With the Brooklyn Nets on an incredible 12-game winning streak, the Boston Celtics have seen their lead in the Eastern Conference shrink to just one measly game. The Celtics will try to give themselves a little breathing room when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night in a matchup where they will be hefty 9-point betting chalk.
However, you can’t overlook the Thunder. Despite an uninspiring 15-21 straight up record, OKC has been one of the scrappiest teams in the NBA against the spread. Their 21-15 ATS record is fourth-best in the league.
Can the Thunder put on another shocking performance, or will the powerful C’s prove too much and cover the big number? I break it all down and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Thunder on January 3.
Celtics vs Thunder best odds
Celtics vs Thunder picks and predictions
The Celtics cooled off dramatically after a start that saw them going 21-5 to begin the year. Since then, the Celtics have been a much more mediocre 5-6.
A big reason for that is because of an offense that started the season on fire and is now cooling off a fair deal. In fact, Boston's offense now ranks 26th in offensive rating over this 11-game stretch.
However, the team is getting healthy and is basically at full strength, with only Robert Williams questionable for this matchup. The matchup with OKC may also just be what Boston needs to get back on track.
As noted, the Thunder are scrappy as hell. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is breaking out in a way where he looks like he is becoming one of the top players in the league. Meanwhile, Josh Giddey and Lou Dort are solid secondary players.
Unfortunately, that’s not enough firepower to keep up with the Celtics, as OKC ranks 24th in offensive rating. And while the Celtics are known for their offense, their defense isn’t too shabby either, coming in at seventh in defensive rating.
The theme is this game will be size and depth. The Thunder run a lot of small ball lineups and don’t run a bench anywhere near the quality of the Celtics. That will translate into maybe the Celtics' biggest edge in this matchup, which is on the glass.
Boston ranks in the middle of the pack when it comes to rebounding rate, but OKC is 26th and dead last in opponent rebounds per game.
The Celtics will outwork the Thunder on the boards, and in the end, the talent discrepancy will show itself as the game wears on. Lay the points with the C's tonight.
My best bet: Celtics -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Celtics vs Thunder spread analysis
The Celtics opened this matchup as 8.5-point favorites, which is where the line sits as of Tuesday afternoon.
I understand if you like OKC in this spot. I really do. The Thunder have been one of the best bets in the NBA all season long, while the Celtics are in a bit of a covering slump. Plus, it’s a lot of points.
The main issue for me here is that the Celtics just have a lot of different bodies they can throw at SGA in this matchup, including Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon.
If the Celtics are able to shut down Gilgeous-Alexander, things aren't going to go well for the Thunder. I see that happening tonight, so I’m laying the points.
Celtics vs Thunder Over/Under analysis
The total hit the board at 235.5, and early bettors jumped on the Under, moving the line down to 233.5. I would tend to agree with the early money.
While the Celtics' offense is starting to look like it did earlier in the season, it still isn’t quite there yet, and as noted, ranks 26th in offensive rating over the last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Thunder put in the effort on defense. The team ranks 11th in defensive rating and opponent field goal percentage, so they should ultimately do a decent job of slowing Boston down.
We already touched on how the Thunder offense will struggle if Gilgeous-Alexander can’t get going. So, with a number this high, I would lean toward the Under.
Celtics vs Thunder betting trend to know
Boston is 11-4 ATS when playing on one day of rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Thunder.
Celtics vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 3, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Boston, Bally Sports Oklahoma |
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