Bulls vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Buy the Bad News Bulls

Coming off a blowout loss in the national spotlight, the Bulls have reason to hope for a quick rebound given the Celtics’ continued struggles. If Chicago is to wash out Friday night’s taste though, it will need to do so without its franchise cornerstone.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Bulls at the Celtics on January 15, with tip set for 8:30 ET.

Bulls vs Celtics odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Bulls opened as 2.5-point underdogs and have risen as high as +6.0 by the morning. The total opened at 220.5 on Friday evening before falling as low as 215.5 early Saturday morning. Totals from 215.0 to 216.0 are available on the market as the afternoon begins.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Bulls vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Bulls +6.0 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 215 (-110)
• Best bet: Bulls moneyline (+190)

Predictions made on 01/15/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Bulls vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:30p.m. ET
• TV: NBCS-BOS, NBCS-CHI

Bulls vs Celtics betting preview

Injuries

Bulls: Zach LaVine PG (Out), Lonzo Ball PG (Questionable), Alex Caruso SG (Probable).
Celtics: Marcus Smart PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five games playing on zero days rest. The Over is also 5-0 in the same situation for Boston. Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Celtics.

Bulls vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

With all due deference to LaVine, this handicapper has long believed in “Buy on bad news, sell on good,” and thus will blindly bet Chicago in this situation. Is LaVine worth 3.5 points to the spread?

The good news is, his Saturday morning MRI revealed no structural damage. There need not be any guilt about trying to profit off a long-term injury. LaVine should be expected back this season, and possibly even before the All-Star break, though his timeline is to be determined.

That early Friday night line still feels more accurate to this game than the six-point spread. Yes, Chicago is now without LaVine, arguably the straw that stirs its drink. But it’s only arguable. The Bulls still have DeMar DeRozan — playing with a higher usage rate in more minutes with more points and assists per game than LaVine across the last 10 games — as well as Nikola Vucevic. Losing LaVine hardly condemns this roster.

It does hurt, certainly, but the spread jumping 3.5 points overnight feels like an overreaction. That is the general ethos to “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” It is a situational chance to fade the public.

Furthermore, it is not as if Boston has been the definition of stability of late. The Celtics have gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10. If this line did jump a bit too far, Boston is a team in crisis that could be exposed to bettors in this situation.

Prediction: Bulls +6 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The aforementioned betting trend, that both these teams have hit the Overs in the back half of their last five back-to-backs, feels screwy on the surface. Your first instinct may be that such a streak was built last season, and only a game or two has been added this year. But no, all 10 instances have been this season. For the Bulls, three of those moments have been in the last three weeks.

Both these teams fade on defense when their legs start to waver. For Chicago, that wavering could be especially distinct, as this is its fourth game in five nights.

That has never slowed the Bulls’ offense, boasting the league’s fifth-best offensive rating to date, per statmuse.com.

And again, this total falling 5.5 points may be an overreaction to LaVine’s absence. It is not as if his 24.9 points per game will all not be scored. His 18.4 field goal attempts per game will go to others, beginning with DeRozan and Vucevic.

Buy on bad news. Sell on good.

Prediction: Over 215 (-110)

Best bet

This may be greedy, but it is the value play. If our theory is that the spread should be closer to +2.5 than it is to +6.0 — the Celtics are on a back-to-back, too, after all — then the inflated moneyline presents a ripe chance for profit.

Let’s say we think the line should be +4.0. We commonly call that a two-score game, but it would be just as accurate to call it a one-possession game. One Chicago steal and bucket the other way and suddenly the game could be tied in the fourth quarter.

At that point, would you rather have the +6.0 or the moneyline that could nearly double your money?

Boston is 5-5 in its last 10, including two wins in overtime against the dregs of the Eastern Conference. Some teams may have the mindset to capitalize on LaVine’s absence. At no point this season have the Celtics suggested they have that resolve.

The moneyline is leaning into the thinking of buy on bad news, sell on good. That approach has paid off in the long-term, though, so why flinch now?

Pick: Bulls moneyline (+190)

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