After winning the season opener against the Philadelphia 76ers, the Milwaukee Bucks have dropped three straight games by double-digit points and sit at 1-3. The 2-3 Memphis Grizzlies are racked with injuries yet again and play host to a team desperate for a victory.
Neither Milwaukee nor Memphis have played strong defense this season, and my Bucks vs. Grizzlies predictions expect a scary amount of points to be scored in this Halloween showdown.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should take the Over on a modest point total on Thursday, October 31 with tip set for 8 p.m. ET at Memphis' FedEx Forum.
Bucks vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet
Over 226.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks defense through the first two weeks of the season is terrifying, surrendering the eighth-most points per game (119). Somehow, the Memphis Grizzlies defense has been even worse, as they are allowing the second-most points (122.3). Both teams rank in the Bottom 10 in defensive rating.
The defenses have been bad, but fortunately, both teams are scoring at a high clip, as Milwaukee averages the 13th-most points (114), and Memphis averages the fourth-most (120.3). The Bucks have hit the Over in two of four games, but the Grizzlies have hit that mark in four of five. Both Milwaukee and Memphis rank inside the Top 6 in pace, which means there should be plenty of extra possessions in this one.
For as awkwardly as Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have fit together at times, both are contributing heavily to the scoresheet on a nightly basis, with Dame grabbing 28 points a night and the Greek Freak tallying a touch more with 28.8.
The lax defense, high scoring, and fast pace can be thrown into the cauldron to create a spooky-good recipe for the Over tonight. Given all of those factors, the 226.5 point total is quite modest, and I’d be willing to bet it up to 229.5 without any hesitation.
Bucks vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Over 226.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 rebounds
Ja Morant Over 19.5 points
Memphis has been hammered on the glass this season, allowing the second-most rebounds to opponents. The Grizzlies’ biggest center is rookie Zach Edey, and he’s still adjusting to the NBA game. Outside of Edey, the Grizzlies’ center depth is shallow, and PF Jaren Jackson Jr. is far from an elite rebounder.
It’s no trick that Antetokounmpo has averaged 12 rebounds per game across the last seven seasons, and he’s sure to treat us to another stellar performance on the glass tonight. He’s averaging 11.8 boards per game this season and has hit the Over on this line twice.
"What’s this?" Jack Skellington famously asked this question when he discovered a new world, and Grizzlies fans are asking themselves the same after Wednesday’s loss to Brooklyn.
Marcus Smart — who was limited to just 20 games last season — suffered a right ankle injury and logged just six minutes. Desmond Bane — who only appeared in 42 games last season — suffered an oblique injury and finished with just 17 minutes.
With Memphis playing in the second half of a back-to-back set, it would be shocking if either player took the court. That should mean more usage for Ja Morant and more responsibilities on offense. He’s averaging 19 points per game this season and scored 20 or more points in two of four appearances. In a matchup where I’m expecting to hit the Over, I’ll happily take the Over on this points prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bucks vs Grizzlies odds
Bucks vs Grizzlies live odds
Bucks vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -5 (-110) | Memphis +5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -205 | Memphis +170
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 (-110) | Under 223.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee is just 1-3 straight up and 1-3 ATS to open the 2024-25 season.
- Memphis has won two of five games, but the Grizzlies sport a 1-4 record ATS.
- The Bucks rank 13th in points scored and have hit the Over in two of four matchups this season.
- The Grizzlies are Top 5 in most points scored and most points surrendered, and Memphis has unsurprisingly hit the Over in four of five games.
Bucks vs Grizzlies trend
This head-to-head series has been a bit lopsided, as the Grizzlies have won seven of the last 10 straight up. That includes five straight victories, and the last time Milwaukee beat Memphis was nearly three years ago on January 19, 2022. The Grizzlies have covered in eight of the last 10, including five in a row, and the teams have gone 5-4-1 to the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Bucks vs Grizzlies
| Location: | FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-31-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin, FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast Memphis |
Bucks vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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