Clippers vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Rested Starters Give Golden State Needed Edge

Tonight's NBA slate features a contest between two of the championship contenders hailing from the Pacific Division in the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors. 

The Clippers have been on a bit of a roll recently but were dealt a serious blow when it was announced that both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard would be unavailable against the Dubs. Golden State is still trying to find consistency outside of its starting lineup, but come in fresh, healthy, and remain a dominant 7-1 at home on the season.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Clippers vs. Warriors determine whether or not Golden State’s talent and rest advantage will simply be too much for LA to overcome.

Clippers vs Warriors best odds

Clippers vs Warriors picks and predictions

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. The Warriors' starters continue to dominate while their bench is getting mercilessly blown off the court. The starting lineup featuring Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney is a ridiculous +26.9 this season in 431 minutes. No other team has a lineup that strong that has played anywhere near as many minutes together, which is why it’s so galling to see them sitting at 11th in the Western Conference at just 8-10.

The hope coming into the year was that players like Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, James Wiseman, and Jonathan Kuminga would grow into the gaps left by the offseason losses of Otto Porter Jr. and Gay Payton II. Failing that, the hope was that they’d get enough from smart signings like Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green. 

But no player outside of the Warriors' starters has managed to be even net-neutral, let alone a positive player. In terms of Cleaning the Glass' efficiency differential, most of them have been downright disasters. 

Poole, at -24.2 in 500 minutes, has to be the biggest shock. He’s shooting worse from everywhere on the court, his turnovers are up, and he’s still a sieve on the defensive end. So it was probably a relief to see him break out against the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday even if it was in a losing effort.

In that game, in which the Warriors' best players sat out, the Pelicans thrashed the Dubs' bench rotation to the tune of a 45-point victory, the largest margin of victory on the season. If Wednesday’s game against the Clippers was to be decided by depth rather than top-end talent, the Clippers would be favored by a mile. 

But with both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard out for tonight’s action and the Warriors' Top 5 fresh and rested at home, this should be a get-right game for Golden State. The Clippers have made steady progress towards digging themselves out of their Bottom-5 offensive rating recently, but it’s asking a lot of the Reggie Jacksons of the world to bail LA out of this one against the likes of Curry.

The Clippers are getting a lot of action at this number because they’ve fared better against the spread than the Warriors this season, but that doesn’t hold much water when they’re missing George. The Warriors playing in their own barn have also proven to be just as deadly as the Warriors of old, it’s just on the road where their play has been truly puzzling.

My best bet: Warriors -8.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Clippers vs Warriors spread analysis

Golden State sat its starters on Monday against the Pelicans, so the core unit comes into this game having not played since Sunday’s victory over the Houston Rockets. That’s two full days of rest for Steph, Klay, Draymond, and Wiggins. 

Looney, the Warriors' fifth starter, only played a nominal five minutes on Monday, so he should also be on fresh legs. With an older team like the Warriors, who have played deep into the playoffs season after season, the impact of getting two days off to rest can’t be overstated.

The Clippers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, but they benefited heavily from a soft schedule that included games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Rockets, and a pair vs. the tanktastic San Antonio Spurs. They’ve seen encouraging play by two key cogs in the rotation in Norman Powell and Jackson, but to expect their continued success against the Warriors starters at the Chase Center is a bit much to ask.

Clippers vs Warriors Over/Under analysis

It was a toss-up between the Warriors' spread and the Under for my best bet tonight, as 222.5 seems entirely too generous given where these teams are. The Clippers have quietly been the NBA’s best defense for a few weeks now and are edging towards unseating the indomitable Milwaukee Bucks for the No. 1 spot on the season.

Like another wing-heavy team in the Toronto Raptors, they can throw out so many different looks and play aggressively on the perimeter. But unlike the Raptors, they can switch when they need to, playing a more traditional drop scheme with Ivica Zubac manning the middle. They’re in the Top 10 at limiting shots at the rim and the Top 5 at opponent shooting percentage when they do manage to get there. 

And even though they’ve shown signs of growth in fits and spurts recently, they’re still an abysmal offense.  All of that has contributed to the Under cashing in 14 of the Clippers' 18 games.

The Warriors dynasty was, of course, built on defense, even if the Splash Brothers typically grabbed the headlines for their offensive exploits. Their overall defensive numbers have plummeted this season, but that’s largely been when they have to turn to their bench players or when they’ve been on the road. The Under is 4-0 in the Warriors' last four games at Chase Center.

With a matchup against a fellow Western Conference hopeful that might have seeding implications down the line, I’m betting Steve Kerr rides Steph and the starters heavily on Wednesday leading to a low-scoring affair.

Clippers vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in the Warriors' last four home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Warriors.

Clippers vs Warriors game info

Clippers vs Warriors key injuries

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