Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers will be in Phoenix on Tuesday to take on Devin Booker and the Phoenix Suns, and we have searched through the NBA odds to find you the best bet for this matchup.
We're in the final week of the NBA season, and this matchup between the Los Angeles Clippers and Phoenix Suns has significant meaning. With a Clippers win, they clinch the Pacific Division, but a Suns victory means they can still technically win the division. More importantly, the Suns need wins to avoid the Play-In Tournament.
This is the front end of a back-to-back, as the Suns and Clippers will play again in Los Angeles on Wednesday.
Find out which bet I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Clippers vs. Suns on Tuesday, April 9th.
Clippers vs Suns odds
Clippers vs Suns predictions
My best bet: Suns -3.5 (-110 at Caesars)
On Friday, the Los Angeles Clippers announced that Kawhi Leonard would miss a couple more games, so I don't expect to see Leonard take the floor for the Clippers on Tuesday against the Phoenix Suns. If Leonard were playing for the Clippers, I would take a different stance in this game because of the defensive matchups with the Suns.
On a normal night, Leonard is a big loss for the Clippers, but especially against the Suns. It puts the Clippers' defense in a bind because Leonard is typically the primary defender on Kevin Durant. Leonard on Durant is obviously crippling for the Suns' offense and not a matchup you want to attack, so the pressure falls more into the laps of Devin Booker and Bradley Beal.
The thing is, the Clippers also have perimeter defenders who can guard Booker and Beal in Paul George and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers present a very difficult matchup for the Suns, but the loss of Leonard changes everything. With Leonard out, it opens up more actions for Durant, but it also puts a weaker defender on Booker and Beal. Instead of George on Beal, he might have to slide over and guard Durant, so not only does Durant have an easier assignment than Leonard but so does Beal.
Both teams have a lot to play for on Tuesday, but I do think the Suns, who are in pure desperation mode, will get this victory at home. The Suns currently sit in the 6th spot in the Western Conference standings, and if they don't collect victories this final week, they could slide all the way down to the No. 9 spot fairly easily.
I also wouldn't be shocked at all if you see the Clippers be careful with their starters' minutes on Tuesday against the Suns, with the idea that Leonard returns on the back end of the back-to-back against the Suns on Wednesday and they make a push to win the Pacific Division at home.
The Suns are projected to win this game by roughly 4.5 points on Tuesday, which allows us to price the spread of Suns -3.5 at -116. It's only a small edge on the spread, but it's the side I would take on Tuesday in a pivotal game for the Suns.
Clippers vs Suns same-game parlay
Suns -3.5
Suns team total Over 115.5
Clippers team total Under 112.5
I like the Suns to cover the 3.5-point spread against the Clippers because I think the loss of Leonard will really hurt their ability to guard the Suns. That's why I'm laying the 3.5 with the Suns, but it's also why I like the Suns to go Over their team total of 115.5 points on Tuesday. The Suns will be able to exploit certain matchups in the Clippers' defense with Leonard out, something they weren't able to do in their previous meeting earlier this year when Leonard was the primary defender on Durant.
If the Suns can jump out to an early lead, which they are pretty good at (their struggles have been more in the fourth quarter), I do believe we could see the minutes for the Clippers' starters dialed back. If Tyronn Lue opts for more minutes from his bench on Tuesday, I don't see the Clippers getting Over the total of 112.5 because although Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook aren't starters, I also think their minutes would take a hit.
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Clippers vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis
The Suns opened as a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel, and we have seen that line move one point toward the Suns, making them a 3.5-point favorite. This movement in the market is a good sign for our bet and an indication that we have probably identified a small error in the pricing for this spread on Tuesday.
The total opened at 225.5 at FanDuel, and we have seen no movement on this number at FanDuel. While there hasn't been any movement on the opener at FanDuel, this total is not a consensus number across the board. You can also find some 224.5 and 225 totals out there in the market, so make sure to shop around before placing a bet.
Clippers vs Suns betting trend to know
The Phoenix Suns have covered the 3Q Spread in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+10.65 Units / 20% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Suns.
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Clippers vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 9, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | KTLA, Arizona's Family 3TV |
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