockets will be smart to use him as an offensive hub to get up good shots.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Rockets vs Warriors odds
Rockets vs Warriors live odds
Rockets vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Houston +4.5 | Golden State -4.5
- Moneyline: Houston +167 | Golden State -191
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Rockets vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- Golden State is 9-1-0 ATS vs. Houston in the last 10 games.
- The Rockets are 3-1-0 ATS in their last four overall.
- The Warriors have gone Under the total in three of the last four home games.
Rockets vs Warriors trend
Golden State has covered the spread in each of its last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Warriors.
How to watch Rockets vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 4-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Space City Network, NBCS Bay Area |
Rockets vs Warriors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
