After dropping Game 2, the Milwaukee Bucks have lost home-court advantage in their first-round matchup as they travel to take on the Indiana Pacers this evening.
On top of still being without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton looks to be hobbled with a sprained ankle, and our Bucks vs. Pacers predictions are taking note.
Can the Pacers take advantage of a short-handed Bucks team and take the series lead? Or will Damian Lillard and the Bucks turn in a performance closer to Game 1 to help re-capture home-court advantage?
Continue reading for free NBA picks for the Game 3 matchup on Friday, April 26th.
Bucks vs Pacers predictions
My best bet
Pacers -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Game 2 was an ugly affair for the Bucks no matter which way you look at it. A 17-point loss at home as a 3-seed is a problem in itself, but on top of that, they didn't seem actually competitive at any point in the game at all.
Despite Damian Lillard putting up another otherworldly first half with 26 points on six 3-pointers made, the Bucks still trailed by four at half. And that was the same half in which Brook Lopez chipped in a whopping four 3-pointers himself.
Expecting that level of production every night is unrealistic on its own, and as we saw in Game 2, it's not like it brought the Bucks a sizable advantage on the scoreboard anyways. Some will point to Game 1 as a sign of what the Bucks are capable of, but even that game had its very explainable quirks.
For one, this Pacers team has not made the playoffs together, and playing your first game on the road against a recent champion is intimidating, and that shows up in the box score. The Pacers missed 30 (yes, thirty) 3-pointers and shot just 21% from three.
So, it makes sense that as they shook the nerves off in Game 2 and settled in, things looked much better. They shot 44.4% from three on Tuesday night, and now the series moves to their home court, where they've shot more comfortably this season (+2.4% at home).
And there's even more room for improvement on their end. Through the first two games, they've shot just 65.7% from the free-throw line. On the season, they've shot 82.1% at home.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Pacers -6
Pascal Siakam over 26.5 points
Aaron Nesmith over 11.5 points
Matchup-wise, the Bucks simply don't have a good answer for Pascal Siakam (36 and 37 points in each of the first two games), who has beaten Lopez with his speed and has beaten Bobby Portis with his size and finesse in the paint.
Another underpriced player is Aaron Nesmith, who has just 18 points through the first two games of the series. The playoffs are notoriously a great spot to back role players as a series moves towards their home court for the first time, as their underperformance on the road leads to underpricing, and their home-away splits tend to be a bit more pronounced.
Nesmith has eclipsed his 11.5-point total for Game 3 in 10 of his last 16 home games, while now having surpassed it just once in his last six road games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Get the latest Bucks vs Pacers NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +4 (-110) | Indiana -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +145 | Indiana -170
- Over/Under: Over 225 (-110) | Under 225 (-110)
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis.
- Milwaukee has gone an abysmal 36-47-1 against the spread this year, good for a 43.4% cover rate that was sixth-lowest on the year. That rate dipped even further to 40.0% on the road at a 16-24 record.
- And as a road underdog, they have been the league's worst, having gone just 3-8 against the spread in that split.
- The Bucks have gone nearly dead-even on totals this year, having gone 42-41-1 to the Under this year. Much like their spread performance, they have really drastic total results as a road underdog, having gone 9-2 to the Under in that split.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
The Pacers have gone 45-37-3 against the spread this year. Their 54.9% cover rate puts them at the fifth-best mark this season, and at home, they have gone 22-17-2 (56.4%). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
Bucks vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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