The Phoenix Suns will continue fighting for a spot in the postseason on Monday night as they host the ailing Milwaukee Bucks at PHX Arena.
Milwaukee comes into this game with a significantly depleted roster, which is why I’ll be taking Phoenix to cover in my Bucks vs. Suns predictions below.
Keep reading to see my complete breakdown of tonight’s matchup in my free NBA picks for Monday, March 24.
Bucks vs Suns prediction
My best bet: Suns -3 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t playing with their full lineup right now, as Damian Lillard (24.9 ppg) has missed the last two games with a calf injury. He’s sitting out again tonight, which means the pressure will be on Giannis Antetokounmpo to once again carry the offense for Milwaukee. The loss of Bobby Portis Jr. (13.7 ppg) to a suspension will also limit the number of options the Bucks can rely on tonight.
That alone wouldn’t be enough for me to pick against the Bucks tonight, as Giannis has already proven he can win games without much help. Instead, it’s what the Phoenix Suns have been doing as of late that has me leaning in Phoenix’s direction.
The Suns have won three straight and four of their last five, including a 123-112 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday. Phoenix has covered in eight of its last 10 games overall, including the last five times it has been listed as a favorite.
Phoenix may not be completely healthy, but it has its key stars in the lineup, with both Kevin Durant (26.6 ppg) and Devin Booker (25.8 ppg) playing well during the recent run. Bradley Beal (17.3 ppg) remains out with a hamstring issue, but it’s questionable how well he fits into this Suns lineup anyway, as we’ve seen this team succeed at least as well without him throughout his run in Phoenix.
The one concern we might have tonight is whether the Suns can put up enough points to outlast a vintage Antetokounmpo performance should he decide to take over the game, especially since Phoenix is one the worst defensive teams in the league this season.
But the Suns also rank eighth in the NBA in offensive rating (115.3), and can score in bunches thanks to the team’s 38.4% shooting percentage from the three-point line.
But more importantly, the Suns have been playing better defense as of late as well, allowing just 107 ppg over their last five contests. This would be a different game if Lillard were also in the lineup for Milwaukee, but we need to throw out the season-long records tonight and look at where these teams are today. Right now, Phoenix is the better team and should have its way at home.
Bucks vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns -2.5
Under 233.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 points
30% boost available
To go along with my best bet, I’m also backing the Under. The Bucks have hit the Under in each of their last four games, while the Suns have done the same in five of their last seven outings.
With my expectation of a lower-scoring game, I’m going to take Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo to come in Under 31.5 points tonight. Giannis has only hit that total in two of his last eight games overall and is averaging 27.7 ppg this month. Even with his increased usage of late, this number is a bit too high in what should be a relatively contained game on the offensive end.
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Bucks vs Suns odds
Bucks vs Suns live odds
Bucks vs Suns opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +3 | Phoenix -3
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +127 | Phoenix -144
- Over/Under: Over 226 | Under 226
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Bucks are 35-34-2 against the spread this season, while the Suns are 29-41-1 ATS on the year.
- Both teams have played well ATS lately; Milwaukee has covered in five of its last seven games, and Phoenix is 8-2 ATS in its last 10.
- The Over has a slight 36-33-2 edge in Suns games this season, with the Under holding the 37-34 advantage in Bucks games.
- Phoenix is playing to an average total of 230.5 ppg this season, with Milwaukee averaging a total of 226.6 ppg coming into tonight’s contest.
Bucks vs Suns trend
The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games and have gone 5-0 straight up in those contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns.
How to watch Bucks vs Suns
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Monday, 3-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Arizona's Family 3TV / Arizona's Family Sports, FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin |
Bucks vs Suns latest injuries
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