The Milwaukee Bucks (52-20) continue to sit atop the NBA, but they will need to ensure they take care of business in their final 10 games with the Celtics and Sixers still within striking distance of their coveted No. 1 seed.
They will travel on Friday night to face the Utah Jazz (35-37), who are in the middle of the most competitive and exciting part of the NBA’s playoff race. They current sit on the outside looking in, but just three games separate their 12th place in the West standings and the fourth seed.
Can Utah pick up a much-needed win in its attempt to make the Western Conference’s playoffs or will Milwaukee put its foot down and come one step closer to clinching the East’s top seed?
Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Bucks vs Jazz matchup on Friday, March 24th.
Bucks vs Jazz best odds
Bucks vs Jazz picks and predictions
The Milwaukee Bucks, simply put, have been an absolute force for nearly two months now. Since Giannis Antetokounmpo’s return back on January 23rd from an injury, the Bucks have rattled off a 23-3 record. And their performance in the win-loss column is backed by an equally impressive performance in the underlying metrics.
Prior to the last 26 games, they were a troubling above-average NBA team. Their net rating of +1.0 was good for 11th in the league, largely being pulled down by a 23rd-ranked offensive rating of 111.4. If anything, their defense (110.3, third) was the one thing keeping them afloat.
Since then, they have hit several next gears. They are, by a good margin, the best team according to net rating at a monstrous +9.0 (the best mark on the full season is Cleveland and Boston’s +5.7).
Their offensive rating has improved to 118.1, good for sixth during that time. Their defensive rating of 108.6 is not only the best mark during that span, but it has leaped them to the top spot of the season-long leaderboard as well.
And on Friday night, that buzzsaw will have a chance to cut through a Utah Jazz team desperate for wins. Utah finds itself 12th in the Western Conference standings, but winners of four of its last six after an untimely four-game losing streak.
After starting the season as the league’s biggest surprise, the Jazz cooled off hard to end December with a five-game losing streak and have not really recovered, managing to go exactly .500 since then.
Their net rating during that time (since January 5th) of -0.8 is below average (19th) and their league-average offense (15th) is hardly counteracting their below-average defense (21st). Their lone strength during that time (second in rebounding rate) is entirely offset by the Bucks’ second-best rebounding rate on the season.
In their prior matchup this season, the Jazz lost 123-97. And that was with Milwaukee without Giannis or Joe Ingles, who has been an offensive revelation for the Bucks.
My best bet: Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Bucks vs Jazz spread analysis
The spread opened with the Bucks as 9-point road favorites, and they have since moved to a juice -9.5.
Milwaukee is the second-best team against the spread this year, having gone 40-27-5 and possessing a 59.7% cover rate.
As road favorites, the Bucks have been even better: Their 15-5-2 record and 75.0% cover rate are the best in that split. They‘re also a league-best 17-8-2 (68.0%) ATS in cross-conference games.
As favorites of more than 9 points, they’ve gone just 5-10 against the spread.
The Jazz are 40-30-2 against the spread this season, good for the fourth-best cover rate of 57.1%.
As home underdogs, they’ve played to an incredible 10-1 record against the spread (90.9%). No team has played more games in that split while covering at a higher rate.
Utah has covered in six of its last seven, and has covered in all three of its previous games as underdogs of 9 or more points.
Bucks vs Jazz Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 232 and has since made a significant move up to 236.5.
The Bucks are 37-35 to the Under this year (51.4%), the ninth-highest rate of Unders on the year. On the road, they’ve played to the Under 65.7% of the time (23-12), the highest rate in the league.
In games against Western Conference teams, they’ve played a more balanced 14-13 to the Under. On totals of 236 or higher, they’ve gone 6-3 to the Over.
Utah has played 41-29-2 to the Over, a 58.6% rate that is second-highest on the year. The Jazz have gone 17-9-1 to the Over in games against the Eastern Conference, the highest rate of Overs for any Western Conference team (65.4%).
They have gone Over in six straight and 8-0-1 that way in their last nine games. On totals at or north of 236, they’ve gone an even 7-7 on totals.
Bucks vs Jazz betting trend to know
The Bucks are 15-5-2 (75.0%) against the spread as road favorites, they best cover rate this year in that split. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Jazz.
Bucks vs Jazz game info
| Location: | Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date: | Friday, March 24, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Wisconsin, ATTSN-RM |
