Both the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are down the faces of their franchise for this matchup as they try to climb the Eastern Conference standings for a shot at making the playoffs.
With a trade likely coming for the suspended Jimmy Butler, and Joel Embiid resting in this matchup, I’m expecting both teams to rely on their star guards from Kentucky to carry the offensive load.
My Heat vs. 76ers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, February 5 expect a high-scoring game.
Heat vs 76ers prediction
My best bet
Over 217 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
No Jimmy Butler or Joel Embiid? No problem for Over bettors.
Both of these teams are more than used to it at this point and have been allowing their electric guards, who happened to both play for John Calipari at Kentucky, to be the stars of the show.
With Tyrese Maxey carrying the offense for the Philadelphia 76ers and Tyler Herro levelling up as the key cog for the Miami Heat, these two teams are a combined 53-42-3 betting the Over this season, and they’re only getting better.
Since January 14, they’re a combined 16-6 betting the Over, and Philadelphia has hit it in four of its last five outings. While this season hasn’t gone the way Nick Nurse had hoped with Philly just 11th in the East, Maxey has taken yet another step forward in his development.
He’s fourth in the NBA in ppg (27.8) and has helped Philly’s offense take it up a notch with each passing month. After averaging just 104.5 ppg in November, the 76ers have added nearly two points to their average in each passing month — putting up 110.4 in December, 112.2 in January, and now 114 in February.
That’s coincided with the teams shooting getting a boost — the 76ers hit 46.9% from the floor and 37.2% from deep in January, up from their season averages of 45.6% and 35.2%. However, defense remains the reason the 76ers are just 7-12 since the beginning of 2025.
Over its last 19 games, Philadelphia is giving up 116.5 ppg, up from its season average of 112.7, and its contributed to the team dropping to just 23rd in defensive rating (115.9). Slowing teams from behind the arc has been a major issue with opponents hitting better than 38% from distance since the start of January.
That bodes well for Herro and the Heat, who rely heavily on 3-point shooting. Miami is hitting the sixth-most threes per game in the NBA (14.3) and Herro is sixth himself in 3-pointers per game (3.8).
He’s not alone either with Duncan Robinson, Nikola Jovic, Alec Burks, and Haywood Highsmith all hitting over one three per game and shooting better than 38% from deep. Miami’s long ball will be just as important to this Over hitting as Maxey keeping up his dynamic scoring.
Heat vs 76ers same-game parlay
Over 216.5
Tyrese Maxey Over 30.5 points
Kel’el Ware Over 9.5 rebounds
Not many players have steadily improved like Maxey has since entering the NBA four seasons ago. His points per game has gone up each year and he’s hitting a career-high 3.3 threes per game this season.
With Embiid resting, he should have no problem going for more than 30 against Miami. He’s been on a tear as of late with two 40-plus-point performances in his last five games. And Over his last nine games, he’s averaging 34.1 ppg.
Slowing Maxey is going to be an issue for Miami, but with Embiid out, the Heat can expose the 76ers down low with rising rookie Kel’el Ware.
The first-round pick has been shining since taking on a larger role in mid-January. He’s gone Over 9.5 rebounds in seven of his last 11 games while averaging 9.8 per game.
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Heat vs 76ers odds
Heat vs 76ers live odds
Heat vs 76ers opening odds
- Spread: Miami -1 | Philadelphia +1
- Moneyline: Miami -115 | Philadelphia -105
- Over/Under: Over 216 | Under 216
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat opened between a 1 and 1.5-point road favorite with the line seeing minimal movement.
- Miami and Philadelphia are among the worst teams ATS in the NBA with the Heat sitting at 20-28 and the 76ers even worse at 19-28-2.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 214.5 and has steadily climbed up to as high as 217 at some books.
- With the Heat 27-21 betting the Over and the 76ers 26-20-3, these are two of the best Over teams in the NBA.
Heat vs 76ers trend
The 76ers have hit the Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. 76ers.
How to watch Heat vs 76ers
| Location | Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN SU, NBCSP |
Heat vs 76ers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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