Bucks vs Bulls Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Milwaukee Has to Prove Its Defense is Legit

In the game before the All-Star break, the Milwaukee Bucks laid an egg against a Memphis Grizzlies team manned mostly by G-League players. Doc Rivers went on another media tour, deflecting any personal blame for the team’s struggles. The situation had the makings of an all-time disaster.

Instead, the Bucks have come out of the break with a purpose and a renewed commitment to defense that has reinvigorated them. 

Milwaukee has won four straight in convincing fashion and will attempt to make it five in a row as it faces off against the Chicago Bulls on Friday, March 1. The Bulls, for their part, are coming off a thrilling double-overtime victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. 

My free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Bulls believe the NBA odds are too low on the scoring potential of this matchup.

Bucks vs Bulls odds

Bucks vs Bulls predictions

Are these new Milwaukee Bucks for real?

In their first four post-All-Star break victories, they have posted the No. 2 offense and the No. 2 defense for a cool +24.1 point differential. That mark is obviously the best in the league and unsustainably good, but just how predictive is it?

If you scrutinize the Bucks’ record since the All-Star break, they’ve played some pretty weak teams. They got a quality win against the Minnesota Timberwolves right off the bat, but the Wolves also just played terribly. If you watched that game, Anthony Edwards looked like he was still on vacation, and that had little to do with Milwaukee.

Since then, they’ve beaten the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Charlotte Hornets twice. While they took care of business and dominated those games, they’re not exactly measuring stick performances.

The Bucks held all three teams to below 100 points, the first such stretch they’ve done so this season. But again, the Hornets are the third-worst offense in the NBA, and the 76ers, without Embiid, are hovering around Bottom-5 territory.

To their credit, Milwaukee is clearly playing harder. It’s devouring all the low-hanging fruit left over from the Adrian Griffin era, including shoring up its transition defense. But will the Bucks’ effort in that area translate on the second night of a road back-to-back?

I don’t doubt that Milwaukee would maintain that discipline if it were playing another contending team, but I have yet to buy its defense as an 82-game proposition. I suspect, like most veteran teams, they’ll try to get by on what they do best, and that is still their offense, helmed by two of the NBA’s best in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.

The Chicago Bulls aren’t a contender, but they do show flashes of high-level play. Their recent wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Pelicans hint at a dynamic, deep, and well-rounded team lurking just below the surface. They also have some matchups that could cause pain for the Bucks’ conservative defensive posture.

Coby White is a legitimate pull-up threat in the pick-and-roll. If the Bucks give even 80% effort to get through screens, they’ll get punished for it. Nikola Vucevic is an unconventional big who would rather score in the midrange than get all the way to the rim where Giannis and Brook Lopez will be lurking as shot-blockers. Andre Drummond is a dominant offensive rebounder, an area that Lopez struggles.

The Bulls, in turn, also allow a lot of open threes. Lillard and Malik Beasley could feast on those, particularly if Alex Caruso, officially questionable, is out.

There are just a lot of ways for these teams to poke at each other’s weaknesses. With the early action also coming on the Under despite a low opening price, I like the Over at 221.5 as my best bet on Friday.

My best bet: Over 221.5 (-110 at bet365)

Bucks vs Bulls same-game parlay

Over 221.5

Nikola Vucevic Over 20.5 points

DeMar DeRozan Over 22.5 points

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+395 at DraftKings

Vucevic is a much-maligned player for a variety of reasons, but he puts points on the board. He does it a little differently (and less efficiently) than most 7-foot centers, but his shooting touch does provide value to the Bulls offense. He’s having a down year from the 3-point arc, but he’s shooting 50% from the midrange, where he takes about 45% of his shots per Cleaning the Glass.

That’s a useful attribute against the Bucks, who want to deny shots at the rim at all costs. They’ll concede the midrange because the math is in their favor, and Vuc will be there to capitalize on it. Vuc has only scored fewer than 21 points twice in his last 10 games.

Nikola’s spacing also makes life much easier for the true master of the midrange: DeMar DeRozan. 

DeRozan is having a bit of a down year but has put together a solid stretch lately. DeMar remains one of the league’s craftiest isolation scorers and foul-drawers, and he could feast on the Bucks’ perimeter defense with Khris Middleton out. 

DeRozan is averaging 27.1 points over his last 10 games on better than 60% true shooting.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bucks vs Bulls spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bucks opened as high as 4.5-point favorites, with some oddsmakers offering that as low as -3.5 at time of writing.

The Bulls are a tough team to figure out. They’ve obviously banged up beyond belief with the losses of Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, and Lonzo Ball. But they’ve done well on the margins with the likes of White, Drummond, Ayo Dosunmu, and newcomer Onuralp Bitim. They have some lineup versatility and can match Milwaukee size for size or play smaller and leverage Caruso’s ability to guard up.

Chicago also falls into offensive lulls and often fails to maximize many critical opportunities, leaving them prone to bad losses. To wit, the Detroit Pistons have nine wins this season and two have come against Chicago.

The Bucks are an older team but have done well against the spread in back-to-backs. Milwaukee is 9-6 against the spread with a rest disadvantage. 

But they’re not as strong on the road, where they are 12-15 ATS on the season.

The total for Bucks at Bulls opened at 223.5 and has fallen as low as 221.5 at some sportsbooks. That number is a testament to the new-look Bucks defense coming out of the break, but I’m skeptical it holds up on a back-to-back.

The Bucks don’t have elite defensive personnel outside of Giannis and Brook, and defenses always break at the weakest point. The way to make up for that is consistent effort, which is taxing both mentally and physically to maintain. Maybe the Bucks can do that for a playoff series or two, but I doubt it will last the remainder of the regular season.

The Bulls have an interesting offensive profile. While they aren’t as efficient as the New York Knicks, they’ve begun to embrace playing bigger as a way to win the possession battle the way the Knicks do.

Now that they’re leaning more into playing Vucevic and Drummond together, they’re doing a nice job packing the paint and dominating the boards. In their last game, the Bulls outrebounded the Cleveland Cavaliers 74-39. 

Beating the Bucks on the glass is one way they can shore up some of their shakier offensive tendencies, and oddsmakers have tended to undervalue Chicago’s offense when at a talent disadvantage. The Over is 9-4 when the Bulls are home underdogs this season.

Bucks vs Bulls betting trend to know

The Over is 9-4 when the Bulls are home underdogs this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Bulls.

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