Grizzlies vs Warriors Picks and Predictions: Bet Grizz to Bounce Back

The Memphis Grizzlies are fresh off a rough 20-point loss against the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday, and the schedule doesn’t get much easier with Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors up next. 

While the Grizzlies are on the second night of a back-to-back, the Warriors haven’t played since beating the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday. Will Memphis be able to shake off some tired legs to cover against Golden State? The betting odds have the Dubs as a 5-point home favorite, but you’ll have to read our Grizzlies vs. Warriors picks and predictions for Thursday, October 28 to find out if Golden State is laying too many points. 

Grizzlies vs Warriors odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

There seems to be a reaction to last night’s loss to the Blazers, as the Grizzlies have gone from getting 5 points to getting 5.5 or 6. A lot of the bets so far have come in on Golden State, but it’s unclear if it’s sharp money or just public money moving the line. The total, which opened at 233.0, is now down to as low as 229.5 or 229.0. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Grizzlies vs Warriors predictions

• Grizzlies +6.0 (-110)
• Under 229.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Poole Over 3.5 Assists (+128)

Predictions made on 10/28/2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Grizzlies vs Warriors game info

• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Thursday, October 28, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports Southeast - Memphis

Grizzlies vs Warriors betting preview

Injuries

Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks F (Out)
Warriors: James Wiseman C (Out), Klay Thompson G (Out), Jonathan Kuminga F (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Grizzlies are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games following a loss by 10 or more points. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Warriors.

Grizzlies vs Warriors picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Grizzlies lost by 20 against the Blazers in Portland last night, but it should simply be chalked up as an uncharacteristically poor offensive performance by Memphis. Jaren Jackson Jr. and De’Anthony Melton, who are both rock-solid outside shooters, combined to go 1 for 12 from the outside against Portland, and Memphis shot 36.5% from the field overall in that loss. The Grizzlies had the league’s best offensive rating heading into that game — and still do — so that’s not the type of performance you should expect from Taylor Jenkins’ team moving forward. 

Look for Memphis to bounce back immediately in this meeting with Golden State. While Stephen Curry is the most explosive player in the world, Ja Morant isn’t the type of player that is going to get outdone very often. Sure, Curry will have some of his patented three-point barrages in this game, but Morant will also have his own stretches of excellence. That should help the Grizzlies withstand what Curry throws at them. 

It’s also worth noting that Memphis has been a good road team under Jenkins, going 17-7 against the spread when playing as a road ‘dog of six or less points. Golden State has one of the best home crowds in basketball, but the Grizzlies know how to keep their composure in hostile environments and should be able to stay poised here. 

All in all, the Warriors are probably more likely to come away with the straight-up win in this game, but it should come down to the last couple of possessions. That makes Memphis a great value with the points. 

Prediction: Grizzlies +6.0 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has hit in each of the last three games that Golden State has played, and the total also went Under in three of the four meetings between the Grizzlies and Warriors last year. On top of that, the one game that went Over the total was a game in which they combined to score only 229 points, a notch lower than the total set for this game. 

Since Jenkins took over as Memphis’ coach, the Under is 28-15 when the Grizzlies are coming off a loss by 10 points or more. The average score in those games had the teams combining to score 220.3 points per game, so you should expect Memphis to come back with a renewed focus on the defense end. 

Also, while the Warriors are sixth in the league in pace of play, the Grizzlies are currently 14th. Memphis is going to try to slow this game down a little, and that gives the Under solid value here.

Prediction: Under 229.5 (-110) 

Best bet

Poole is coming off a game in which he had seven assists in a win over the Thunder, and he now can get you plus money if he has at least four assists against the Grizzlies. 

Obviously, Curry is going to have the ball in his hands a lot in this game, but Poole has a usage rate of 28.8 percent this season. That’s the 31st-highest number in the league thus far, so Golden State is giving its breakout player a ton of on-ball reps, to which he’s responded with a 4.3 assist per game average. 

In this game, Poole will definitely need to score if the Warriors are going to win, but he’ll also look to make plays for his teammates. And being that Memphis has the worst defensive rating in basketball, he should be able to get past his defenders and into an area where it’ll be easy for him to either kick to a shooter or find a cutter. 

Pick: Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Assists (+128)

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