Clippers vs Thunder Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Where There's a J-Will

The legions of NBA fans who've spent the past few days complaining about how lame and uncompetitive the All-Star Game was get some catnip tonight as the league returns to actual play.

The Los Angeles Clippers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday night, in an ironic showdown of former franchise-altering trade partners who are now both fighting for the Western Conference's No. 1 seed. It's also a fascinating contrast of teambuilding ethos: The hastily-assembled, big-market "superteam" pitted against the shrewdly-cobbled, homegrown juggernaut in the making. 

Odds are this will be an intense game, with the regular-season stakes finally high. Speaking of NBA odds, let's break down this matchup and the associated markets, figuring out the best bet for this Thursday night throwdown.

Here are my free NBA picks for Clippers vs. Thunder on February 22.

Clippers vs Thunder odds

Clippers vs Thunder predictions

The books are predicting a shootout here, with a total set for 236 and most players' points props heavily shaded to the Over. And while I'm not entirely convinced that will generally be the case (these are two competent-to-good defensive teams, neither is a speed demon pace-wise, and this game could very much take on playoff-type intensity given what's on the line), I'm eyeing one such player prop market intently. 

Jalen Williams odds are prime for targeting, given his recent tear, growing confidence, and the likelihood of the Clippers focusing on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. J-Dub's points total sits at 19.5 for tonight, and given that books expect scoring, he should be rising to the occasion. 

For starters, Williams has aced this total in five of his past six games. The one in which he didn't was an outlier blowout loss to the Mavs in which he played just 27 minutes. Even given the paltry nine points he dropped in that game, he's still averaging 25 ppg this month, and has all the makings of a player making a "leap within a leap" as he charges up the Most Improved Player odds board. 

Williams is shooting a scalding 59% from the field this month, which is maybe a tad unsustainable, but not far above the efficiency we should expect from him. His most recent outing against LAC (January 16) saw him drop 25 points on just 14 shots; he's been averaging 16.5 FGA over his past six games.

Williams continues to assert himself as the Thunder's clear No. 2 scoring option behind SGA, in what was once an amorphous pecking order. Both Chet Holmgren and Josh Giddey's scoring has trended downward as the season's gone on, with J-Wil assuming a good deal of that usage bump.

The Clippers have one atomic weapon to deploy on defense in Kawhi Leonard, and his onus will be locking down Gilgeous-Alexander, after SGA smoked a mixture of Amir Coffey man, and blitz coverage when Leonard sat a previous matchup. The effects were noticeable when Leonard returned for the last meeting: SGA had 19 points on 6-for-16 shooting.

That leaves Williams to attack the rest of the Clippers, where he can very easily hunt switch mismatches against minus defenders like James Harden and Russell Westbrook. The Clippers are also very poor at help coverage in the midrange, either from a smaller big who isn't a shot deterrent or Ivica Zubac not removing himself from the rim enough. It's part of the reason the Clippers allow the league's fourth-best FG% from 15 to 19 feet, and are also below-average from 10-14 feet.

Like radon (shootout Toby Flenderson), Williams is a silent killer. He won't break your back by incomprehensibly weaving through your entire defense like Shai will before hitting an impossible-angle running bank. But when the rest of the team is trying to figure out what to do with SGA, J-Wil will step in and fill the gaps as effectively as possible. Not only is his consistency remarkable, but he looks like he could be leveling up again. 

And even better, unlike pretty much all of the points totals for tonight's name players, we're getting this Over relatively unjuiced. Ride the wave. 

My best bet: Jalen Williams Over 19.5 points (-106 at BetRivers)

Clippers vs Thunder same-game parlay

Jalen Williams Over 19.5 points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists

Thunder +4.5 alt-spread

Bonus bet promo available

+350 at DraftKings

In tune with Williams scoring more points, I'm banking on a big playmaking game from SGA. Being in Leonard's human straitjacket is no fun task, and Shai's a smart enough player to find open guys off the bounce — whether for three or in the dunker spot — if defenses collapse on him. He's been doing more of it lately anyway, averaging 7.8 apg in six February contests.

I'm also playing it a bit safe by taking the Thunder on an alt-spread play. OKC's form heading into the All-Star break worried me a little bit; they almost appeared to be hitting a "sustain your excellence" version of the Rookie Wall (yes, I'm aware most of their players aren't rookies, but the principle still applies for a team having its first great season.) It wouldn't surprise me if, even coming out of a week-long layoff, the Clippers' veterans are more prepared for this game, but the Thunder are too talented, well-coached, and hungry to just roll over in this matchup. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clippers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

Not surprisingly, the spread in this game is razor-thin, with major outlets trading OKC as a 1.5 or 1-point favorite at home. The Thunder are an NBA-second-best 33-20-1 against the spread this season, posting similar marks at home and as home favorites. 

The Clippers, while not with as linear an ascent, still have managed to go 29-24 ATS, though they're only 3-6 as the rare underdog. They've been getting the bulk of the action at most books, however, with OKC opening -2.5 widespread, and steadily falling a point. 

The total has been bet down considerably since opening at 239.5, echoing my points above about a playoff-type tempo to this game between two teams that could very feasibly see each other in the second round or Western Conference Finals. The overt value may be dried up at the 236.5 available as of Thursday morning, but that number's still falling at some books as of writing.

Covers community NBA picks

Clippers vs Thunder betting trend to know

Clippers have hit the moneyline in 28 of their past 35 games (+19.25 units/19% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Thunder.

Clippers vs Thunder game info

Clippers vs Thunder latest injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic