Figuring out tonight’s Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons game requires debating the cost of Cleveland being on the second night of a back-to-back against Detroit's loss of star guard Cade Cunningham.
Which drawback impacts more?
My Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions see one opportunity to make the most of both supposed obstacles, betting the falling total before tip at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Read more in my NBA picks for Friday, March 28.
Cavaliers vs Pistons prediction
My best bet: Over 227.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Two thoughts combine here, both supporting this bet that many may scoff at with Cade Cunningham sidelined for the third game in a row by a calf contusion.
Losing Cunningham obviously hurts the Detroit Pistons' offense. Across the season, the Pistons are 2.7 points better in offensive rating with him on the court rather than off it, but there may still be an overreaction to his absence.
Without the star point guard, the Over has gone 1-1 in Pistons’ games this week. The first contest without Cunningham saw its pregame total fall by 5.5 points, only to clear the total by more than 40. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s game against San Antonio went well below its total because the Pistons’ defense absolutely stifled the Spurs.
Do not expect the Cleveland Cavaliers to be stymied.
The total dropping with Cunningham sidelined — tonight’s total is 6.5 points lower than the matchup between these two teams on Feb. 5 — makes sense, but it is also an overreaction.
Less Cunningham means more Malik Beasley shooting. Less Cunningham means more Dennis Schroder pace.
These are still NBA players, and they are still some of the best in the world at putting the ball in the bucket. Cunningham’s shots do not disappear into a vacuum. There may be fewer free throws attempted, but otherwise, Detroit will still get looks at the hoop.
When Cleveland is tired, it also tends to lapse on defense first. That is not terribly surprising since Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland man the backcourt. In 14 back-to-backs this season, the Cavaliers have cashed the Over on the second night in 10 of them.
Trusting that trend makes sense tonight, even without Cunningham on the other side of the court, especially as this total has fallen by three points since Thursday.
Cavaliers vs Pistons same-game parlay
Over 227.5
Cavaliers moneyline
Malik Beasley Over 1.5 assists
The Cavs should win this game, if for no other reason than the Pistons’ clutch-time buckets may be hard to come by. Furthermore, Cleveland is 11-3 outright on the second night of back-to-backs this season.
Without Cunningham around, Beasley handles the ball more than his usual catch-and-shoots. In seven games without Cunningham this season, the shooting guard has averaged 3.1 assists, compared to just 1.6 in 66 games with Cunningham.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cavaliers vs Pistons odds
Cavaliers vs Pistons live odds
Cavaliers vs Pistons opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland -7 | Detroit +7
- Moneyline: Cleveland -300 | Detroit +240
- Over/Under: Over 230.5 | Under 230.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Cavaliers vs Pistons spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland opened as a 7-point favorite a couple of hours after it beat the Spurs by eight. Yet, the spread fell to -6 by morning and then valleyed at -5.
- The spread rallied to -5.5, still arguably too much of an adjustment for the Cavs being on the second night of a back-to-back, given that was already baked into the number when it was released.
- This total opened at 230.5 late on Thursday, long after Cunningham had already been ruled out for tonight’s game. The total fell to 227 by Friday morning and steadied at 227.5.
Cavaliers vs Pistons trend
Cleveland has won its last 12 games against Detroit. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Pistons.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Pistons
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Friday, 3-28-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Ohio, FanDuel Sports Network Detroit X |
Cavaliers vs Pistons latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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