Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The Minnesota Timberwolves are out for blood after the Dallas Mavericks knocked them out of last year's playoffs.

While there will be some discussion tonight of Rudy Gobert’s defensive effectiveness against the likes of Dereck Lively II, the Minnesota focus will be on exacting revenge and that may be best served offensively in our Mavericks vs Timberwolves predictions. 

My NBA picks expect an early dose of retaliation, protecting against any closing-minutes collapse, long after tip at 7:30 ET at Target Center on Tuesday, October 29.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction

My best bet
Timberwolves 1H -3 (-108 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The NBA may take joy in diminishing a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. TNT’s panel may pride itself in not watching basketball games and then guffawing about that ignorance. But let’s make something clear: The Minnesota Timberwolves think Rudy Gobert is a player worthy of every reward he has received, and players like Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards take it personally when Gobert is slandered.

So when Dallas Mavericks forward Dereck Lively II spent his early September knocking Gobert, the Wolves noticed. Saying there was "zero" reason for Gobert to be on the court in the Western Conference Finals was heard, and it likely created two unfortunate realities for Dallas tonight.

First of all, Edwards will have reason to go at Lively. The fifth-year star has taken 57.1% of his field-goal attempts from beyond the arc through three games, a significant leap from last year’s 34.0%. This is clearly intentional, as someone finally got Edwards to understand that he is a good enough shooter to lean on the three over the mid-range jumper.

But he is still driving, particularly when it matters. Edwards is just as explosive as ever in the lane, and instinct says he will find an opportunity to challenge Lively.

Secondly, Conley and Edwards will make sure Gobert is involved in the offense. Again, the Minnesota locker room likes and respects Gobert, no matter what nonsense Charles Barkley hollers about after admitting he did not watch that night’s game.

Involving Gobert in the offense regularly leads to him emphasizing his defensive prowess. It very much is a psychological play of rewarding someone for their unnoticed work.

Combine Edwards showing early aggression with Gobert’s involvement on both ends of the court and the Timberwolves should enjoy tonight. Keeping this bet to the first half, though, protects against the ever-looming threat of Luka Doncic's fourth-quarter heroics.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)

Timberwolves 1H -3

Timberwolves TT Over 113.5

Rudy Gobert 12+ points

+395 at DraftKings

For all the foolish criticism lobbed at Gobert in last year’s playoffs, he averaged 11.8 points in the Western Conference Finals, clearing this prop in three of the five games. To start this season, he has cleared it in two of three.

Gobert’s scoring may actually increase this season, particularly as the Timberwolves offense finds its new groove with Julius Randle a fulcrum and the entire roster taking more 3-pointers than a year ago. That bettered spacing even helps Gobert, giving him more room to operate in search of lobs, something Randle is going to learn to look for in time.

Dallas’ defense as a whole worsened this offseason, losing Derrick Jones Jr. and replacing him with Klay Thompson. As much respect as Thompson’s career deserves, a backcourt of Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and Klay is incapable of stout defense in 2024, something Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo will gladly exploit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves odds

Mavericks vs Timberwolves live odds

Get the latest Mavericks vs Timberwolves NBA odds.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves opening odds

• Spread: Dallas +3.5 | Minnesota -3.5
• Moneyline: Dallas +140 | Minnesota -165
• Over/Under: Over 225.5 | Under 225.5

Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Timberwolves opened as mere 3.5-point home favorites on Monday afternoon, a number that quickly climbed to -4.5 and then -5.5 in the late night, toggling between those two latter numbers well into Tuesday.
• The climbing spread reflects, in some part, Dallas being on the second night of a back-to-back, and last night’s 110-102 win vs. Utah needing some genuine effort.
• Both Doncic and Irving played more than 33 minutes last night.
• This total opened at 225.5 and fell on Monday night, reaching 223.5 and then 222.5 before sunrise, only to tick further down to 221.5 on Tuesday morning.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves trend

Dallas is 0-3 against the spread in first halves this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

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