Two teams that are battling for positions in the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament will face off in an important matchup tonight as the Miami Heat host the Atlanta Hawks.
Although Miami enters with a two-game winning streak, I’m taking Atlanta to walk away with a road win in my Hawks vs. Heat predictions below.
Keep reading to see my free NBA picks for Thursday, March 27.
Hawks vs Heat prediction
My best bet: Hawks moneyline (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Miami Heat may be riding consecutive wins, but that comes following an ugly 10-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks have covered in four straight contests, including two in which they were underdogs.
Both teams have seen their teams go through changes over the past couple of months, but it has been the Hawks that have weathered them more successfully. While the Heat put in an outstanding defensive performance on Tuesday against Jimmy Butler and the Golden State Warriors, they’ve been a shell of the team they were since the star left Miami — and it’s notable that the Warriors didn’t have Steph Curry available for that matchup.
Trae Young (24.1 ppg) has always been the heart of the Hawks, particularly offensively, where he also averages 11.4 assists per game. On the defensive end, Dyson Daniels is leading the NBA in steals with 3.1 per game, a stunning number when you consider that nobody else in the league has as many as 2.0 per night.
I also still have serious concerns about Miami's offensive production. Over their last 10 games, the Heat have only gone above 110 points three times and are averaging just 103.7 ppg during that span. Outside of Tyler Herro (23.4 ppg), the Heat are struggling to find consistent scorers.
The Hawks have been the better team this season, and I’m taking them to win this one outright in Miami.
Hawks vs Heat same-game parlay
Hawks moneyline
Over 225.5
Trae Young Over 24.5 points
If the Hawks are going to win this game, it will be by playing their brand of basketball, which means a fast pace of play and plenty of scoring. That’s why I’m taking the Over tonight, which correlates well with an Atlanta win. The Over is 4-0-1 in Atlanta’s last five games, and the Over is 4-1 in the last five games the Hawks have won.
I’ll also take Young to record at least 25 points tonight. While the Hawks star fell short of that number on Tuesday against the Houston Rockets, that came after four consecutive games in which he scored at least 25 points. Young is averaging 25.5 ppg in March, and if this game has the pace I expect, he should eclipse this prop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Hawks vs Heat odds
Hawks vs Heat live odds
Hawks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +1.5 (-110) | Miami -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +100 | Miami -120
- Over/Under: Over 228 (-110) | Under 228 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hawks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Hawks are an even 36-36 against the spread this season, while the Heat have put up a 32-39-1 ATS record on the year.
- Atlanta is 2-1 against Miami this season, and the Heat have also covered in two of those three contests.
- The Over has a 42-27-3 record when the Hawks play, and a smaller 37-35 edge in Heat games this season.
- Miami is playing to an average total of 219.5 ppg this year, with Atlanta averaging an O/U of 236.9.
Hawks vs Heat trend
Atlanta has won seven of its last 10 games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Heat.
How to watch Hawks vs Heat
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network SE-Atlanta, FanDuel Sports Network-SU |
Hawks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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