Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: AD Mauls Memphis

It’s showtime at Crypto.com Arena tonight as LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers look to close out the Memphis Grizzlies and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

The Lakers hold a 3-2 series lead but the effects of needing overtime to clinch Game 4 were clear on Wednesday in a flat performance on the road in Memphis. 

It’s win-or-go-home mode again for the Grizzlies tonight, and Memphis has lost all four road meetings against the Lakers this year — and will have to end that streak to save its playoff hopes.

Get the lowdown on this high-stakes showdown with our free Grizzlies vs. Lakers NBA picks and predictions for Friday, April 28.

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 best odds

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 picks and predictions

While Anthony Davis has been a consistent menace defensively in this series, his scoring has been all over the map. Davis has passed the 30-point mark twice, including a 14-for-23 effort in Game 5, but he also served up relative duds offensively in Games 2 and 4, with a combined 25 points.

Still, with a chance to send the Grizzlies home on the Lakers’ home floor, I see Davis having a monster night — and the hosts will need him to be assertive as a scorer to reduce the wear and tear on James.

Jaren Jackson Jr., this season’s Defensive Player of the Year, has made Davis work for every point in this series, but the L.A. big man can score in so many ways and he should get chances on the offensive glass when the Memphis defense rotates to protect the rim.

For the most part, foul trouble hasn’t been a major storyline, but if Jackson Jr. has to head to the bench for any extended period, the Grizzlies have limited options against Davis, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both out. That’s another angle that could swing in Davis’ favor.

With Ja Morant attacking relentlessly and Desmond Bane on a hot streak, I expect the Lakers to try to slow the pace and set up paint touches for Davis. This prop is a few points lower than I expected it to be, and I’m taking these odds for Davis to power the L.A. offense.

My best bet: Anthony Davis Over 24.5 points (-107)

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 spread analysis

The Lakers start as 4.5-point favorites tonight as try to book their place in the Western Conference semifinals, and that’s a clear expectation that we’ll see a sharper LeBron James performance.

The numbers paint a bleak picture for the Grizzlies. Memphis has failed to cover the spread in its last four games after an ATS win, and the visitors are 0-6 ATS in their last six outings after a SU win. They’re also 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their six contests after an ATS loss.

Even so, the Grizzlies threw some haymakers in L.A. in Game 4 and looked more comfortable with the matchup. Beyond their disastrous start to Game 3, trailing 35-9 after the first quarter, they’ve held their own at Crypto.com Arena.

Memphis has also unlocked more productive lineups by cutting back the minutes for Dillon Brooks (8-for-37 from 3-point range in this series) and playing floor-spacer Luke Kennard. That weakens the visitors’ defense, but Jackson Jr. and Xavier Tillman can take on the key assignments at that end of the floor and Kennard changes their ceiling offensively, assuming he shrugs off a shoulder issue.

Grizzlies vs Lakers Game 6 Over/Under analysis

The scoring has been wildly up and down in this series, and we’ve seen it all, with a borderline shootout in Game 1, followed by a 103-93 rock fight. The Under is 3-2 across the first five games, and a line of 219.5 for tonight’s total is the lowest in the series so far for most sportsbooks.

The Grizzlies’ best chance of staying alive and forcing a Game 7 is to keep a high pace all night, and I expect the visitors to get out in transition at every opportunity, even off the Lakers’ made baskets. That should lead to more shot attempts, keeping the Over in play.

The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games when playing on one day’s rest, and it’s reasonable to think that James will have a more efficient scoring night after looking every bit of his 38 years of age on Wednesday.

Grizzlies vs Lakers betting trend to know

The Lakers have trended towards high-scoring contests after ATS losses lately. The Over is 5-1 in their last six games when they haven’t covered the spread in their previous outing. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Lakers.

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