The Oklahoma City Thunder have been waiting. They have been sitting on their hands for a full week. The youngest team in the NBA is not used to waiting this long for anything and certainly not for its next chance at playoff glory.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played two games in that week, pushing late into Friday night. The NBA did Memphis no favors by demanding it head to Oklahoma City for a noon tip local time just barely more than 36 hours later.
My Grizzlies vs. Thunder props and NBA picks doubt Memphis’ want-to in this moment, effectively a schedule loss that should lead to some feeling out more than anything else.
Best Grizzlies vs Thunder props
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Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points (+140 at bet365) -
Edey Under 11.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365) - Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (-110 at bet365)
Grizzlies vs Thunder player props for April 20
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points (+140 at bet365)
The presumptive MVP has been waiting for two weeks for this action. The Oklahoma City Thunder had the No. 1 seed so wrapped up, they sat Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for the final three games of the season.
That alone might be reason to bet on him to erupt in this Game 1. His game is not as reliant on rhythm as most other superstars. That is not meant as a criticism, only a reality.
SGA averaged 32.7 points this season while making only 2.1 threes per game. He gets to the rim. He gets to the free-throw line. That is how he scores.
And, while we're here, let’s be clear: Not even this Timberwolves season-ticket holder thinks SGA is a “free throw merchant.” That was an excellent chant originating one section away in Target Center, but SGA does not hunt for fouls. He simply plays quicker than most defenders, and he should be praised for that.
With the Memphis Grizzlies a step slow on this quick turnaround, that speed should dictate the game even more than usual.
SGA’s points prop is set at 32.5 with the Over at -115 at bet365. Asking for one more bucket from him is certainly worth 55 cents.
Zach Edey Under 11.5 rebounds (-130 at bet365)
Quick rule of thumb: Every time this handicapper is assigned a Grizzlies game this postseason, an Edey Under will come with it.
Zach Edey will be a quality NBA player with a long career, but he's too inexperienced right now to mentally make up for his physical slowness. When a player gets ahead of the game mentally, his physical sluggishness matters less. See: Steven Adams, Kyle Anderson.
Edey does not have that basketball intellect yet. That is not a fault. He is a rookie. He is not supposed to have that basketball intellect yet.
Edey may be bigger than anyone on Oklahoma City. Actually, let’s phrase that more genuinely: Edey is bigger than anyone on Oklahoma City, but the Thunder’s bounty of wings will run him off the court.
Who can Edey be trusted to defend on OKC? The only answer is Chet Holmgren, but Holmgren plays more like a wing on offense than a big man. Dragging Edey out to the perimeter removes one of Edey’s redeeming skills, his rim protection and rebounding.
Maybe Grizzlies interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo digs his heels in and insists on playing Edey. Doing so will only forecast the rest of the series. More likely, Memphis has to start experimenting in Game 1.
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (-110 at bet365)
That doubt in Edey can also be capitalized on via faith in Chet Holmgren. He took 3.6 threes per game this season, making 37.9% of them. That 1.4 made threes per game fits right in line with this prop, and that's before factoring in the offensive asset that will come the Thunder’s way by dragging Edey away from the hoop.
Furthermore, Holmgren grew into his shooting this season, understandable for a shooter coming off a long injury absence. In the last month of the regular season, Holmgren hit multiple threes in six of his 12 games, including three of his last four.
Most notably, his 3-point percentage climbed to 44.4% in the last month. Holmgren’s increased volume and better accuracy are offensive ingredients that OKC should emphasize this postseason, particularly when it pulls someone like Edey away from the rim.
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