Heat vs Bucks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Tired Bucks Can't Handle Heat

This may sound like an insult to Jimmy Butler, but it is meant as a compliment to the Miami Heat and their claimed culture: The advanced numbers do not change when Butler is out. Miami remains the slightly above-average team it is with him.

Yet, the Milwaukee Bucks are three-bucket favorites on the second night of a back-to-back tonight. The NBA odds have been inflated by Butler’s bereavement absence, creating value for our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Heat vs the Bucks on February 13.

Heat vs Bucks odds

Heat vs Bucks predictions

Logically, two factors have inflated this spread. First off, Milwaukee blew out Denver last night, 112-95, entering the fourth quarter with a 28-point lead. Thus, no Milwaukee Bucks player logged more than 30 minutes, and only three played more than 25. In theory, Milwaukee is as rested as it can be on the second night of a back-to-back.

So it was not too surprising to see this spread climb to -8.5 early on Tuesday after opening at -6.5 before the Bucks dusted the Nuggets. Bettors saw that blowout and assumed value for Milwaukee.

But, the Bucks did still play last night. They did still go through the day of prep. They were still wired after the game and didn’t get to bed immediately. They are still a bit sore today.

The frets of a back-to-back are not tied solely to minutes played. The mere demands of readying for a game two days in a row exact some wear.

Secondly, Jimmy Butler will be away from the Miami Heat for an indefinite amount of time after the death of a family member. Obviously, basketball should come second. If Butler needs an extended period of time before he returns to the court, the Miami organization will undoubtedly encourage him to take it.

And it will be able to handle that on the court.

The Heat have been without Butler in about a third of their games this season, 16 out of 53. That is enough of a sample size to put some faith in the numbers. And the numbers say Miami doesn’t change with or without Butler. If any argument is going to be made, it is that the Heat are better without Butler.

1. Pace with Butler: 96.07 vs. pace without Butler: 96.1

2. Offensive rating with Butler: 114.8 vs. offensive rating without Butler: 114.3

3. Defensive rating with Butler: 115.4 vs. defensive rating without Butler: 114.2

4. Net rating with Butler: -0.6 vs. net rating without Butler: +0.1

Now, let’s not get carried away. Miami is better when Jimmy Butler is on the court. Its ceiling is certainly significantly higher.

But it is also used to playing without Butler and does it well enough that no spread should be boosted because of the wing’s extended absence. That lesson was clear just on Sunday, when Butler’s initial absence boosted the spread from +6 to +8 as the Heat faced the Celtics. Miami lost by four.

Sound familiar?

This spread has been inflated by two causes, and neither one should have raised it.

My best bet: Heat +8.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Heat vs Bucks same-game parlay

Heat +8.5

Damian Lillard Under 3.5 made threes

Damian Lillard Over 24.5 points

+619 at FanDuel

If missing Butler should show up in any one specific area, it should be Miami’s defense of Milwaukee’s best playmaker. Particularly, Damian Lillard may be able to force the defense into compromised positioning.

Heat defensive mainstay Bam Adebayo may be pulled away from the hoop by Brook Lopez and/or Giannis Anteteokounmpo. Without Butler providing broad defensive coverage, as well, Miami will need to be precise in its assignments. If and when Lillard finds gaps, he should be able to get to the rim.

He’ll need to get to the rim because Lillard has not been chucking well from deep since returning from a bum ankle, going just 4-of-13 from beyond the arc in the last two games. He hasn’t been shooting well for weeks, in fact. Go back to Christmas, and Lillard has shot just 30 percent from deep while taking 8.2 threes per game, making 2.5.

Betting on Lillard to continue that uncharacteristic shooting yet score well tonight creates a counter-intuitive same-game parlay with boosted value.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Heat vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis

Miami is 24-28-1 against the spread this season, a point of context to keep in mind when realizing the Heat are 10-6 ATS without Butler this season, including 9-3 since Dec. 20. They are 5-5 ATS as two-score or more underdogs without Butler, including 4-2 since Dec. 20.

In other words, the market regularly overestimates the impact of Butler’s absence.

Miami always trends toward an Under, 32 of 53 games falling short of their totals. But it still warrants notice that 11 of the Heat’s 16 games without Butler have gone Under their totals, including seven of their last nine.

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Heat vs Bucks betting trend to know

Miami is 3-3 straight-up since Dec. 20 when without Butler and an underdog of at least four points. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.

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