The Golden State Warriors need a fresh Steph Curry to have any shot at a playoff run, and that may mean a rest day for their star man as they face the Milwaukee Bucks tonight.
Steve Kerr suggested as much after last night’s loss to the depleted Denver Nuggets and, with both teams navigating injuries, my Bucks vs. Warriors predictions put a cap on the scoring at Chase Center.
Take a closer look at this March 18 battle with my NBA picks and betting angles.
Bucks vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Under 227.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The late-season NBA fatigue is real and it hangs over tonight’s matchup, with Steph Curry a strong candidate for a rest and both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard listed as probable despite nagging injuries.
That could give the defenses the upper hand here, and I like the Under on a total of 227.5.
The Golden State Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back set and looked out of sorts in a 114-105 loss to the Denver Nuggets yesterday. With an offense built around Curry, the Warriors’ scoring would surely take a step back if he sits here.
Even with Steph on the court, the Warriors have hit the 1H Under in 33 of their last 57 contests – and the Under is 5-3 in their last eight contests. Golden State has now slipped to 25th in the league in field goal percentage (45%).
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks are still searching for consistent scoring around Giannis and Lillard, and they’ve cashed the Team Total Under in 20 of their past 31 road games.
Kyle Kuzma’s scoring has dipped in Milwaukee’s last four outings, while Dame has fallen short of the 25-point mark in four of his past five contests.
The Bucks were stifled in Sunday’s 121-105 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder, and they’ll run into a savvy defense anchored by Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler III here. The Under feels like a value pick, even though both teams have a dead-even 34-34 O/U record this season.
Bucks vs Warriors same-game parlay
Under 227.5
Damian Lillard Over 2.5 three-pointers
Draymond Green Over 6.5 rebounds
It’s been a bumpy month for Lillard from 3-point range, with a mix of masterpieces and clunkers, but I like the Over on 2.5 made triples as he returns to the West Coast.
Despite dealing with a groin issue, Lillard went 6-for-12 from beyond the arc in the weekend victory over the Indiana Pacers, and he’s attempted eight or more 3-pointers in six of his nine contests so far in March. I’m buying into that volume.
I’m also taking a Draymond prop to wrap up my SGP. Though he’s dipped below this 6.5 rebounds line in each of his last four games, he’s still averaging 7.0 rpg this month – and this pick fits neatly alongside the Under here.
Golden State needs a spark after such a pedestrian effort last night against a Denver team missing Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, and I expect Green to bring the energy on the glass tonight to combat Milwaukee’s frontcourt length.
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Bucks vs Warriors odds
Bucks vs Warriors live odds
Bucks vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -3 (-110) | Golden State +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -150 | Golden State +125
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Warriors slipped from favorites to underdogs when the Curry speculation broke, despite their 21-14 home mark this season.
- Golden State has won three of the past four meetings between these teams and has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 matchups against the Bucks.
- The hosts are 6-3 this year in the games that Steph has missed.
- Milwaukee has covered the 1H spread in 35 of its last 59 games, but the visitors are 14-17 on their travels this season and they’ve lost four of their last six outings overall.
Bucks vs Warriors trend
Golden State has cashed the 4Q moneyline in 13 of its last 18 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Warriors.
How to watch Bucks vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Wisconsin, NBC Sports Bay Area |
Bucks vs Warriors latest injuries
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