Grizzlies vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Young's Murky Status Makes Backing Hawks Tough

The Atlanta Hawks have a fairly safe cushion hanging onto the East's final play-in spot, and they'll look to maintain that breathing room when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night. 

Memphis comes in having won four straight and will aim to put a little more distance between itself and Golden State, who is currently a game back for the West's No. 2 seed. 

Find out who can muster the betting edge for tonight's matchup with our NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Hawks on March 18. 

Grizzlies vs Hawks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened at Grizzlies -2.5 in most spots, was quickly bet up to -3.5, and with news that Ja Morant is on track to play (while Trae Young might not), began to rise to the -5.5 range, with some books moving to -6, and even -6.5 as of Friday morning. That total opened at 236 or 235.5, now sitting between 236.5 and 237.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Hawks predictions

• Prediction: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 237.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/18/2022 at 9:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Hawks game info

• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Friday, March 18, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBATV

Grizzlies vs Hawks betting preview

Key injuries

Grizzlies: Ja Morant PG (Questionable).
Hawks: Trae Young PG (Questionable), John Collins PF (Out), Danilo Gallinari PF (Questionable). 
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Grizzlies are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Hawks.

Grizzlies vs Hawks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The most crucial variable governing this spread is obviously the status of each side's star point guard. 

Although he's listed as questionable, Ja Morant went through practice yesterday and is expected to play Friday, while Trae Young surfaced on the injury report late Thursday with a left quad bruise, potentially leaving him in suits. 

The difference is that, even without Morant, the Grizzlies have proven themselves a deep and capable two-way team, while the Hawks without Young are spread too thin on offense, compounding their existing deep struggles on D. 

Atlanta's the NBA's 27th-ranked defense over the course of the season, a mark that hasn't got much better of late at 23rd in its last 10 games. It's a terrible indicator against Memphis, who sports a Top-5 offense and enough capable gunners (don't forget, now-healthy Dillon Brooks has missed two-thirds of this season) to punish an overmatched Hawks D.

De'Andre Hunter has shown he can contain Morant in past matchups, but "contain Morant" is a very relative term these days, and the Grizzlies can own the Hawks just about everywhere else if Young sits. 

Even if Young plays, Memphis can counter by sticking the even-more-pesky Brooks on him, while still marking secondary attackers like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, and Hunter with defenders ranging from above-average to elite. The Grizzlies' seventh-ranked defense will meet Atlanta with resistance either way, which is what should tilt this matchup. 

Atlanta has few saving graces, and even those aren't infallible. They turn the ball over less than any team in the NBA, meaning fewer of the fast-break opportunities Memphis feasts on. But Young's absence would mean a serious strain on ball movement and shot creation, possibly leading to more TOs. And while Clint Capela is still a strong rim protector when the Grizzlies inevitably attack the hoop, he's shown regression on the defensive end this season, and Morant & Co. don't scare easily. 

Memphis is a confident, almost cocky, precocious team that doesn't let up. The Hawks have mostly sucked this season and could be missing their two best players. This spread seems reasonable even if a hobbled Young suits up, so any chance of him sitting makes it pretty safe to tab the Grizz at -5.5.

Prediction: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This total has been bet up a bit since opening, and with how high it's risen, and now Young's status complicating things, we're not huge on it either way. But, now creeping into the high 230s, we feel it's more prudent to back the Under, even with the potential for two-way fireworks. 

First, we doubt Young plays. The Hawks are virtual locks for the play-in, holding a 4.5-game cushion over the continually-imploding Wizards with 13 games left. Keeping Trae fresh for the games that matter will be their priority. 

This means Atlanta will have to be far more deliberate in the halfcourt, and while Bogdan Bogdanovic is a dangerous scorer/distributor in his own right, he's not the type who can be guaranteed to prop up a team that has to win games on offense, let alone against one of the NBA's best two-way teams. 

This game's script and tempo thus become far less liable to run up the total, one that ATL is 3-7 O/U against in its last 10, while the Grizzlies are just 2-8 in that same span.

Prediction: Under 237.5 (-110)

Best bet

Sometimes it's best not to overthink, especially with Young's possible absence tying up what could be some appealing player prop markets. 

The Hawks are an awful defensive team that flat-out tries to outscore opponents. But they might have to fight an uphill battle tonight against the NBA's second-best team — and an elite offense in its own right — without their top two scorers, including one of the most dynamic scorer/distributors in the league.

It's not a recipe for success, especially when the Grizzlies are an absurd 23-11 ATS on the road. Like we said above, this spread seems fair if Young is playing. Without him, Memphis should have no trouble putting this one to bed. 

Pick: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)

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