The Milwaukee Bucks head on the road tonight to visit Trae Young and the slumping Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena.
While Young has played relatively well against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. this season, I’m expecting the visitors to keep him in check in my Bucks vs. Hawks predictions.
Keep reading for my NBA picks for Friday, February 7, ahead of this 7:30 p.m. ET tip.
Bucks vs Hawks prediction
My best bet
Trae Young Under 26.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Atlanta Hawks just traded away two key players in Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, signaling that Atlanta isn’t exactly trying to make a run at the playoffs.
Their franchise star, Trae Young, isn’t enjoying the best campaign as a scorer, either. The Oklahoma product is averaging his lowest amount of points since his rookie season (23.2 PPG) and shooting only 34.1% from three-point land.
While Young’s 11.5 assists are a career-best, he’s not always consistent when it comes to actually scoring the rock. Young’s total is likely quite high here because he did just score 32,34, and 34 across his last three outings.
However, prior to that, Ice Trae hit the Under by a mile in five straight games, hitting the 20-point mark just once during that span. When it comes to facing the Bucks, he’s averaged 26 points in two appearances this season.
The 26-year-old is currently dealing with an Achilles injury but is expected to suit up tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t the best teams at defending point guards, allowing 26.8 PPG. However, Young is averaging only 21.4 PPG at home. That number jumps up to 24.8 on the road.
I believe Milwaukee will contain Trae to a certain extent tonight, at least when it comes to his scoring production.
Bucks vs Hawks same-game parlay
Trae Young Under 26.5 points
Damian Lillard Over 3.5 made threes
Dyson Daniels Over 16.5 points
Damian Lillard has always been an elite three-point shooter. That’s once again the case this season, averaging 3.4 makes on 8.9 attempts for a 37.9% clip from downtown.
While Dame has hit the Over in triples just once in his last five games, he drained three in two of those contests.
However, I’m mainly eyeing this bet because Lillard has shot the lights out against Atlanta in 24-25. On December 14, he was 5 for 14 from long range. Not the best clip, but it easily cashed the Over. 10 days before that, the veteran was 5 for 9 from beyond the arc.
The Hawks are allowing 3.4 treys per game to point guards and sit 26th in the Association in three-point percentage allowed. With Giannis also questionable tonight, I expect Dame to cook from deep.
Dyson Daniels has stepped into a much larger role this season and absolutely flourished. After barely starting a game in the first two seasons of his career with NOLA, he’s played in 46 games for the Hawks, averaging 33.8 minutes per night and 13.8 PPG.
The Aussie is currently on a roll, cashing the Over in points in three consecutive outings. He’s scored 19, 19, and 23 points. Daniels averaged over 35 minutes per contest during that span.
The Bucks allow 22 PPG to shooting guards and Daniels is playing with a lot of confidence and getting heavy minutes. He’ll make his presence felt.
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Bucks vs Hawks odds
Bucks vs Hawks live odds
Bucks vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -5.5 (-110) | Atlanta +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee (-210) | Atlanta (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 238.5 (-115) | Under 238.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee is only 5-9-0 as an ATS road favorite.
- The Hawks thrive as an ATS home underdog, going 7-3.
- The Under has cashed in four of the last six meetings.
Bucks vs Hawks trend
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 40 of their last 67 games (+11.25 Units / 15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Hawks.
How to watch Bucks vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, 2-7-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin, FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast - Atlanta |
Bucks vs Hawks latest injuries
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