Depending on your appetite for action, our NBA picks and predictions have a flavor for everyone.
For those looking for a quick-hitting, nail-biting bet, NBA “first basket” odds provide an intense sweat in the opening seconds.
The process is pretty cut and dry: pick which player is going to score the first bucket of the game.
This market offers lofty returns due to the unpredictability and one-off outcome, so you’ll only want to risk modest money on these odds. But that doesn’t mean you’re going in blind.
I dissect the NBA playoff odds for Thursday's three playoff tilts and give my best NBA first-basket props which players will hit the scoreboard first on April 25.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic
First basket pick: Donovan Mitchell (+500 at BetMGM)
Let’s not get cute here. The Cleveland Cavaliers superstar scorer has struck first in more than 26% of his starts this season, according to BettingPros, including opening scoring against the Orlando Magic in Game 2.
Not only is Donovan Mitchell a quick starter, scoring his team’s opening points in 47 of 57 starts, but he has the best jump-ball man in the business in Jared Allen giving Cleveland the first possession in 74% of its games (Cavs are 1-1 on opening tips this series).
New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers
First basket pick: Jalen Brunson (+700 at FanDuel)
The New York Knicks won the opening tip in each of the first two games vs. the Philadelphia 76ers, thanks to 7-foot center Isaiah Hartenstein and athletic forward OG Anunoby (as well as Joel Embiid’s wonky knee). That instantly offers extra pop on New York to score the opening bucket, considering the first two faves are Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.
Jalen Bruson is the No. 1 gun for the Knicks, attempting the first shot almost 27% of the time and tallying the game’s first bucket at a 16.5% clip. Put Brunson in enemy territory and he doesn’t shrink, scoring the first basket in 22.5% of his road starts. The former Villanova star will be right at home in Philly tonight.
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Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Lakers
First basket pick: D’Angelo Russell (+1,100 at bet365)
There could be a window for a bigger return in the final game on the board Thursday night. The Denver Nuggets have won the opening tip in both games, but the Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers are tight in terms of jump-ball win rate (59.5% vs. 54.8%). Should Los Angeles get the opening possession or a stop in the initial seconds, D'Angelo Russell is a live option to score the opening basket. He’s got the hot hand, coming off a sizzling 7-for-11 night beyond the arc in Game 2.
On a roster with LeBron James and Anthony Davis drawing touches, Russel has attempted the first shot of the game in almost 13% of his outings. That rate balloons to nearly 18% at home. D-Lo is tops on the team in first buckets in home games (12.8%) and has notched the Lakers’ first points in 24 of his 34 starts inside Crypto.com Arena this season.
