Grizzlies vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Harris Steps Into Primary Role

Two teams stripped down to the chassis by injury meet tonight when the Philadelphia 76ers host the Memphis Grizzlies as relatively safe NBA odds favorites. 

Philadelphia, already without former MVP odds favorite Joel Embiid and spot-starter DeAnthony Melton, will also be without MIP odds runaway Tyrese Maxey — creating a solid betting angle for tonight's matchup.

Memphis began its season by promptly nose-diving off the biggest injury tree in the forest, hitting every branch possible on the way down. 

Find out how I'm betting this game with my Grizzlies vs. 76ers free NBA picks for Wednesday, March 6.

Grizzlies vs 76ers odds

Grizzlies vs 76ers predictions

Both these teams are going to be shells of themselves tonight. The 76ers, down their best two players and driving forces on offense. The Grizzlies, down just about everybody — Luke Kennard is starting at point guard.

While this doesn't make for as compelling a basketball matchup, it creates value in the form of Tobias Harris odds, as he's going to have the greenest of green lights for the Sixers tonight. 

We're seeing his total traded at 20.5, relatively unjuiced for an Over wager, which seems depressed to me for a couple of reasons. First, and most importantly, Harris spent most of February mired in a shooting slump. He averaged just 14.8 ppg on 42.6% shooting, and it got particularly ugly towards the end, so the recency bias is strong. This became somewhat of a headline, mostly because the Sixers were losing (which probably had more to do with their MVP candidate getting injured, but, you know, semantics).

There's absolutely no reason to assume that pattern will stick for Harris, who's averaging 25.7 ppg on almost 60% shooting in three March games (two of which with Maxey) and is generally one of the NBA's most consistent and efficient scorers when given the opportunity.

Opportunity is something he'll have barrels of tonight with Maxey entering concussion protocol. Maxey ran up a 30.7% usage rate in February; equating to a Top-10 rate this season. Harris figures to see the lion's share of those vacated looks, less erratic than Kelly Oubre Jr., and better at creating his own looks than Buddy Hield. 

Making matters better for Harris is the potential absence of Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies' defensive stalwart, who hasn't played in any of their three March games, still listed as questionable for tonight. Memphis could opt to keep Jackson out in a covert tank, especially now with Toronto (two games ahead) losing Scottie Barnes for weeks, and likely to fall in the standings. 

Reigning DPOY Jackson is the only thing even closely resembling a rotation-level rim protector left on this injury-ravaged roster: the likes of Santi Aldama and Lamar Stevens aren't going to deter any sort of penetration. 

For the season, the Grizzlies are also allowing a Bottom-10 conversion rate from beyond the arc, so they're not going to be particularly adept at stopping the long ball either. While I have to give these cubs credit for effort where it's due — No. 10 in defensive rating over the past 10 games — this is a spot where Harris should see 20+ attempts after Oubre took the most shots last night, and the 76ers lost to the despondent Nets.

Look for Nick Nurse to get back to the closest thing he has to bread and butter tonight, as the Sixers desperately need every win they can get. 

My best bet: Tobias Harris Over 20.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Grizzlies vs 76ers same-game parlay

Tobias Harris Over 20.5 points

Buddy Hield 3+ threes made

+204 at FanDuel

In addition to Harris' points Over, we're tabbing Hield to hit three or more 3-pointers, something he's done in nine of 11 games as a Sixer, despite, again, playing the bulk of those minutes with Maxey and his huge usage. 

The extra shots should more than help offset the slow pace this game is likely to be played at, and while I don't feel confident adding a side or total pick to this SGP with JJJ's status still iffy for the Grizzlies, I also don't think a low score and Harris/Hield clearing these totals are mutually exclusive. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grizzlies vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened this spread in the 5-point range, and while there was little initial movement, public money has slowly pushed to a steady mark of 76ers -6, with some books seeing buyback after a move to -6.5. 

The uncertain status of Jackson — by far Memphis' best active player — makes this a tricky spread to try and navigate, especially the with plucky Grizzlies at 6-3 ATS in their last nine games: seemingly not ready to roll over and die just yet. Covers Consensus, however, seems fairly confident, with 74% of bettors backing the Sixers.

We're seeing a total of 211.5 shaded slightly to the Under, which makes sense seeing as both offenses will be without the bulk of their artillery, and neither have been playing at a fast pace of late. The total opened anywhere between 210.5 and 214, pinballing between rogue numbers before settling at a consensus as of mid Wednesday morning. 

Despite its defensive ethos and depleted rotation, it's worth noting Memphis has been printing against low totals lately, going 8-4-1 to the Over in its past 13, after a stretch of six Unders in seven games to start February. 

Grizzlies vs 76ers betting trend to know

The Grizzlies have only hit the team total Over in 29 of their last 77 games (-25.95 units/-29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. 76ers.

Grizzlies vs 76ers game info

Grizzlies vs 76ers latest injuries

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